Marshall Gittler has an innate intuition in the underlying forces that affect market movements. Follow Marshall’s Trading Insights to gain a deep understanding of the impact of central bank decisions, government announcements, employment rates plus many other critical indicators.

Identify the critical economic factors which determine the health of a nation’s economy, which in turn affect the value of the markets, and make the best trading decisions.

 
  • Friday, 17 February 2017

    UK Retail Sales, US Leading Index; Japan Trade Balance

    After a few days with a flurry of indicators, today is rather quiet on the scheduled news front.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 16 February 2017

    G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting; US Housing Starts

    The G20 Foreign Ministers meet in Bonn today and tomorrow. The focus of discussions will apparently be fighting poverty in Africa, so it might not cause that many waves in the FX market. The new US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, will attend the meeting and is reported to be planning to meet with... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 15 February 2017

    2nd Installment of Yellen Testimony; US CPI, Retail Sales; Australia Employment

    The main point of interest today will again be Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress. The second day tends not to be as exciting as the first day however as the statement is usually the same and it’s rare that any totally different questions would be asked. Nonetheless under interrogation the... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 14 February 2017

    Yellen Testimony, UK CPI, ZEW Survey

    The highlight today will be Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress (the Senate today, the House tomorrow). This is her first public speaking opportunity since the FOMC meeting on 1 February and the market will be interested to hear her take on things. Usually her prepare... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 10 February 2017

    Trump/Abe Meeting, UK Trade & IP, U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

    Yesterday’s schedule was pretty empty, but today we have a lot more to look forward to.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 09 February 2017

    No Major Indicators

    The major events of the day – the RBNZ meeting and the German trade balance – will be out of the way by the time trading begins in earnest in Europe. The German trade surplus is forecast to narrow somewhat, but that probably won’t be enough to make a dent in US pressure.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 08 February 2017

    US Oil Inventories, RBNZ Meeting, Japan Machinery Orders

    Not much on the schedule during the European day. Even during the US day, there are only two indicators out.... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 07 February 2017

    UK House Prices, US & Canada Trade Balance, Japan Current Account

    The day’s excitement is already over, following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting. There’s only second-tier data out today.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 03 February 2017

    US Nonfarm Payrolls

    It’s nonfarm payroll day again! This is generally the biggest indicator of the month. Today’s figure will probably be of less importance than usual, however, for three reasons.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 02 February 2017

    Bank of England Meeting, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI

    Today’s trading activity will be dominated by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and the release of the Bank’s quarterly Inflation Report. There’s a policy conundrum in the UK. On the one hand, the Bank is concerned about what Brexit means for the long-term health ... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 01 February 2017

    FOMC Meeting, UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing Index

    The main thing on today’s schedule, the FOMC meeting, could be somewhat of a non-event for the markets. There hasn’t been that much change in the data since the Dec.13-14 meeting and so there’s not likely to be much change in the view. The unemployment rate has ticked up while core PCE inflati... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 27 January 2017

    UK PM May Meets President Trump; US Q4 GDP & Durable Goods Orders

    The highlight of the day will be not an economic indicator, but rather a crucial political event: US President Trump’s first meeting as president with a foreign leader. He meets with UK PM May, who is eager to cement Britain’s “special relationship” with the US ahead of Britain’s exit from... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 26 January 2017

    UK Q4 GDP, US Advance Trade & Wholesale Inventories, Japan CPI

    The focus during the European day will be on the UK 4Q GDP figure. A 0.5% qoq rise would be only a small slowing from the previous two quarters (both +0.6% qoq) and show that the UK economy has so far weathered the Brexit shock successfully. That might make one think that the Bank of England could b... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 25 January 2017

    Ifo Indices, New Zealand CPI

    The European day starts off with the closely watched Ifo business indices. Yesterday’s German manufacturing PMI was expected to fall to 55.4 from 55.6 but instead surprised the market by rising to a relatively robust 56.5. The Ifo indices are general expected to rise but still, given the magnitude... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 24 January 2017

    Preliminary PMIs, UK Supreme Court Judgment on Brexit, Australia CPI

    We’ve got a fairly exciting day lined up today with several important indicators and the long-awaited UK Supreme Court decision on Brexit.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 20 January 2017

    Trump Inauguration, UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI & Retail Sales

    All eyes are on Washington today for the inauguration of President Trump. The inauguration speech will be closely analysed for the new administration’s priorities. According to press reports, the major theme will be defining Trump’s slogan, “Making America Great Again.” Apparently that refer... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 19 January 2017

