Pasukan penyelidik pakar kami sentiasa bekerja sepanjang masa demi memberikan maklumat dalaman kewangan terbaik untuk anda, demi mempertingkatkan pengalaman dagangan anda. Semak imbas laporan khas kami demi meningkatkan kefahaman anda terhadap instrumen kewangan penting dan pergerakan pasaran yang menarik.

Lengkapkan diri anda dengan pengetahuan khusus demi membina sebuah pelan dagangan efektif dalam perjalanan anda menuju kejayaan bersama PRIMUS MARKET.

 

 

  •  


    The Bureau of Labour Statistic’s Nonfarm Payroll report was published last week, just a few days after the US Independence Day and a rather noiseless week on the economic calendar. Although NFP showed that the US economy continues to hire at a robust rate markets were surprised by an overshoot in Unemployment Rate to 4% and a slower than anticipated wages growth pace. Average Hourly Earnings rose by 5 cents to $26.98, a 2.7% YoY, or 0.2% MoM versus an expected 0.3%, driving Dollar down.



    With inflation increasing 0.2% last month, marking a May 2012 record and a change of 2.9% YTD, Fed remains indeed on track in delivering another interest rate hike, but with Dollar having been knee-jerked lower following the NFP it is certain that a good CPI report in July will have FOMC members returning back from the nascent sell-off more confident and anti-pressured.

    A positive Consumer inflation report this Thursday could see the markets returning back to pre-NFP levels and the probability of two more hikes increasing further. This should enable buck-dominated pairs to decline and position Dollar for decent longs as higher inflation will bring more pressure for hiking rates and drive Dollar’s value higher ahead of August 1st FOMC Meeting. If Core Inflation jumps from 2.24 to 2.3% then Core PCE, the Fed’s favourite inflation measure, will most likely reach the 2% target as it currently stands at 1.96%, lagging only 0.28%. This would imply a much stronger boost on the buck and further gains on increased chances of interest rate hikes, reiterating the Fed’s path to gradual policy normalisation.



    Stavros Tousios,
    FX Market Specialist.


    Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained here are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. FXPRIMUS does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


  •  


    Menurut Biro Statistik Buruh, pekerjaan Gaji Bukan Perladangan meningkat pada bulan Mei, mencapai 223K manakala Pendapatan Ikut Jam Purata meningkat kepada 0.3% (0.1% lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan) dan Kadar Pengangguran menurun kepada aras rendah 18 tahun pada 3.8%.

    Penganalisis menjangkakan bacaan utama 189K manakala BLS melaporkan bacaan yang jauh lebih baik, yang mungkin disemak semula semasa pengumuman NFP hari Jumaat.

    Pekerjaan berterusan meningkat dalam beberapa industri, termasuk perdagangan runcit, penjagaan kesihatan dan pembinaan.

     

     


    Perubahan AS dalam Gaji Bukan Perladangan pada masa ini meningkat daripada 159K pada bulan lepas, meningkat daripada 155K setahun lepas dan meningkat daripada purata 191K sepanjang dua bulan yang lepas, menandakan laporan kedua terbaik pada Suku 2 2018. Dengan bacaan utama semakin kukuh, bacaan penambahan kerja menjadi kurang penting dan peralihan yang ketara kepada upah kerana ia mendorong inflasi. Pelabur dengan sabar menunggu petunjuk dan bacaan utama. Tetapi bacaan utama sudah tentu tidaklah begitu penting.

     

    Perkara yang perlu ditumpukan pada laporan bulan Jun…


    1. Perbezaan Kadar Faedah AS dan EU semakin menjauh susulan FOMC bulan Jun: Dengan Dana Rizab Persekutuan meningkat kepada 2.0%, ahli FOMC mengulangi semula gambaran ekonomi AS yang kukuh dan melebarkan penyebaran antara kadar AS dan EU. Oleh itu, buat pesanan pendek bagi EUR/USD untuk mendapat faedah sekarang nampaknya lebih menguntungkan untuk pedagang bawa ke depan (carry trader). Euro lebih lemah sebanyak 190 pip berbanding pada 13 Jun pada 02.07.18, 16:11 (GMT+3).
    2.  

       

    3. Aras tinggi berbilang tahun bagi minyak dan penunjuk inflasi kegemaran Rizab Persekutuan, PCE: Dengan harga Minyak Mentah meningkat secara berterusan, inflasi tolakan kos juga meningkat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin perlahan buat sementara sehingga pelabur mula membuat kedudukan semula apabila harga lebih rendah. Tindakan Rizab Persekutuan untuk membentuk inflasi dengan menaikkan kadar, malah empat kali pada tahun ini mungkin sememangnya wajar. Tetapi, apabila untuk mencapai sasaran PCE yang begitu lama diharapkan, data tidak seharusnya diabaikan kerana kenaikan nampaknya tidak menahan harga minyak.
    4.  

       

    5. Ekuiti dan kesan dasar fiskal antarabangsa - "Peperangan Perdagangan":Rancangan AS yang terkini untuk mengehadkan pelaburan China di AS dan siasatan baru terhadap sehingga $350 bilion tarif terhadap import auto China telah menyebabkan saham AS menurun sejak beberapa hari lepas, di samping penurunan sejak beberapa minggu yang lepas, manakala Indeks Dolar meningkat secara beransur-ansur. Namun begitu, kebimbangan yang baru terhadap kebangkitan ketegangan perdagangan dengan China dan EU, rundingan semula perdagangan NAFTA dan politik Mexico mungkin akan diambil kira. Oleh sejak ekuiti menunjukkan prestasi yang lemah, keyakinan terhadap USD mungkin terjejas.
    6.  

       

    7. Bacaan upah dijangka sepadan dengan aras tinggi tahunan, kekurangan pertumbuhan membimbangkan: WDengan bacaan upah meningkat kepada 0.3% pada bulan lepas, peluang risiko adalah cukup kukuh untuk meningkatkan Dolar dan mengekalkan naratif ini dengan terdapatnya kebimbangan tentang peperangan perdagangan. Upah yang berkembang pantas telah menyokong dan juga diwajarkan dalam kadar faedah, namun persoalan sama ada panduan bulan ini perlu mendorong kadar faedah AS selanjutnya masih lagi sah, apabila kebimbangan tentang peperangan perdagangan menyebabkan perniagaan mengurangkan pengambilan.
    8.  

