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HOT TOPICS

Politics, not economics, weighing on EUR

The Eurozone’s economics would seem to suggest a stronger currency, but instead the continent’s political problems are weighing the single currency down.

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What do the market experts predict for 2017?

What’s likely to happen in the FX markets this year. Much depends on how the Trump presidency and the Chinese economy work out.

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How did the currency pundits do in 2016?

It’s that time of year again when I do my favorite column, in which I ask: how did the FX experts perform last year? I’m going to look at the “market consensus” forecast for currencies at the beginning of 2016 to see what value

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Trump wins stunning upset victory; US policy uncertainty increases

Donald Trump won a stunning upset victory in the US Presidential election. The Republican Party also retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, so that gives them a clean sweep of the US government.

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What will happen in the markets after the election?

Investors may be wondering what is likely to happen in the financial markets after the US Presidential election. We know roughly what’s likely to happen, because we saw some natural experiments recently.

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Outlook for pound reverses; watch for short-covering rally

There were two major changes in the outlook for the pound Thursday. First, the UK High Court ruled against the government on Brexit.

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US Elections

The upcoming US elections are proving to be the most controversial elections to-date. With both Trump and Clinton identified as the presidential nominees for their respective parties, the result will indeed be an interesting one.

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GBP flash crash

Incredible volatility overnight! For no apparent reason, GBP just suddenly collapsed as computer-generated sell orders flooded the market. But just as the currency collapsed for no perceptible reason, it quickly rebounded for no reason either.

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OPEC agrees to cut output; news isn’t all it seems

There was some big news out overnight: OPEC agreed on a production cut! This is the first time in eight years they’ve agreed to something like that. Expectations for the informal meeting that took place yesterday were quite low, so oil prices shot up over 5% on the news.

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Clinton win is good for stocks, MXN, risk-sensitive currencies

Last night was the first of three US presidential debates. With the polls so close – Clinton leads by less than 2 percentage points -- the debates have the potential to sway the undecided voters and tip the election either way.

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Bank of Japan introduces “QQE with Yield Curve Control”

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today surprised the markets with yet another tweak of their monetary policy. As expected, it focused on the shape of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve, but it contained enough new and unexpected aspects to provide several surprises.

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BREXIT

Its been nearly 2 months since the historic Brexit vote and 6 weeks since the Bank of England issued a stronger response to the Brexit than many economists forecasted. The same policy makers are now having to assess whether their outlook requires a change in strategy.

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WHY TRADE ON OIL

If you are interested in buying or selling "oil," what should you do? You can't just buy "oil," like you can buy "gold," because there are so many different kinds of oil from different places.

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GO FOR GOLD

Gold - the investment of the Pharaohs. The precious metal has been highly valued since antiquity for its rarity and lustre.

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MARKET NEWS

G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting, Trump/Merkel Meeting, US Industrial Production

As usual this week, events are more important than indicators. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting starts today, and Germany’s Chancellor Merkel ...

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BoJ, SNB, Bank Of England Meetings

Hot on the heels of the FOMC meeting, today we have not one, not two but three major central bank meetings! ...

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Netherlands Elections, FOMC Meeting, BoJ Meeting

Today is a big day both politically and economically. In Europe, the Netherlands elections will be closely watched as a precursor to the more important French elections n ...

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Trump/Merkel Meeting, ZEW Survey, US PPI

The main event of the day is not an indicator but rather the meeting between Trump and German Chancellor Merkel in Washington. The two are expected to discuss a wide rang ...

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UK Industrial Production, US Nonfarm Payrolls

It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: the US nonfarm payroll day! After Wednesday’s unexpectedly high ADP report (298k), economists have revised up their forecasts to ...

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ECB Meeting

The main, indeed almost the only, event of the day is the ECB Council meeting, and even that is likely to be rather tame. The ECB is unlikely to make any more changes in ...

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UK Budget, ADP Report, China Inflation

The main event today is the UK 2017/18 budget. It’s likely to be a bit less dramatic than previous episodes. Last fall’s Autumn Statement was an opportunity for the new C ...

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US, Canada and China Trade Balance, Japan Current Account

The big excitement for today is over already as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met overnight. The main European indicator of the day, German factory orders, is also ...

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Fischer & Yellen Speeches

The main event of the day is not an indicator, but rather a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. She will speak on the economic outlook at an Executives Club of Chicago even ...

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EU CPI, Canada GDP, Japan CPI

After yesterday’s relatively hectic schedule of indicators, today’s schedule is lighter but still has some important points. ...

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