    ECB Meeting, US Housing Starts & Permits, China GDP Data

    The main event of the day is the ECB meeting during the European afternoon. With credit growing and inflation at least back into positive territory, no change in policy is likely at this point. The meeting therefore might pass without much causing much volatility in EUR/USD.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 18 January 2017

    UK Employment Data, US CPI, Bank of Canada Rate Decision

    The pound surged Tuesday after UK PM May gave her long-awaited speech on Brexit. The bottom line: not worse than expected. There was some relief that she avoided stating any clear “lines in the sand” that would make negotiation impossible on several key points, such as migration, EU law and Brit... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 17 January 2017

    UK PM May’s Speech on Brexit; ZEW Index; US Empire State Manufacturing Index

    Before Christmas, UK PM May promised that she would make a major speech on her negotiating priorities for Brexit in the new year. She makes that speech today.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 06 January 2017

    NFP, Canada Unemployment & Trade

    It’s NFP day today! The monthly ritual of the nonfarm payrolls on the first Friday of the month. Thursday’s ADP report missed estimates and came in below recent levels at 153k, well off the 175k that the market was expecting. This may have lowered some of the back-of-the-envelope calculations th... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 05 January 2017

    UK Service-Sector PMI, US ADP Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

    The focus today will be on the ADP employment report. The market consensus for the figure is 175k, which would be in line with the recent nonfarm payroll (NFP) figures – last month was 178k. However, the so-called market consensus is derived from the forecasts put out some time ago by professional... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 04 January 2017

    UK Construction PMI, EU CPI, FOMC Minutes

    With the manufacturing PMIs behind us, the market will now be focusing on the US economy and especially the Fed. Yesterday’s robust ISM index and especially the much-higher-than-expected prices paid index, which rose to the highest level since 2011, have made another rate hike more likely, assumin... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 03 January 2017

    Germany CPI, US ISM Index, US Construction Spending

    Trading is likely to be quiet again today. Although most centers will be open for business, many market participants have taken the entire week off. Activity probably won’t get back to normal until next week.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 29 December 2016

    US Wholesale Inventories, Australia Credit Growth

    It’s likely to be a quiet session in Europe today as there isn’t much data out during the morning. I include EU money supply in the table but in fact it isn’t market affecting any more as ECB policy is now based on inflation, not controlling the money supply.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 28 December 2016

    BBA Mortgages, US Pending Home Sales, BoJ Meeting Minutes

    With trading thin and only second-tier indicators out today, don’t look for any fireworks. The BBA loans for house purchases are not as closely followed as the Bank of England’s more complete mortgage approval data, which come out about a week later. Yet the two follow each other quite closely.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 23 December 2016

    UK Q3 Current Account, Canada Oct GDP, US New Home Sales

    The markets are in full holiday mode by now, and today’s indicators, the day before the Christmas break, probably aren’t going to be enough to jolt them out of their narrow ranges.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 22 December 2016

    US Durable Goods, Canada CPI, US Personal Income & Spending

    There’s not much scheduled to make waves during the Asian and European days today, but when the US opens up for business there’s a flurry of indicators scheduled.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 21 December 2016

    US Existing Home Sales, US Oil Inventories, New Zealand GDP

    Another day with little of substance on the calendar. UK public sector borrowing is not normally a major market-mover, but I think investors are now more interested in how the fiscal/monetary mix is going in the post-Brexit era. UK Chancellor Philip Hammond has cut back on his predecessor’s pledge... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 15 December 2016

    Preliminary PMIs, SNB Meeting, Bank of England Meeting

    The European day starts with the preliminary PMIs from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. They’re expected to be largely unchanged. Given that they already show the economy in an expansive stage, that could be taken as good news and help the euro somewhat.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 14 December 2016

    UK Employment, US Retail Sales, FOMC Decision

    The outcome of the FOMC meeting is scarcely in doubt: the market assigns a 100% probability to a rate hike of 25 bps. The focus then will be on the commentary and the press conference afterwards.... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 13 December 2016

    UK CPI, ZEW Index, Japan Tankan

    The European session opens with the UK inflation data for November. Inflation is expected to continue to accelerate, particularly at the factory gate level. Eventually those pipeline inflationary pressures are likely to feed through to consumer inflation as well. The big question is how this data wi... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 02 December 2016

    UK Construction PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls; Austria, Italy Votes