     

    ika anda ingin mengetahui lebih lanjut tentang Gaji Bukan Perladangan dan cara menganalisis pasaran secara teknikal dan fundamental sebelum NFP, sertai kami di webinar NFP kami secara langsung:



     


    Stavros Tousios,
    FX Market Specialist.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini adalah dibekalkan sebagai komentari pasaran umum dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak akan bertanggungjawab atas sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had terhadap, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang mungkin wujud secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau rujukan terhadap maklumat berkenaan.


  •  


     


    Saham Eropah & Asia meningkat pada hari Rabu, dibantu oleh perolehan kukuh yang tidak dijangka daripada sektor teknologi dengan Apple melebihi jangkaan yang lemah. Kini kebanyakan pelabur menumpukan perhatian pada bacaan KDNK zon euro dan mesyuarat Rizab Persekutuan AS, menjangkakan kenaikan kadar yang juga meningkatkan keyakinan pasaran yang membantu kenaikan saham.



    Dagangan produk margin melibatkan tahap risiko yang tinggi






     

    Saham Apple naik 8.1% selepas pengumuman perolehan yang lebih kukuh daripada jangkaan, mengejutkan pelabur. Selain itu, syarikat teknologi lain seperti STMicroelectronics, Infineon, BE Semiconductor dan ASML meningkat antara 1.1 hingga 3.8 peratus di sebalik kenaikan saham Apple yang meningkatkan keyakinan dalam pasaran.






    Berdagang ekuiti sebagai CFD bermakna anda berdagang bagi beberapa jenama paling popular di dunia dan mempelbagaikan portfolio dagangan anda. Nikmati koleksi tutorial bermaklumat kami yang meluas tentang Saham di sini


     


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini adalah dibekalkan sebagai komentari pasaran umum dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak akan bertanggungjawab atas sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had terhadap, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang mungkin wujud secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau rujukan terhadap maklumat berkenaan.

     


  •  


    Laporan pekerjaan bulan Mac yang dikeluarkan pada 6 April memberi pasaran kejutan penurunan, kejutan yang tidak memenuhi jangkaan sebanyak 85K, sementara ramalan pengangguran juga mengecewakan kerana ahli ekonomi telah meramalkan bacaan 4.0%.

    Penganalisis telah menjangka bahawa perubahan pekerjaan akan berada pada 188K tetapi sebaliknya bacaan 103K yang diperoleh.

    Kadar pengangguran kekal tidak berubah pada 4.1%, menandakan bulan keenam berturut-turut tidak berubah.

    Upah juga stabil, mencatatkan pertumbuhan 0.3%.

    Pekerjaan meningkat dalam pembuatan, penjagaan kesihatan dan perlombongan.



    Perubahan AS dalam Gaji Bukan Perladangan kini pada tahap 103K, menandakan suku terbaik sejak kemelesetan besar, namun bacaan pekerjaan bulan Mac mengecewakan. Situasi Pekerjaan untuk bulan April dijadualkan dikeluarkan pada hari Jumaat, 4 Mei 2018, pukul 12:30 tengah hari (GMT) dan para pelabur dengan sabar menunggu untuk menerima petunjuk dan bacaan utama. Tetapi adakah bacaan utama sahaja yang penting? Sudah tentu tidak.


    Perkara yang perlu ditumpukan pada laporan bulan April…

    1. Peralihan perbezaan Kadar Faedah AS dan EU: Sejak awal bulan April, Hasil AS 10 Tahun meningkat daripada 2.7298% kepada aras tinggi 3.0315% semalam, manakala Kadar Perbendaharaan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang mengecil. Dengan Hasil AS meningkat menandakan aras tinggi 4 tahun, perbezaan kadar faedah antara AS dan EU, kerana kadar EU tetap stabil di bawah 0.0%, meningkatkan peluang untuk memihak kepada Dolar. Perlu diketahui bahawa kenaikan Hasil menunjukkan kadar faedah yang meningkat untuk membendung inflasi, oleh itu pelabur percaya Rizab Persekutuan boleh menaikkan kadar empat kali pada tahun 2018.


    2. Aras tinggi minyak berbilang tahun dan tekanan inflasi: Dengan harga Minyak Mentah yang mencecah aras tinggi baru, prospek Rizab Persekutuan untuk dasar 2018 mungkin berubah lebih cepat daripada yang dijangkakan, cerita yang lama dilupakan sejak mesyuarat FOMC yang terakhir apabila pembuat dasar memberikan isyarat bahawa bar untuk empat kenaikan ditetapkan tinggi, walaupun harga mungkin diteruskan secara beransur-ansur. Konsensus sememangnya beralih kerana harga minyak yang tinggi menambah tekanan inflasi, yang seterusnya menaikkan minat untuk satu lagi kenaikan.


    3. Kesan dasar ekuiti dan fiskal: Memandangkan penghujung suku tahun baru-baru ini dalam ekuiti dan hubungan antara berita khusus syarikat, peristiwa makroekonomi dan faktor geopolitik, kenaikan ketidaktentuan bergerak seiring walaupun terdapat ketaksekataan yang tinggi. Dengan perubahan dasar fiskal yang menyokong aktiviti ekonomi dan perbelanjaan setakat ini, bacaan pertumbuhan pekerjaan yang baik mungkin dicapai kerana hasil perniagaan positif meningkatkan permintaan pekerja dalam perniagaan.


    4. Jangkaan upah meningkat apabila aktiviti ekonomi memberikan kesan daripada kenaikan yang lain: Walaupun laporan pasaran buruh menunjukkan bacaan pendapatan purata setiap jam 0.3%, seperti yang dijangka oleh ahli ekonomi, perkembangan upah setiap jam pada suku pertama naik 2.7%. Bacaan itu ialah unsur utama yang membayangi laporan bulan Mac yang lemah dan jangkaan meningkat yang Rizab Persekutuan boleh menaikkan kadar tiga kali lagi pada tahun ini, bukan dua. Dengan peningkatan Hasil dan inflasi, seperti yang dinyatakan di atas, upah yang lebih tinggi pastinya menambah konsensus.





    Stavros Tousios,
    FX Market Specialist.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini adalah dibekalkan sebagai komentari pasaran umum dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak akan bertanggungjawab atas sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had terhadap, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang mungkin wujud secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau rujukan terhadap maklumat berkenaan.

