FXPRIMUS Weekly is your comprehensive technical and fundamental trading guide for the coming week! Access the latest news and in-depth technical indicator data, delivered by our market experts each and every week!
With a new week comes new market opportunities. Here’s a recap of what you may have missed, as well as some highlights of the week ahead of us:
Catching you up on last week:
- Equity markets have been rattled: DAX, Eurostoxx, and S&P500 down between 5% and 10% and below their 200 MA, while DJ30 has lost 17 weeks of gains in just 2.
- COVID-19 is spreading worldwide, hitting Europe at its heart with cases reported in a few countries
- OIL and NATGAS plunge on fears of weaker demand caused by the virus
- Emerging market currencies suffered the most; Honk Kong released a stimulus plan while South Korea left its Interest Rate unchanged Thursday
- We’ll continue to keep an eye on the virus, though both contagion and death rates in China are slowing.
- U.S. rates expectations: markets are pricing in a 0.25% cut by April; the 10-year yield (1.285%) is at its lowest level on record
- Manufacturing Data in China, due Monday morning, will be a key indicator of how the global economy is performing.
- Thursday, OPEC gathers to discuss cuts on oil supply
Let’s take a closer look…
Each week, we take a closer look at the markets that move, and those you may have missed!
The Singapore Dollar has suffered from the situation in Asia over the past month and a half. In this weekly chart, you can see the depreciation that has brought prices above the 3-year high against the USD and to a critical level (1.395). For next week, monitor the 1.3935-1.40 range, with possible spikes to 1.4025-50. To the downside, 1.3900 and 1.3860.
SOXX, the ETF tracking semiconductors has been one of the brightest stars in recent years but has recently shown signs of cracking. QCOM has seen volatility exploding last week (Bollinger Bands), breaking a fundamental trendline and now below the 66 and 120 EMAs. While 79.50 is an important support, the RSI is still not oversold. A plunge below the current level will mean 76.50, 73.50, 71.50 are in sight. To the upside, it may be difficult to rise above 85.
Before the OPEC meeting that will determine whether supply will be cut by 600k barrels a day, CL is dancing around a very long-term trendline, starting from 2016, while the fears of a global slowdown are weighing on it. Resistance is in the $49.5 area but the price could drop as low as $45 per barrel before rebounding.
Indices were hit last week, with America’s largest 9% from its tops and 150 points down from where it started the year. You can see that a key trendline has been broken, but the price has managed to rebound on the 120 EMA. RSI is at oversold levels: 3050 / 3060 must hold if we are to avoid bigger losses (3015 could be a further barrier). The 3160 mark will eventually be a difficult resistance to break.
Save The Date(s)
Here are the reports, meetings and other fundamentals to follow this week
|02/03/2020||01:45||Caixin Manufacturing PMI||CNY|
|03/03/2020||03:30||RBA Interest Rate Decision||AUD|
|04/03/2020||15:00||BoC Interest Rate Decision||CAD|
*All times are in UTC
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