    It’s NFP day! The market is looking for yet another strong rise in the number of jobs. Following the incredibly high ADP report, the market has revised up its forecast for the NFP number. It’s now at the 180k level that Fed Chair Yellen said back in August was unsustainably strong, yet here were... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 01 December 2016

    Final PMIs, US Construction Spending, Australia Retail Sales

    Today’s the day for the final manufacturing PMIs for those countries that announce preliminary ones (France, Germany, Eurozone as a whole and the US) and the manufacturing PMIs for the rest of the world.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 30 November 2016

    OPEC Meeting, ADP Employment Report, US Personal Income & Spending

    While today’s ADP report is the main indicator of the day, I would argue that the OPEC meeting is much more important. A Fed rate hike in December is now 100% certain, according to the interest rate market, so the course of oil prices is a much bigger "known unknown."... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 29 November 2016

    Germany CPI, 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP

    The German CPI today is the key EU statistic of the week. As usual, the day starts with the release of Saxony’s CPI, followed by other states and then finally the national figure. There’s no forecast for Saxony’s CPI, but investors watch the change closely – there’s a 91% correlation betwe... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 25 November 2016

    US "Black Friday", Japan National CPI

    Don’t look for much excitement today. Although technically the US markets are open, in fact a lot of people make a long weekend out of the Thanksgiving holiday and so activity in the US will be thin. The US bond market will more or less close by 2 PM New York time (1900 GMT).... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 24 November 2016

    Ifo Indices, Japan CPI

    No US indicators out today as it’s a national holiday, Thanksgiving. The attention will therefore focus on the European data.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 23 November 2016

    Preliminary PMIs, UK Autumn Statement, US Durable Goods Orders

    It’s a holiday in Japan today, so liquidity in the yen may be somewhat worse than usual. Also, US traders tend to leave their desks early so that they can get where they’re going in time for Thanksgiving tomorrow – this is the busiest day of the year for the US airlines. Thus with low liquidit... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 22 November 2016

    Canada Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence

    There’s not much on the agenda today. During the European morning, the UK public sector borrowing data is the only indicator out. That isn’t too much of a market-mover although ahead of the Autumn Statement tomorrow, people may be paying more attention than usual to the figure. A smaller borrowi... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 18 November 2016

    Draghi, Canada CPI, Japan Trade

    The schedule is fairly quiet today. The main event will be the speech early on by ECB President Draghi. Recent comments by ECB members have indicated a need to extend the Bank’s QE program when the Bank next meets on 8 Dec. For example, while Executive Board Member Yves Mersch said that the progra... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 17 November 2016

    UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts, Yellen Testimony

    The focus during European time will again be on Britain as UK retail sales for October are announced. All measures are expected to be higher, which could boost the pound. On the other hand, yesterday’s slightly better-than-expected UK employment data didn’t manage to push the currency back up to... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 16 November 2016

    UK Labour Market Data, US Industrial Production, Australia Employment Data

    The focus today will be on the UK as the European day starts with the country’s employment data. The report is not likely to move the needle either way however as both the claimant count rate and the unemployment rate are expected to remain the same (the former for the third consecutive month, the... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 15 November 2016

    US House Republican Leadership Election, US Retail Sales

    A busy day Tuesday. There are several important indicators out, but probably the main event will be the election of the leader of the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 11 November 2016

    U of M Sentiment Index, Japan GDP

    Well, after one of the most eventful weeks in recent memory (at least since the Brexit referendum result was announced in June!) we can look forward to a Friday with again little on the schedule.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 10 November 2016

    Waiting for Clarity on US Politics

    There are no major indicators on the schedule today, just second-tier data that normally wouldn’t have a lasting impact on the FX market.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 09 November 2016

    Post-Election Summary

    After worrying about the US election for so long, you may feel lost. What will you worry about now? Don’t worry, there’s always plenty to worry about.... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 08 November 2016

    German & UK Industrial Production, US Election, China CPI

    Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday! Or worried about for the last several months, in some cases.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 04 November 2016

    US Nonfarm payrolls, Canada Unemployment

    It’s NFP day! The US nonfarm payrolls come out today. As usual, this is the biggest indicator of the month. In their statement following the meeting on Wednesday, the FOMC said, “The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided,... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 03 November 2016

    Bank of England Meeting, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, US Factory Orders