     


  •  


    Minyak Mentah melonjak ke aras tinggi $67.60 setong pada minggu lepas dalam keadaan risiko geopolitik yang meningkat, aras tertinggi sejak tahun 2014. Harga Minyak yang melepasi rintangan untuk hari ketiga berturut-turut boleh menandakan harga akan naik ke lingkungan julat baru, menjadikan pelepasan ini agak penting, atau kembali ke bawah julat dagangan sebelumnya.


    CARTA HARIAN MINYAK AS


    Dengan peningkatan permintaan selama lebih daripada setahun sekarang ini dan pertumbuhan AS menyokong pertumbuhan, pasaran nampaknya telah bertindak balas dan juga bergerak, dengan sewajarnya sehingga kini. Komponen bekalan ialah faktor yang paling berkemungkinan menetapkan suasana untuk jangka panjang kerana ia melakukan perkara yang sama untuk jangka pendek apabila ketegangan di Timur Tengah bukanlah perkara baru dan kekacauan yang biasa sememangnya dijangkakan..




    Beberapa hari berikutnya akan mengesahkan sama ada pelepasan ini adalah penting atau jika tindakan harga terbaru terhasil daripada tekanan spekulasi.


    Anda dinasihatkan agar berhati-hati memantau akaun anda untuk mengekalkan aras margin.



    Dagangan produk margin melibatkan tahap risiko yang tinggi





    Stavros Tousios,
    FX Market Specialist.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini adalah dibekalkan sebagai komentari pasaran umum dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak akan bertanggungjawab atas sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had terhadap, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang mungkin wujud secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau rujukan terhadap maklumat berkenaan.

     


  •  


    Sejak beberapa hari yang lalu, kami mendapati Dolar Hong Kong telah menurun kepada aras yang lebih lemah bagi jalur yang dibenarkannya, didagangkan pada 7.85 pada tiga peristiwa berasingan!


    Tekanan terhadap Dolar HK sangat besar pada masa ini apabila mata wang asing ditambat pada Dolar AS pada 7.8, dengan aras atas jalur yang dibenarkan ialah 7.85, aras bawah 7.75, aras yang dicapai pada tahun 2015, ketika pihak berkuasa monetari campur tangan kali terakhir.


    Sisi lemah jalur dagangan ini diperkenalkan pada tahun 2005, ditakrifkan sebagai aku janji kebolehtukaran (CU) sisi lemah, menyebabkan Pihak Berkuasa Monetari Hong Kong membeli 2.42 bilion Dolar Hong Kong daripada pasaran pertukaran semalam pada sesi AS, dan sekali lagi, 816 juta lagi kerana jurang kadar faedah antara Dolar dan Dolar Hong Kong melebar.


    Dalam keadaan peserta pasaran melihat situasi ini dengan penuh minat, aktiviti mungkin akan kekal pada aras yang meningkat apabila kadar antara bank di Hong Kong melonjak 4.1 mata asas untuk hari ini, peningkatan terbesar sejak 29 November.


    Menurut penganalisis, harga boleh kekal di sekitar 7.85 setiap Dolar AS untuk tempoh masa seterusnya tahun 2018, tetapi oleh sebab Pihak Berkuasa Monetari Hong Kong berkewajipan untuk mempertahankan aras tersebut dan bersedia untuk memenuhi sebarang permintaan daripada bank untuk menyokong mata wang itu, sesuatu yang besar mungkin akan berlaku, menyamai Swiss Franc pada tahun 2015.




    Dagangan produk margin melibatkan tahap risiko yang tinggi





    Stavros Tousios,
    Pakar Pasaran FX.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini disediakan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak bertanggungjawab terhadap sebarang kehilangan atau kerosakan, termasuk tetapi tidak terhad kepada, sebarang kehilangan untung yang mungkin berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan terhadap maklumat tersebut.


  •  


    Jumlah Pekerjaan meningkat sebanyak 313K pada bulan Februari manakala Pengangguran bertahan kukuh pada 4.1% untuk bulan kelima berturut-turut. Pakar ekonomi menjangkakan peningkatan kepada 205K, sedikit tinggi berbanding 200K pada bulan Januari, tetapi mengejutkan apabila NFP mengukuhkan momentum positif untuk ekonomi AS, tetapi tidak menarik perhatian pasaran mata wang apabila pertumbuhan upah meningkat dengan kadar perlahan.


    Dengan penambahan pekerjaan pada nilai tertinggi selama 42 bulan dan tiga semakan meningkat yang berturut-turut bagi bacaan pekerjaan, keputusan Rizab Persekutuan untuk menaikkan kadar faedah pada bulan lepas sememangnya agak wajar.


    Peningkatan upah dan inflasi dengan pengangguran yang rendah menyokong pengembangan ekonomi pada bulan Januari dan Februari dan hal ini tidak penting bagi Dolar AS. Malah, kadar forex menurun pada bulan Mac apabila tarif Presiden Trump diambil kira.


    Pekerjaan meningkat dalam pembinaan, perdagangan runcit, perkhidmatan profesional dan perniagaan, pembuatan, aktiviti kewangan dan perlombongan.



    Perubahan dalam Gaji Bukan Perladangan AS dijangka 190K pada bulan Mac, merosot daripada 205K yang dijangka pada bulan Februari. Paling penting, pakar ekonomi menjangkakan Kadar Pengangguran menurun kepada 4.0%, bacaan yang tidak dilihat sejak bulan Disember 2000. Situasi Pekerjaan untuk bulan Mac dijadualkan akan dikeluarkan pada hari Jumaat, 6 April 2018, pada pukul 12:30 petang (GMT).


    Apakah yang perlu diperhatikan pada laporan bulan Mac…


    1. Perbezaan Kadar Faedah AS dan EU: Rizab Persekutuan menaikkan kadar faedah daripada 1.5% kepada 1.75%, kenaikan pertama Powell, seperti yang dijangkakan pasaran sejak Januari lepas. Pasaran menjangkakan dua lagi kenaikan kadar pada tahun 2018, atau tiga, tetapi kekal bersandarkan pada kata-kata Powell kerana sensitiviti untuk Rizab Persekutuan yang lebih ketat memainkan faktor penting bagi aktiviti arah. Kenaikan dan jangkaan selanjutnya untuk kenaikan akan menggerakkan spread yang memihak kepada Dolar.

