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HOT TOPICS

Politics, not economics, weighing on EUR

The Eurozone’s economics would seem to suggest a stronger currency, but instead the continent’s political problems are weighing the single currency down.

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What do the market experts predict for 2017?

What’s likely to happen in the FX markets this year. Much depends on how the Trump presidency and the Chinese economy work out.

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How did the currency pundits do in 2016?

It’s that time of year again when I do my favorite column, in which I ask: how did the FX experts perform last year? I’m going to look at the “market consensus” forecast for currencies at the beginning of 2016 to see what value

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Trump wins stunning upset victory; US policy uncertainty increases

Donald Trump won a stunning upset victory in the US Presidential election. The Republican Party also retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, so that gives them a clean sweep of the US government.

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What will happen in the markets after the election?

Investors may be wondering what is likely to happen in the financial markets after the US Presidential election. We know roughly what’s likely to happen, because we saw some natural experiments recently.

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Outlook for pound reverses; watch for short-covering rally

There were two major changes in the outlook for the pound Thursday. First, the UK High Court ruled against the government on Brexit.

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US Elections

The upcoming US elections are proving to be the most controversial elections to-date. With both Trump and Clinton identified as the presidential nominees for their respective parties, the result will indeed be an interesting one.

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GBP flash crash

Incredible volatility overnight! For no apparent reason, GBP just suddenly collapsed as computer-generated sell orders flooded the market. But just as the currency collapsed for no perceptible reason, it quickly rebounded for no reason either.

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OPEC agrees to cut output; news isn’t all it seems

There was some big news out overnight: OPEC agreed on a production cut! This is the first time in eight years they’ve agreed to something like that. Expectations for the informal meeting that took place yesterday were quite low, so oil prices shot up over 5% on the news.

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Clinton win is good for stocks, MXN, risk-sensitive currencies

Last night was the first of three US presidential debates. With the polls so close – Clinton leads by less than 2 percentage points -- the debates have the potential to sway the undecided voters and tip the election either way.

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Bank of Japan introduces “QQE with Yield Curve Control”

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today surprised the markets with yet another tweak of their monetary policy. As expected, it focused on the shape of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve, but it contained enough new and unexpected aspects to provide several surprises.

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BREXIT

Its been nearly 2 months since the historic Brexit vote and 6 weeks since the Bank of England issued a stronger response to the Brexit than many economists forecasted. The same policy makers are now having to assess whether their outlook requires a change in strategy.

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WHY TRADE ON OIL

If you are interested in buying or selling "oil," what should you do? You can't just buy "oil," like you can buy "gold," because there are so many different kinds of oil from different places.

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GO FOR GOLD

Gold - the investment of the Pharaohs. The precious metal has been highly valued since antiquity for its rarity and lustre.

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MARKET NEWS

UK Mortgages, Canada CPI, US New Home Sales

A relatively quiet end of the week with few indicators of any note and no speakers on the schedule. ...

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Weekly US Oil Inventory Data

There’s little on the agenda today. The major EU indicators will probably be out by the time you read this. ...

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FOMC Minutes, Ifo Index, US Existing Home Sales

The FOMC minutes today could rekindle expectations of Fed tightening. These have been quite volatile lately. Note how rate expectations came down suddenly after the 1 Feb ...

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Preliminary PMIs, BoE Gov. Carney Testimony, RBA Minutes & Gov. Lowe Speech

Things were quiet yesterday, what with little in the way of indicators and the US market on holiday, but today is likely to be much more exciting. ...

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UK Retail Sales, US Leading Index; Japan Trade Balance

After a few days with a flurry of indicators, today is rather quiet on the scheduled news front. ...

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G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting; US Housing Starts

The G20 Foreign Ministers meet in Bonn today and tomorrow. The focus of discussions will apparently be fighting poverty in Africa, so it might not cause that many waves i ...

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2nd Installment of Yellen Testimony; US CPI, Retail Sales; Australia Employment

The main point of interest today will again be Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress. The second day tends not to be as exciting as the first day however as the statem ...

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Yellen Testimony, UK CPI, ZEW Survey

The highlight today will be Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress (the Senate today, the House tomorrow). This is her first public speaking op ...

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Trump/Abe Meeting, UK Trade & IP, U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Yesterday’s schedule was pretty empty, but today we have a lot more to look forward to. ...

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No Major Indicators

The major events of the day – the RBNZ meeting and the German trade balance – will be out of the way by the time trading begins in earnest in Europe. The German trade sur ...

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