    The focus today will be squarely on the UK as the only major economic indicator out during the European morning, the UK service-sector PMI, is followed by the last of this week’s four major central bank meetings: the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 02 November 2016

    FOMC meeting, ADP employment report

    Yesterday it was the BoJ and RBA, today it’s the US Fed. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today to set rates. Committee members have stressed that the meeting is “live,” that is to say, they could change rates if they want to, even though the meeting comes a week before the US... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 01 November 2016

    UK manufacturing PMI, US ISM, Canada GDP

    The big excitement of the day will be over by the time the European day starts: the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia meetings, plus the two series of Chinese PMIs. That should give investors a lot to think about as they get into the office Tuesday morning in Europe.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 27 October 2016

    UK Q3 GDP, US Durable Goods, Japan Inflation

    The European day starts out with Q3 UK GDP. It’s expected to decelerate sharply from Q2, but that would be no surprise to anyone, as the Brexit vote came on June 23rd, a few days before the third quarter started. So the quarter started with a bang. The sharp decline in the PMIs in July into contra... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 26 October 2016

    BBA Mortgage Approvals, US Wholesale Inventories, US Markit Service-Sector PMI, NZ Trade

    The European day starts with a British indicator, British Bankers’ Association (BBA) loan approvals for house purchases. This indicator, which covers mortgage approvals from the major banking groups in the UK, is not as closely watched as the Bank of England figures on the same subject (mortgage a... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 25 October 2016

    Ifo Indices, Richmond Fed Survey, Australia CPI

    France announces two confidence surveys over the next 24 hours: manufacturing confidence this morning, and consumer confidence early tomorrow morning. Manufacturing confidence is forecast to be unchanged. That would be a little disappointing after the better-than-expected manufacturing PMI for Octo... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 21 October 2016

    UK PSNBR, Canada Retail Sales & CPI, Japan Trade

    Today is another quiet day during the European morning. The UK public sector net borrowing requirement may attract more attention than usual as the market tries to get a handle on UK fiscal policy. Historically, a narrower budget deficit tends to go along with a stronger pound, but this may be conf... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 20 October 2016

    UK Retail Sales, ECB Meeting, US Housing Starts

    Once again, the European day starts off with a UK economic indicator: UK retail sales for September. Sales are expected to be up on a mom basis, but for the yoy rate of increase to slow. However, it’s worth noting that the retail sales data has been especially volatile in recent months, so the ma... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 19 October 2016

    UK Labour Market Data, Bank of Canada Meeting, Third US Presidential Debate

    The European day starts out with the UK labour market data. It’s forecast to be astonishingly boring: the unemployment rate for August is forecast to remain at 4.9% for the fourth consecutive month, while the claimant count rate (like the initial jobless claims for the US, but expressed as a perc... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 14 October 2016

    US Retail Sales, U of M Consumer Sentiment Index, Speech by Fed Chair Yellen

    Another relatively quiet day in Europe, with no major economic indicators or central banks speeches expected during the European day.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 13 October 2016

    Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly US Oil Statistics, China CPI

    It’s an exceptionally quiet day today. The only statistics due out during the European/US trading time are weekly US data: the initial jobless claims and the weekly oil inventory data, which are being released on Thursday instead of Wednesday because of the holiday in the US on Monday.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 12 October 2016

    EU Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes

    There are only second-tier indicators out today. The European day starts with EU industrial production. Estimates have been revised up sharply since last Friday, from +0.7% mom to +1.5% mom. With data for the four biggest EU economies – Germany, France, Italy and Spain – already out, it’s unli... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 11 October 2016

    ZEW survey, NFIB small business optimism, Japan machinery orders

    The European day starts off with Germany’s ZEW survey. This will provide us with an early view on business sentiment for October, although of course it’s the view of analysts, not people directly involved in industry. It’s forecast to be little changed and should therefore not give much impetu... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 7 October 2016

    UK Industrial Production, US Nonfarm Payrolls, end of IMF/World Bank Meeting, Second US Presidential Debate

    The week ends with a bang. In fact, investors won’t be able to relax even during the weekend as there are market-moving events scheduled then, too.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 6 October 2016

    German Factory Orders, Swiss CPI

    Today is a relatively quiet one for indicators. German factory orders start the day off in Europe. They’re expected to be little changed on a mom basis but for the yoy rate of increase to accelerate, which could be positive for the euro. The Ifo manufacturing new orders index rebounded from -7.4 t... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 30 September 2016