    2. Indeks Pekerjaan Pembuatan dan Bukan Pembuatan ISM: Indeks Pekerjaan Pembuatan ISM mencatatkan bacaan 57.3%, penurunan 4.02% daripada bacaan bulan Februari 59.7%, manakala Indeks Pekerjaan Bukan Pembuatan ISM menurun 6.6% pada bulan Februari kepada 55% daripada bacaan bulan Januari 61.6%, walaupun terdapat pesanan baru belian panik yang kukuh disebabkan tarif logam Trump. Kedua-dua laporan merangkumi lebih daripada dua pertiga aktiviti ekonomi AS, oleh itu, penting untuk fokus pada PMI Perkhidmatan ISM yang akan diumumkan pada hari Rabu.

    3. Ketidaktentuan dan Pasaran Ekuiti: Indeks Ketidaktentuan (VIX) meningkat 81% pada Suku 1 2018, menunjukkan kebimbangan kembali ke dalam pasaran. Ekuiti menghadapi tekanan dan menunjukkan pembetulan 2 tahun susulan jualan panik dengan laporan bahawa upah AS meningkat lebih daripada jangkaan, menandakan inflasi yang berkembang dan mengisyaratkan kadar faedah meningkat. Malah kenaikan kadar sememangnya berlaku pada FOMC bulan Mac, tetapi kebimbangan tentang inflasi yang meningkat berkurangan dengan bacaan upah yang lebih rendah ditunjukkan dalam NFP bulan Februari.

    4. Tuntutan Pengangguran: Tuntutan Pengangguran menurun ke aras rendah baru selama 45 tahun pada minggu lepas manakala pasaran menjangkakan 15K lebih ramai orang akan menuntut. Purata bergerak 4 minggu 12K lebih rendah daripada purata minggu sebelumnya. Pengumuman tersebut menghasilkan minggu ke-158 berturut-turut tuntutan diumumkan di bawah 300K, menyokong pasaran buruh yang kukuh. Sasaran Rizab Persekutuan untuk Pengangguran menjelang hujung tahun ialah pada 3.8%, oleh itu pelabur akan memerhatikan ketidaktentuan dari minggu ke minggu.

    5. Harga minyak dan bacaan inflasi: Harga Minyak dibetulkan di bawah $60 setong pada bulan lepas manakala CPI Teras merosot pada 0.2% (jangkaan 0.2%, sebelumnya 0.3%) seperti yang dijangkakan. Berita ini yang tidak semestinya menjadi berita buruk, kenaikan hampir $66 mungkin menjadi cabaran bagi Rizab Persekutuan kerana inflasi yang kukuh akan memerlukan dasar yang lebih ketat.


    Stavros Tousios,
    Pakar Pasaran FX.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini disediakan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak bertanggungjawab terhadap sebarang kehilangan atau kerosakan, termasuk tetapi tidak terhad kepada, sebarang kehilangan untung yang mungkin berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan terhadap maklumat tersebut.



  • Pada bulan lepas BLS melaporkan perubahan 200K dalam bilangan orang yang diambil bekerja, meningkat daripada 160K (disemak semula daripada 148K) pada bulan Disember dan mencatatkan bacaan yang lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan pakar ekonomi apabila ekonomi AS semakin pesat.


    Kadar pengangguran kekal stabil pada aras rendah 2000 untuk bulan ketiga berturut-turut manakala pendapatan ikut jam purata meningkat 0.1% berbanding bulan sebelumnya dan 2.9% berbanding tahun lepas, rekod 2009, mengesahkan tekanan inflasi yang semakin meningkat yang mungkin diambil kira dalam jangkaan kenaikan kadar Rizab Persekutuan.


    Dengan kenaikan dalam Hasil, peserta pasaran menyebabkan penurunan dalam pasaran ekuiti susulan peristiwa hari Jumaat namun S&P masih meningkat 3.2% setakat tahun ini (YTD).



    Perubahan dalam Gaji Bukan Perladangan AS pada aras semasa ialah 200K, meningkat daripada 160 pada bulan lepas dan menurun daripada 259 setahun lepas. Walaupun AS mengumumkan bacaan utama yang baik, pedagang akan mengingati bahawa kenaikan itu sebahagiannya disebabkan oleh reaksi pasaran terhadap kenaikan upah apabila pelabur percaya pandangan kenaikan kadar Rizab Persekutuan akan berubah dan kemungkinan akan berlaku satu lagi kenaikan kini semakin meningkat.


    Apakah yang perlu diperhatikan pada laporan bulan Februari…


    1. Perbezaan Kadar Faedah AS dan EU: Rizab Persekutuan mengekalkan kadar faedah pada FOMC 31 Januari dengan sedikit perubahan dalam kenyataan mereka. Data ini masih lagi positif kerana Rizab Persekutuan menggabungkan data berterusan yang kukuh dengan tekanan penurunan yang berterusan pada pengangguran, tetapi perbezaannya masih belum berkesan, namun boleh memberikan sedikit bebanan pada Euro. ECB dijangka akan memberikan kadar mereka pada hari Khamis minggu ini.
    2. Indeks Pekerjaan Pembuatan dan Bukan Pembuatan ISM: Dengan AS semakin hampir kepada guna tenaga penuh, kenaikan bulan Februari sebanyak 5.5% dan 5.3% (Bukan Pembuatan) nampaknya akan terus menambah tekanan pada pasaran buruh kerana pekerjaan berkembang pada kadar yang lebih cepat daripada pengeluaran. Keadaan ini menetapkan ramalan yang positif untuk pengambilan memandangkan kenaikan dalam gaji 2017 dan boleh menghasilkan kenaikan selanjutnya dalam upah dan mendorong permintaan memandangkan perubahan cukai baru-baru ini.

    3. Sentimen Pengguna dan Pasaran Saham: Sentimen Pengguna AS meningkat kepada 99.9, rekod 2004, walaupun jangkaan inflasi kekal sama apabila kenaikan pekerjaan dan pelaksanaan pelan Cukai Trump menyebabkan kenaikan Hasil dan ekuiti kepada pembetulan pertama dalam tempoh dua tahun. Sentimen mungkin menurun pada beberapa bulan akan datang susulan kenaikan dalam kos peminjaman.

