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On 23 April 2017, the French electorate will vote for a new President. Whilst market pundits are split on who is likely to take the Presidential title, all agree that the vote outcome may mean bad news for the European Union and for the Euro.Read More
The Eurozone’s economics would seem to suggest a stronger currency, but instead the continent’s political problems are weighing the single currency down.Read More
What’s likely to happen in the FX markets this year. Much depends on how the Trump presidency and the Chinese economy work out.Read More
It’s that time of year again when I do my favorite column, in which I ask: how did the FX experts perform last year? I’m going to look at the “market consensus” forecast for currencies at the beginning of 2016 to see what valueRead More
Donald Trump won a stunning upset victory in the US Presidential election. The Republican Party also retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, so that gives them a clean sweep of the US government.Read More
Investors may be wondering what is likely to happen in the financial markets after the US Presidential election. We know roughly what’s likely to happen, because we saw some natural experiments recently.Read More
There were two major changes in the outlook for the pound Thursday. First, the UK High Court ruled against the government on Brexit.Read More
The upcoming US elections are proving to be the most controversial elections to-date. With both Trump and Clinton identified as the presidential nominees for their respective parties, the result will indeed be an interesting one.Read More
Incredible volatility overnight! For no apparent reason, GBP just suddenly collapsed as computer-generated sell orders flooded the market. But just as the currency collapsed for no perceptible reason, it quickly rebounded for no reason either.Read More
There was some big news out overnight: OPEC agreed on a production cut! This is the first time in eight years they’ve agreed to something like that. Expectations for the informal meeting that took place yesterday were quite low, so oil prices shot up over 5% on the news.Read More
Last night was the first of three US presidential debates. With the polls so close – Clinton leads by less than 2 percentage points -- the debates have the potential to sway the undecided voters and tip the election either way.Read More
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today surprised the markets with yet another tweak of their monetary policy. As expected, it focused on the shape of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve, but it contained enough new and unexpected aspects to provide several surprises.Read More
Its been nearly 2 months since the historic Brexit vote and 6 weeks since the Bank of England issued a stronger response to the Brexit than many economists forecasted. The same policy makers are now having to assess whether their outlook requires a change in strategy.Read More
If you are interested in buying or selling "oil," what should you do? You can't just buy "oil," like you can buy "gold," because there are so many different kinds of oil from different places.Read More
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G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting, Trump/Merkel Meeting, US Industrial Production
As usual this week, events are more important than indicators. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ meeting starts today, and Germany’s Chancellor Merkel ...
BoJ, SNB, Bank Of England Meetings
Hot on the heels of the FOMC meeting, today we have not one, not two but three major central bank meetings! ...
Netherlands Elections, FOMC Meeting, BoJ Meeting
Today is a big day both politically and economically. In Europe, the Netherlands elections will be closely watched as a precursor to the more important French elections n ...
Trump/Merkel Meeting, ZEW Survey, US PPI
The main event of the day is not an indicator but rather the meeting between Trump and German Chancellor Merkel in Washington. The two are expected to discuss a wide rang ...
UK Industrial Production, US Nonfarm Payrolls
It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: the US nonfarm payroll day! After Wednesday’s unexpectedly high ADP report (298k), economists have revised up their forecasts to ...
The main, indeed almost the only, event of the day is the ECB Council meeting, and even that is likely to be rather tame. The ECB is unlikely to make any more changes in ...
UK Budget, ADP Report, China Inflation
The main event today is the UK 2017/18 budget. It’s likely to be a bit less dramatic than previous episodes. Last fall’s Autumn Statement was an opportunity for the new C ...
US, Canada and China Trade Balance, Japan Current Account
The big excitement for today is over already as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met overnight. The main European indicator of the day, German factory orders, is also ...
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Fischer & Yellen Speeches
The main event of the day is not an indicator, but rather a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. She will speak on the economic outlook at an Executives Club of Chicago even ...
EU CPI, Canada GDP, Japan CPI
After yesterday’s relatively hectic schedule of indicators, today’s schedule is lighter but still has some important points. ...