    EU CPI, US Personal Income & Expenditure, Canada GDP; Japan Tankan

    The month and the quarter ends with a busy day of indicators. Ever-rising UK house prices are expected to rise at a slower pace in September, but still rise nonetheless. Yesterday’s report of falling mortgage approvals in August shows that the housing market is indeed cooling off, owing to the ris... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 29 September 2016

    German & Japanese CPI, US Wholesale Inventories and Pending Home Sales

    It’s inflation day! We get the CPI figures from Germany and Japan today. In addition, the third estimate of US 2Q GDP includes the personal consumption expenditure deflator, but as that probably won’t be revised, it’s not likely to be market-affecting.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 28 September 2016

    US Durable Goods, Informal OPEC Meeting, Yellen Testimony on Banking Supervision

    The European day starts out with two consumer confidence indices, that of France and Italy. They’re expected to be little changed. That could be taken as a good sign as they’ve been falling recently, in which case even an unchanged index could be perceived as EUR-positive. In any event, these in... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 27 September 2016

    Markit US Service-Sector PMI, Consumer Confidence

    The tone of the day will no doubt be determined by the outcome of the US presidential debate, which isn’t known at the time of writing. What is known is that markets in general prefer stability and known quantities than change and unpredictability.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 23 September 2016

    Preliminary PMIs, Canada Retail Sales & CPI

    Today we get the other feature for the week, the preliminary Markit PMIs for the major Eurozone countries and the US. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to be slightly lower, while the US PMI is expected to be slightly higher.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 22 September 2016

    Chicago Fed, EU Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales

    After all yesterday’s excitement, it’s back to normal today, or even a little bit quieter than normal. There are no major indicators out during the European day, and even a speech by ECB President Draghi comes in the late afternoon European time.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 21 September 2016

    BoJ, FOMC, RBNZ

    Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday! By the time you’re reading this, the Bank of Japan will have already announced its decision. Next comes the Fed. I went into some detail about the Fed’s decision in my “Week in Focus” on Monday and also made a video about it, so I won’t re... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 20 September 2016

    US Housing Starts & Permits, Japan Trade Balance, BoJ Policy Board Meeting

    Another quiet day in Europe and the US. The fun then starts overnight when the BoJ meets. There are no major European indicators out today. In the US, the only major indicator is the monthly housing starts & building permits. Housing starts are expected to be down a bit, while permits are expected ... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 16 September 2016

    EU Leaders’ Summit, US CPI

    After the relatively busy European day yesterday, there are no major indicators out during that time period today.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 9 September 2016

    UK Trade, Canada Housing Starts, EU Finance Ministers & Central Bankers

    The last of this week’s meetings: the Eurozone finance ministers & central bankers meet today in Bratislava, Slovakia. They’ll be joined tomorrow by their non-Eurozone EU colleagues. The group will discuss setting up a Eurozone fund to help the region in case of a financial shock, such as when o... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 8 September 2016

    ECB Meeting

    With no major European indicators out during the European morning, markets will be awaiting the results of the ECB meeting. Virtually no analyst expects any change in rates (well, one does), mainly because the economy is generally developing as they had expected when the last staff forecasts were ma... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 7 September 2016

    German, UK Industrial Production; Bank of Canada Meeting; Japan Current Account, China Trade

    The European day once again gets off to an early start with an early indicator from Germany. Industrial production is expected to have risen only marginally in July, following the unusually large rise in June. Will this affect the currency? Factory orders for July missed expectations yesterday but t... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 6 September 2016

    German Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, SNB President Jordan & SF Fed President Williams

    The big event of the day will already be over by the time the European day starts: the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. The European day starts with German factory orders. A small rise is expected after the similar decline in the previous month. Moreover, the German Ifo manufacturing survey ... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 2 September 2016

    UK Construction PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Canada Merchandise Trade

    The day starts out with the UK construction sector PMI. Having seen the stunning manufacturing PMI yesterday – it jumped 5 points to a higher level than before the Brexit vote – the market may have adjusted up its forecast for the construction PMI somewhat. Thus the index may have to exceed expe... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 1 September 2016

    China & UK PMIs; Final PMIs (Eurozone & US), US ISM Index

    It’s all about the purchasing managers indices (PMIs) today. China has started the day off already. During European time we get the final PMIs from the countries that we got preliminary ones from last week (France, Germany and Eurozone overall) plus the other European countries.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 31 August 2016