    4. Hasil Perbendaharaan AS: Hasil dan Dolar meningkat manakala ekuiti menurun, tetapi sejak beberapa hari yang lepas agenda Trump pada tarif logam telah memberikan kesan negatif pada semua perkara di atas, namun tidak banyak pada Hasil kerana ucapan Powell yang ditandakan sebagai kenaikan. Hasil AS menurun manakala Kadar Perbendaharaan meningkat.

    5. Tuntutan Pengangguran: Tuntutan Pengangguran memberi kita sedikit bayangan tentang situasi pekerjaan secara mingguan. Tuntutan Pengangguran menurun kepada aras rendah 45 tahun pada minggu lepas manakala bacaan untuk minggu sebelum juga disemak semula menurun. Purata bergerak 4 minggu 2,250 lebih rendah daripada purata semakan minggu sebelumnya. Purata minggu sebelumnya disemak semula menurun sebanyak 250 sahaja.

    6. Harga minyak dan bacaan inflasi: Harga minyak ialah input utama bagi ekonomi AS dan mempunyai kesan langsung terhadap inflasi. Harga MINYAK dibetulkan di bawah $60 setong pada bulan lepas manakala CPI Teras kekal tidak berubah pada 0.3% (jangkaan 0.2%, sebelumnya 0.3%) tetapi lebih baik daripada jangkaan. Berita ini yang tidak semestinya menjadi berita buruk, kenaikan mungkin menjadi cabaran bagi Rizab Persekutuan kerana inflasi yang kukuh akan memerlukan dasar yang lebih ketat.


    Jika anda ingin mengetahui lebih lanjut, sertai kami di webinar NFP secara langsung kami:
    https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/6058518365149525507

    Stavros Tousios,
    Pakar Pasaran FX.

    Sebarang pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini disediakan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak bertanggungjawab terhadap sebarang kehilangan atau kerosakan, termasuk tetapi tidak terhad kepada, sebarang kehilangan untung yang mungkin berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan terhadap maklumat tersebut.

     


  •  


    Kenaikan gaji bulan Disember didapati kurang daripada unjuran 190K yang dijangkakan dan juga di bawah jumlah gaji 2016, namun di atas 2 juta dan jangkaan tahunan. Berdasarkan bacaan utama gaji bulan Disember, A.S. mengakhiri tahun 2017 dengan salah satu kenaikan pengambilan pekerja yang paling luar biasa, 7 tahun berturut-turut dengan AS mengambil lebih daripada 2 juta pekerja. Oleh itu, AS menjana hampir 18 juta pekerjaan baru sejak tahun 2010.


    Dengan Kadar Pengangguran kekal stabil pada 4.1% untuk bacaan ketiga berturut-turut, aras rendah 2000, ramai pakar ekonomi menjangkakan penurunan pengambilan pekerja pada tahun 2018 kerana terdapat kemungkinan berlakunya kehabisan pekerja.


    Walaupun pertumbuhan upah meningkat pada bulan Disember, pakar ekonomi menjangkakan pengembangan pada tahun 2017 adalah terhad kerana ini bakal berlaku jauh di bawah aras purata 6.22, pada 3.22.


    Bacaan utama bulan Disember tidak memberangsangkan, pengambilan pekerja terus merosot kerana penurunan dalam perdagangan runcit manakala pertumbuhan sebahagian besarnya dilihat dalam pendidikan dan penjagaan kesihatan, pembuatan dan pembinaan.



    Perubahan dalam Gaji Bukan Perladangan AS aras semasa ialah 148K, menurun daripada 252K bulan lepas dan menurun daripada 155K setahun lepas. Walaupun AS mengumumkan bacaan utama kelas kedua, kadar FX tidak mengambil berat pada bacaan tersebut.


    Sebab utama bacaan utama yang lebih lemah daripada jangkaan tidak diambil kira dengan segera:


    • Kadar Tidak Bekerja kekal stabil untuk bulan ketiga, Jun 2017 disemak semula menurun daripada 4.4% kepada 4.3%
    • Pendapatan setiap jam purata meningkat 2.5%
    • Bacaan utama bulan November disemak semula meningkat 24K
    • Pekerjaan bukan pembuatan ISM meningkat sebanyak 1.81%
    • PKadar penyertaan mengekalkan bacaan 62.7% manakala Baby Boomers bersara
    • ADP sebelum ini melaporkan 70K pekerjaan ditambah pada bulan Disember
    • Laporan tahunan pengurangan pekerjaan mencatatkan bacaan terendah sejak tahun 1990, majikan mengumumkan pengurangan pekerjaan 20.5% lebih rendah

    Apakah yang perlu diperhatikan pada laporan bulan Januari…


    Di samping bacaan kemas kini yang disebutkan sebelum ini yang menyebabkan bacaan gaji lepas tidak diambil berat…


    1. Perbezaan sebenar berbanding Konsensus dan Perbezaan Purata: Pada tahun lepas, anggaran pakar ekonomi tentang bacaan utama sebenar tersasar sebanyak -153K. Pertimbangkan purata bacaan ini ditambah pada bacaan yang diramal untuk jangkaan bulan Januari. Bagi bacaan sebelum berbanding sebenar, bacaan ini hanya berbeza -5.8K.
    2. Perbezaan Kadar Faedah AS dan EU: Rizab Persekutuan menaikkan kadar faedah dalam keputusan bulan Disember, meningkatkan perbezaan berbanding Euro sebanyak 25 mata asas (1.25% kepada 1.50%) dengan mengubah spread memihak kepada Dolar manakala aliran masuk modal semakin melebar. Tetapi perlu diberikan perhatian, Dolar telah didorong oleh sentimen sejak akhir-akhir ini, bukannya disebabkan kadar faedah.

    3. Indeks Pekerjaan Pembuatan ISM: Indeks Pekerjaan yang agak rendah boleh menunjukkan bacaan yang lemah, terutamanya apabila mempertimbangkan bahawa ini ialah bulan keempat berturut-turut bacaan Indeks ini lebih buruk daripada bulan sebelumnya. Korelasi 5 tahun antara Indeks dan bacaan Gaji Bukan Perladangan ialah 0.66 manakala korelasi Indeks Pekerjaan Bukan Pembuatan berbanding NFP bagi tempoh yang sama ialah 0.63. Laporan PMI Pembuatan ISM pada 1 Februari akan memberi pelabur lebih banyak petunjuk.