    EU CPI, ADP Report, China Manufacturing PMIs

    The European day starts with the UK Nationwide housing index, but as I discussed that yesterday, I’ll leave it alone today. After that comes the Germany employment data. This has a small but still significant effect on markets, with the usual change in EUR/USD being somewhere around 0.10% within ... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 30 August 2016

    Germany CPI, US & UK Consumer Confidence

    The European day starts with the German CPI data. As usual, each Lander issues its data and then the national CPI is released later in the day, so by that time, the market has a pretty good idea what it’s likely to be. As the graph shows, the Saxony CPI – the first to be released every month –... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 26 August 2016

    Yellen’s Speech, 2Q US GDP Revision

    There are several indicators coming out today, but they are unlikely to move the markets unless they deviate greatly from expectations. The most important point, as we’ve stressed before this week, is Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. After NY Fed President ... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 25 August 2016

    Jackson Hole Symposium, Ifo, Japan Inflation

    It may be that the most important event today isn’t something on the schedule. The Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium starts today. As everyone who’s anyone in central banking and economic academia gather for two days of discussion on "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future," ... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 24 August 2016

    US Existing Home Sales, Oil Inventories

    Another relatively quiet day on the schedule.The British Bankers’ Association data on loans for home purchases is expected to show a fall in home mortgages in July. This is somewhat at odds with the continued uptrend in the Nationwide house price index on a yoy basis, but would correspond with the... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 23 August 2016

    Preliminary PMIs

    It’s PMI day today and the preliminary estimates for the major European countries and the US are coming out today (Japan too, but nobody pays attention to that). Interestingly, the market consensus forecasts for several of the manufacturing PMIs have fallen since I put together this table on Frida... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 19 August 2016

    Canadian Retail Sales, CPI

    Today is just the kind of day you want on a Friday in the summer: not much on the schedule, so if you leave the office early, maybe nobody will notice! There are no major indicators out during the European day.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 18 August 2016

    UK retail sales, ECB meeting minutes, Philly Fed index

    Again, Britain takes the center stage as the retail sales figures for July are announced. The market expects that despite the post-Brexit turmoil, the British public indeed kept calm and carried on shopping. However, the expectation is that their enthusiasm did not bounce back to the levels of previ... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 17 August 2016

    UK Employment Data, FOMC Minutes, Japan Trade

    The post-Brexit data for the UK continues today with the data on those claiming unemployment benefits during July. The rest of the employment data – unemployment rate and average weekly earnings – is still for June. The market is looking the number of people claiming benefits to rise by 9,000, a... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 05 August 2016

    US Nonfarm Payrolls

    Here’s the statistic you’ve all been waiting for: the monthly US nonfarm payrolls! After two months of extreme volatility – a collapse to 11k in May, then soaring to 287k in June -- the market expects a more normal increase of 180k. That would be more or less in line with the six-month avera... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 04 August 2016

    Bank of England Meeting, US Factory Orders

    No debate about the big issue today: it’s the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). There’s no question that the BoE is going to do something, after a string of weak post-Brexit data convinced one of the biggest hawks (Martin Weale) to change his mind recently and come out in fav... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 03 August 2016

    Final PMIs & ISM Indices, US ADP Report, Weekly US Oil Inventories

    Today we get the final PMIs & ISM indices for July, the US ADP report, and the weekly US oil inventories data.... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 02 August 2016

    UK Construction PMI, US Personal Income & Spending

    The big event of the day is already over: the RBA meeting, the results of which were not known when this piece was written. Today the excitement is likely to be in Europe; the US indicators, if they come in as expected, are not likely to change anyone’s view on the outlook.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 28 July 2016

    German Inflation, Japan Inflation, Bank of Japan Meeting

    After yesterday’s busy day in the US, the focus today is in Europe and Japan. In the Eurozone, the market will be watching the gradual unfolding of the German CPI for July. As usual it starts with the state of Saxony announcing its figure until finally in the early European afternoon the national ... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 27 July 2016

    UK 2Q GDP, FOMC Meeting

    There’s a lot on the schedule today! The day starts out with Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence index and the French consumer confidence index from INSEE National Statistics Office. Both are modestly market-affecting. The market is looking for only a small fall in both of them, despite the Brexi... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 26 July 2016

    Markit US Services PMI, Conference Board Consumer Confidence

    There isn’t much significant data coming out during the European day, unless you have a position in the HUF, in which case the Hungarian central bank rate decision is important to you – but even there, no change is expected. The Belgian business confidence index is also coming out, and although ... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 22 July 2016

    Preliminary PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales & CPI

    It’s PMI day! The preliminary PMIs for the major industrial countries will be released. This time only, Markit will release a flash PMI for the UK together with the others “to help provide clarity on the potential impact of the UK’s EU referendum on the economy.”... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 21 July 2016

    UK Retail Sales, ECB Meeting, Philadelphia Fed Index

    As usual, a UK indicator will be the main event in the morning. Retail sales are expected to slow in June, perhaps in payback after the strong rises in April and May, perhaps because consumer were reluctant to go out shopping ahead of the Brexit vote. In retrospect maybe they should’ve shopped mor... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 20 July 2016

    UK employment data, EU consumer confidence, RBNZ special economic assessment

    Once again the UK is in the spotlight with the employment data for May and June. The headline three-month moving average of unemployment is expected to stay unchanged at 5.0% and the claimant count rate also is expected to remain stable. The other data is contradictory: jobless claims are expected t... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 19 July 2016

    UK CPI and German ZEW surveys

    The focus is in Europe today as the UK CPI and German ZEW surveys are the main indicators out today.... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 15 July 2016

    US Retail sales, CPI, Industrial Production

    Today is US economic indicator day! There are five major indicators coming out from the US all in the space of two hours.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 14 July 2016

    Bank of England MPC meeting; China GDP

    A big day coming up! It’s the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The BoE has held its base rate steady at 0.5% since March 2009. Finally it’s expected to change it, after BoE Gov. Carney said that “some monetary policy easing will likely be required over summer.” The qu... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 13 July 2016

    Bank of Canada Rate Announcement, Australian Employment Data

    The Bank of England releases its quarterly reports on credit conditions and on banks’ liabilities. Normally these reports are of interest largely to specialists, but this time around they may be of wider importance to the market as they will help the Bank assess what kind of response is necessary ... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 12 July 2016

    FXPRIMUS Indicators and Events for 12 July

    The focus today will be on talk, not numbers, as there are quite a few speakers during the day. BoE Gov. Carney will be center stage in the morning as he testifies in Parliament. He’s already given some big hints about what he plans for this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, but he could... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 08 July 2016

    UK Trade, US Nonfarm Payrolls

    We just can’t get away from Britain as the country reports its trade balance today. The deficit is expected to widen all around. This may be alarming, as the capital account inflows are not likely to increase any time soon – on the contrary, the gating of several commercial property funds indica... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 07 July 2016

    UK industrial production, ECB meeting minutes, Japan trade figures

    We can’t get away from focusing on the UK as today we get the UK industrial & manufacturing production figures for May. The figures are expected to be weak, following April’s remarkable rise. Does anyone need a new reason to sell sterling? GBP-negative.... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 06 July 2016

    US ISM non-manufacturing indices, FOMC minutes

    After several days of focusing on Europe, the data (at least) today is mainly in the US. The final Markit service sector PMI for June comes out, followed 15 minutes later by the more closely watched Institute of Supply Management (ISM) version of the same index. See our “FX Glossary” section for... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 05 July 2016

    UK service sector PMI, Bank of England Financial Stability Report, US factory orders

    The news flow today will focus on the UK even more than usual as not only the news flow, but also the European morning data will feature the sceptred isle.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 30 June 2016

    EU CPI, Japan CPI, Japan tankan

    The focus today shifts to Japan, where several important indicators are coming out overnight. The key one of course is the tankan, the Bank of Japan’s short-term survey of economic conditions. It’s expected to show a deterioration in sentiment, both among large manufacturers and non-manufacturer... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 29 June 2016

    German CPI, US Personal Income & Expenditure, Central Bank Chief Panel Discussion

    Again, any comments or developments from London or Brussels will probably be more important than the data. In fact that situation may continue for some time. As of the European close Tuesday however things were calming down and the “risk off” trade was beginning to wind down. Sterling was findin... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 28 June 2016

    European Council summit, US Consumer Confidence, SNB & Fed speeches

    Again, the data – mostly second-tier – is likely to take a back seat to developments in Britain and Brussels. The EU Parliament will vote on a resolution analyzing the outcome of the UK referendum and ways forward. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will give a policy speech on the future of the EU... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 24 June 2016

    Brexit all the way today!