    4. Sentimen Pengguna dan Pasaran Saham: Walaupun saham meningkat, itu tidak membuktikan bahawa Sentimen Pengguna akan mengikuti. Sejak 10 tahun yang lepas, harga turun dan naik lebih kurang pada masa yang sama. Namun begitu, Sentimen Pengguna UoM ialah penunjuk yang penting untuk diperhatikan kerana ia mengecewakan pelabur pada bulan lepas, seperti yang dilakukan oleh NFP, membuat pengumuman yang pesimis.

    5. Hasil Perbendaharaan AS: Oleh sebab hubungan antara Hasil Perbendaharaan AS dan gaji bukan perladangan ialah negatif, pemecutan dalam pertumbuhan gaji memberikan kesan yang negatif terhadap spread 2-10 tahun. Perlu diberikan perhatian bahawa pintasan bagi Hasil 10 tahun adalah lebih tinggi daripada Hasil 2 tahun, oleh itu pintasan bagi spread 2-10 ialah positif.

    6. Tuntutan Pengangguran: Tuntutan Pengangguran memberi kita sedikit bayangan tentang situasi pekerjaan secara mingguan, bukan bulanan seperti NFP. Tuntutan Pengangguran setakat ini meningkat ~23K dan merosot ~6K dalam tiga laporan bulan Januari (berjumlah +17K). Berbanding gaji, ini bermaksud nilai hampir 7K kenaikan dalam gaji bukan perladangan, walaupun korelasi ini tidak mencukupi satu minggu data.

    7. Harga minyak dan bacaan inflasi: Harga minyak ialah input utama bagi ekonomi AS dan mempunyai kesan langsung terhadap inflasi. MINYAK dalam keadaan bulis, oleh itu ini boleh menjadi isyarat bagi NFP yang tidak baik. Tetapi, perlu diberikan perhatian bahawa Dolar AS juga sangat lemah, ekonomi yang lemah mungkin bermaksud kurang permintaan Minyak Mentah.


    Jika anda ingin mengetahui lebih lanjut, sertai kami di webinar NFP secara langsung kami: register.gotowebinar.com


    Stavros Tousios,
    Pakar Pasaran FX.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini disediakan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak bertanggungjawab terhadap sebarang kehilangan atau kerosakan, termasuk tetapi tidak terhad kepada, sebarang kehilangan untung yang mungkin berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan terhadap maklumat tersebut.


  •  

    Ramalan Mata Wang 2018 (YTD)



    Ramalan Ekonomi & Mata Wang 2017 hingga 2018


    Amerika Syarikat – DOLAR AS


    DOLAR AS mengalami kesulitan untuk menunjukkan prestasi yang memberangsangkan pada sebahagian besar tahun 2017, dalam keadaan risiko politik, geopolitik dan persekitaran yang semakin meningkat, bergerak hampir 6.20% lebih rendah pada tahun tersebut hingga kini (year-to-date, YTD).

    Dagangan menunjukkan penurunan disebabkan oleh dasar Trump yang menggesa pelabur untuk beralih kepada peluang yang lebih baik sehingga ketidakpastian reda. Namun peluang untuk pelabur jangka pendek adalah baik; mereka menukar Hasil Bon 10-15 Tahun AS dan Indeks Dolar AS kepada laluan bertentangan sehingga awal bulan September dan Oktober, terutamanya disebabkan oleh kelewatan dasar fiskal.



    Selepas tempoh sembilan bulan yang tidak begitu baik, jangkaan untuk kadar meningkat dan rangsangan fiskal yang besar telah mengukuhkan ekonomi AS. KDNK sebenar meningkat pada aras 3.3%, aras tinggi 3 tahun, Inflasi Teras kekal sederhana sekitar 1.7% dan Pengangguran kekal pada aras rendah 2001.

    Berdasarkan pilihan risiko yang mencerminkan kitaran kenaikan Rizab Persekutuan dan rangsangan dasar yang besar, di samping pendirian penyesuaian Powell yang seperti Yellen tentang pemulihan secara beransur-ansur, saya percaya tahun 2018 akan menurunkan Indeks Dolar kepada aras 88.00 - 85.00.


    Eropah – EURO


    Walaupun kebanyakan bank menjangkakan EURO akan merangkumi kedua-dua risiko penurunan kadar dan politik, menjangkakan serendah $1.05 berbanding DOLAR, EURO menunjukkan kenaikan yang memberangsangkan sebanyak 12%, terutamanya didorong oleh pengumuman ECB untuk mengurangkan program Quantitative Easing (QE) mereka dan juga disebabkan oleh AS dan GB yang lemah.



    Dengan pendirian dasar kewangan penyesuaian ECB yang berterusan meningkatkan penunjuk sentimen, Pertumbuhan KDNK Sebenar Suku 3 disahkan pada 0.6%. Didorong oleh permintaan dalam negara yang kukuh, sektor swasta yang semakin berkembang dan syarat peminjaman bank yang baik, jangkaan bagi kadar faedah masa depan telah menyokong pemulihan ekonomi di kawasan Euro.

    Berdasarkan pandangan asas saya, keputusan ECB untuk menentukur semula program pembelian aset daripada 60 kepada 30 bilion Euro sebulan dari bulan Januari 2018, dengan tempoh pelaksanaan rangsangan dilanjutkan, besar kemungkinan langkah ini akan menggalakkan inflasi dan merangsang ekonomi. Walaupun pengurangan dilakukan pada tempoh EURO tidak meningkat - menjadikan pengumuman ini agak memihak kepada penurunan kadar, saya percaya bahawa kadar yang perlahan dalam pemulihan dasar akan menyokong inflasi ke arah tahun 2019, tetapi tidak banyak pada tahun 2018.

    Berdasarkan asas di atas dan dengan kadar yang rendah kekal pada tahun 2018, saya meramalkan bahawa EUR/USD akan dilanjutkan kepada $1.278 - $1.311



    Great Britain – PAUN BRITISH


    Walaupun pada suku pertama tahun 2017 Paun menunjukkan kelemahan susulan tempoh kecairan rendah yang ketara dan pendedahan terhadap “flash crashes”, mencetuskan Artikel 50 telah mengalihkan sentimen pelabur. Ini juga disebabkan oleh pertumbuhan global dan ramalan yang optimis di kawasan euro. Sebaliknya, STERLING tetap ketara di bawah aras sebelum Brexit untuk sepanjang tahun 2017 dan aras sebelum "Flash Crash" untuk hampir ½ daripada tahun 2017.