    Once again, it’ll be Brexit all the way today. This comment is being written before the results are known, but on the assumption that the market was correct and they vote "Remain," I would expect to see a continuation of the relief rally. GBP, EUR and global stocks would benefit, while USD, JPY, C... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 23 June 2016

    UK Brexit referendum; preliminary European PMIs

    There are some other things on the schedule today, but of course the markets will be holding their collective breaths while waiting for the results of the Brexit referendum.While the polls continue to be too close to call decisively – the lead of one side or the other is usually within each po... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 22 June 2016

    Canada retail sales, US existing home sales, EC consumer confidence

    There are no major indicators during the European day Wednesday. When North America wakes up, the Canadian retail sales will be first on the agenda. Retail sales there shot up in January but have been slowing ever since. The market is looking for some rebound in April, which could support CAD – de... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 17 June 2016

    US housing starts, Canada CPI

    If you didn’t get a chance to read the full transcript of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference yesterday or the minutes of the Bank of England meeting, you may have an opportunity today. It’s likely to be much quieter today.... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 16 June 2016

    SNB meeting, BoE meeting, US CPI

    Continuing on with the string of central bank meetings, the European day starts with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting. Analysts unanimously expect no change in rates. The recent data has been encouraging, with the rate of deflation gradually diminishing and the manufacturing PMI rising for four... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 09 June 2016

    German & UK trade data, Canada new house price index, US wholesale inventories

    The German trade & current account balance starts the day off in Europe. Both surpluses are expected to fall substantially. This indicator doesn’t usually have that much impact on the FX market, but it’s important to watch anyway, because Germany provides the bulk of the Eurozone’s trade surpl... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 08 June 2016

    UK industrial production, RBNZ OCR decision, China CPI

    The day starts out with the industrial production data from the UK. German IP, released yesterday, was slightly better than expected, but recently German production has been doing better than UK production, so that doesn’t necessarily mean a better-than-expected outturn for the UK, especially as t... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 07 June 2016

    German IP, Japan GDP, Japan & China trade data

    While German industrial production is expected to have rebounded in April, I’m not sure that’s significant any more, given the sharp decline in factory orders during the month that was reported yesterday. Factory orders are a fairly good leading indicator of the trend in industrial production, s... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 03 June 2016

    US nonfarm Payrolls

    It’s NFP day today – the market will naturally focus on today’s nonfarm payroll figure. After yesterday’s astonishing spot-on ADP report – the first time I can remember the market consensus forecasting that particular indicator absolutely correctly – the market will be looking for a payr... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 02 June 2016

    ECB meeting, OPEC meeting

    A busy day in Vienna today with both the ECB meeting and the OPEC meeting taking place there! First up is the UK construction PMI. Ordinarily I’d say that if it’s unchanged, as the market expects, it could serve to support GBP, but since yesterday’s better-than-expected manufacturing PMI didn... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 01 June 2016

    UK housing data & manufacturing PMI, ISM index, Australia trade & retail sales

    The focus during the European morning is on the UK today. The European day starts with the Nationwide Building Society’s house price index, which is expected to show house prices continued to rise in May – don’t they always in the UK? – but at a slower pace than in April. The money supply fi... Continue Reading...

  • Tuesday, 31 May 2016

    EU CPI, US personal income & expenditure, China manufacturing PMIs, PM Abe speech

    The European day starts off a number of second-tier data releases. The main one to watch out for is German unemployment, which does have a noticeable impact on EUR/USD. It’s expected to show a drop in the number of unemployed, however a smaller drop than in the previous month, and an unchanged lev... Continue Reading...

  • Friday, 27 May 2016

    French consumer confidence, 2nd estimate of US GDP

    A fairly light schedule today. The only indicator out during the European morning is the INSEE index of French consumer confidence. French consumer confidence isn’t that great. In fact, according to the EU’s consumer confidence measure, which is not the one coming out today, French consumer conf... Continue Reading...

  • Thursday, 26 May 2016

    US durable goods, pending home sales; Japan CPI, G7 Summit

    There are no major indicators out during the European day Thursday. The second estimate of UK GDP will be released, but that’s more of interest to see the breakdown of growth rather than any major change in the estimated rate of growth. Thus the impact on the FX market should be marginal if at all... Continue Reading...

  • Wednesday, 25 May 2016

    Ifo indices, Bank of Canada meeting, US oil inventories

    The European day Wednesday starts with the Ifo indices. All of them are expected to rise. The ZEW expectations index was lower this month, but the PMIs rose, so the Ifo could indeed meet its forecast.... Continue Reading...

 

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