    Walaupun keadaan GBPUSD sebegitu dan masih sebegitu, mangsa kedudukan kemarahan politik gagal untuk melanjutkan penurunan pasangan ini, yang menambah nilai pada nilai jangka sederhana mata wang ini, namun inflasi meningkat kepada kadar tinggi 6 tahun iaitu 3.10%. Ini menyebabkan Paun British jauh daripada sasaran kadar inflasi tahunan sebanyak 2.0% yang ditetapkan oleh kerajaan untuk mengekalkan kestabilan harga.



    Selain itu, pertumbuhan upah yang mendatar serta Jualan Runcit yang sangat perlahan telah mencabar keyakinan pelabur kerana permintaan dan pertumbuhan pengguna mungkin kekal di bawah tekanan.

    Jauh daripada kerentanan kunci kira-kira dan tag harga bil keluar, ketidaktentuan PAUN akan sangat didorong oleh rundingan perdagangan Brexit dan sama ada Brexit "soft" atau "hard" dicapai antara UK dan EU.

    Perlu diingati tentang akibat daripada Brexit, kepentingan yang berbeza dalam parlimen UK, kenaikan kadarh selepas 10 tahun dan kemungkinan pilihan raya awal, pada pandangan saya akan menyebabkan bearis. Dengan harapan merangka kesepakatan dan kitaran kenaikan ringan yang dijangka, saya menjangkakan GBP/USD kekal di atas 1.27 untuk sepanjang tahun 2018 dan mungkin menuju ke arah $ 1.39 - $ 1.41. Selain itu, saya menjangkakan asas makro yang lebih lemah.


    Jepun – YEN


    Dengan Abe memenangi pilihan raya umum "kilat" Jepun pada tahun 2017, tidak ada ruang untuk mengubah dasar monetari BoJ, oleh itu, tekanan inflasi berkemungkinan kekal di bawah sasaran 2.0% YoY, oleh itu, pasaran mungkin akan didorong, seperti mereka lakukan pada tahun 2017, semata-mata pada faktor luaran, iaitu sentimen risiko.

    Mengakui peningkatan ketara di tengah-tengah kebimbangan geopolitik, kesannya terhadap Spread Hasil jangka pendek dan jangka panjang, dan pertumbuhan global yang kukuh, saya percaya bahawa kenaikan spekulasi akan menyebabkan USD/JPY mendatar di antara 108 dan 118 dengan harga yang berakhir pada tahun 2018 lebih dekat dengan aras akhir yang lebih tinggi pada julat tersebut.


    Mata Wang Komoditi




    Kanada – DOLAR KANADA


    Berikutan kemakmuran pada tahun 2017, BoC mungkin akan mengekalkan peralihan kadar kenaikan pada 2018 kerana sokongan kriteria berasaskan fundamental.

    Walaupun kenaikan kadar pertukaran dan upah mendorong sentimen pelabur pada tahun 2017, tahun depan, risiko penurunan akibat rundingan NAFTA dan kesan dasar fiskal, sama ada oleh Amerika Syarikat atau Kanada, mungkin berlaku.

    Tambahan lagi, memandangkan kesan peningkatan pengeluaran Syal AS, CAD boleh menjadi lebih teruk disokong oleh Minyak. Sebaliknya, langkah OPEC melanjutkan pemotongan hingga akhir tahun 2018, lanjutan yang telah memberikan manfaat kepada Dolar Kanada pada tahun 2017 (lihat rajah di atas), boleh menawarkan sokongan pada tahun depan.

    Berdasarkan semua perkara di atas, saya percaya Loonie akan meneruskan kenaikan bulis pada tahun 2018 berbanding Dolar AS, walaupun, dalam skala yang lebih lemah daripada tahun 2017. Saya menjangkakan USDCAD tidak akan naik melebihi 1.3500 dan ia akan jatuh ke arah aras 1.185 - 1.192 menjelang akhir tahun.


    Australia – DOLAR AUSTRALIA


    Bagi sebahagian besar tahun 2017 Australia meningkat dengan perlahan pada dasar monetari penyesuaian RBA dengan inflasi utama berkurangan kepada 1.80% YoY. Saya menjangkakan RBA mengekalkan laluan yang sama untuk pemulihan dasar sekurang-kurangnya untuk separuh pertama 2018 sementara saya juga menjangkakan beberapa tekanan inflasi untuk tempoh yang sama berikutan pertumbuhan gaji yang kukuh.

    Oleh, AUD/USD mungkin mengalami sedikit tekanan penurunan pada suku tahun pertama dan mungkin suku kedua tahun 2018 tetapi tiada apa yang boleh menurunkan harga di bawah 0.7360.

    Walaupun harga bijih besi di China mahal dan ekonomi China menambah sedikit kecenderungan penurunan, kerentanan dijangka berkurangan pada akhir tahun walaupun kitaran kenaikan RBA mungkin bermula pada Akhir Suku 2 - Permulaan Suku 3 tahun 2018. Pandangan saya berdasarkan perkara ini ialah kenaikan jangka panjang dengan hentian pertama berhampiran 0.8400 adalah agak munasabah.


    New Zealand – DOLAR NEW ZEALAND


    Antara mata wang komoditi, Kiwi juga menunjukkan prestasi yang baik untuk sebahagian besar tahun 2017, mengambil kesempatan daripada harga Minyak, bagaimanapun, dengan Gabenor RBNZ Wheeler meletakkan jawatan dan peningkatan parti National pada Suku 3, NZD/USD lemah menghampiri aras rendah pada Januari 2017. Selain itu, kesan Minyak terhadap Kiwi tidak sehebat terhadap Aussie atau Loonie.

    Pada masa yang sama, patut disebut bahawa New Zealand menyaksikan peningkatan jumlah bangunan yang menambah kenaikan bekalan buruh dan menaikkan upah yang rendah, dan juga NZ adalah antara negara dengan output tertinggi di antara negara-negara G10.

    Mengambil kira Hasil yang berkaitan dagangan dan jangkaan inflasi terpilih, saya percaya harga akan bergerak lebih tinggi ke arah 0.7560 dan lebih tinggi. Ini dengan andaian RBNZ menaikkan kadar faedah pada Suku 1 - Suku 2 tahun 2018.


    Komoditi


    US OIL – WTI


    Separuh pertama 2017 mendapati harga WTI jatuh di bawah $40 setong disebabkan bekalan minyak berlebihan dan peningkatan pengeluaran Syal AS.

    Pada separuh kedua tahun tersebut, permintaan untuk Minyak meningkat disebabkan oleh pecutan penurunan inventori secara berturut-turut, meningkatkan harga pada aras tinggi 30 bulan. Malah, bekalan yang semakin ketat adalah disebabkan oleh keputusan OPEC baru-baru ini untuk melanjutkan potongan output.



    Dengan kemungkinan akan berlaku sekatan bekalan sepanjang tahun 2018, saya menjangkakan pertumbuhan permintaan yang kukuh kerana lanjutan baru-baru ini sehingga Mei 2018 telah diberikan respons oleh pedagang. Saya melihat turun naik berkurangan, namun saya menjangkakan perubahan harga menjadi mangsa persaingan antara bekalan berbanding permintaan sementara pasaran mengalami perubahan fundamental.

    Oleh itu, saya meramalkan harga minyak mencecah paras tertinggi $68 setong, sementara ramalan saya untuk harga yang lebih rendah ialah $51 - $52 setong. Saya menjangkakan WTI untuk menutup tahun 2018 di atas $57 dan turun naik terikat pada purata $62.


    EMAS


    Emas berterusan meningkat pada tahun 2017 berikutan kenaikan harga sejak 1 Januari manakala Dolar menyusut disebabkan kemerosotan yang ketara dalam keadaan politik dan ekonomi di Amerika Syarikat. Emas meningkat hampir $85/auns pada Suku 1 dan sebanyak 10% sehingga akhir Suku 2.

    Jangkaan bahawa Rizab Persekutuan akan menaikkan kadar secara beransur-ansur, tidak agresif, bersama-sama dengan risiko geopolitik yang semakin meningkat di Timur Tengah dan Korea Utara, serta ketidakpastian berkaitan dasar fiskal AS telah meningkatkan Emas lebih tinggi pada akhir Suku 3. Sejak suku akhir sentimen telah beralih apabila pasaran Saham menjadi sangat bulis.

    Mengikut carta Emas dan memandangkan kenaikan baru-baru ini dan Hasil Bon jangka panjang dan jangka pendek AS yang lebih rendah pada Suku 4 2017, saya menjangkakan harga Emas akan mengalami kenaikan yang sederhana pada pertengahan tahun ke arah $1400 - $1450 dan pembalikan ke arah rendah $1245/auns menjelang akhir tahun 2018.



     


    Stavros Tousios,
    Pakar Pasaran FX.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini disediakan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak bertanggungjawab terhadap sebarang kehilangan atau kerosakan, termasuk tetapi tidak terhad kepada, sebarang kehilangan untung yang mungkin berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan terhadap maklumat tersebut.

     


  •  

    Bank Pusat akan Menetapkan Nada untuk Tahun 2018


    Tanpa banyak sokongan daripada kalendar ekonomi, pada hari ini pasaran menumpukan perhatian pada beberapa mesyuarat Bank Pusat selepas minggu ini, mesyuarat mungkin akan menetapkan keadaan bagi tahun 2018. Mana-mana pelarasan dasar dan keputusan kadar faedah terakhir bagi tahun 2017 bermula pada hari Rabu pukul 7.00 petang GMT, bermula dengan FOMC yang sangat ditunggu-tunggu secara meluas dan diikuti dengan keputusan ECB dan BoE pada hari Khamis.


     

    Rizab Persekutuan akan Menaikkan Kadar, Rabu 13 Disember


    Pada hari Rabu, pasaran menjangkakan pengumuman terakhir daripada Yellen, Pengerusi Rizab Persekutuan berkenaan kadar Dana Rizab Persekutuan kerana beliau akan digantikan oleh Jerome Powell pada bulan Februari. Pasaran juga menjangkakan, dengan konsensus 92%, bahawa kadar akan meningkat sebanyak 25 mata asas, kepada 1.50%. Walau bagaimanapun, dengan NFP terkini melebihi bacaan pekerjaan ramalan, dengan pendapatan ikut jam purata tidak, dan inflasi teras semakin perlahan pada 2.0% YoY, ekonomi AS nampaknya sudah bersedia untuk kenaikan kadar sekali lagi. Graf di bawah menunjukkan bahawa Pendapatan Ikut Jam Purata Sebenar jatuh kurang daripada Inflasi, menunjukkan perbelanjaan pengguna mungkin meningkat, oleh itu, keputusan Kadar Persekutuan untuk kenaikan bagi mengawal inflasi mungkin diambil pada masa yang sesuai.



    Sejak Pembuat Dasar meningkatkan ramalan Pertumbuhan KDNK 2017 pada Ringkasan Unjuran Ekonomi pada bulan November, tetapi juga pada bulan September, kebanyakan penganalisis akan bersetuju bahawa Rizab Persekutuan terlalu optimis tentang ekonomi AS, meningkatkan risiko untuk songsangan Hasil 2018.


     

    BoE Mengekalkan Kadar Stabil, Khamis 14 Disember


    Seperti yang dijangkakan dalam laporan khas keputusan kadar BoE sebelum ini, ahli MPC mengekalkan kadar pada 0.5%, peningkatan sebanyak 25 mata asas. Kini sudah dijangkakan secara meluas bahawa BoE tidak akan menaikkan kadar dalam jangka masa terdekat dan pasaran menjangkakan sekurang-kurangnya dua kenaikan lagi akan berlaku secara beransur-ansur dalam tempoh 3 tahun yang akan datang.

    Dengan inflasi jauh melebihi aras sasaran 2.0% (pada masa ini 3.0%) dan lebih tinggi daripada purata jangka panjang 1.80%, kadar mungkin sesuai pada ini untuk melengkung inflasi, tetapi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kurang memberangsangkan mungkin menangguhkan mana-mana kenaikan pada masa ini. Carta di bawah memberikan pandangan tentang hubungan antara perubahan yang meningkat dalam inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, yang nampaknya bergerak pada kadar yang sangat perlahan.



    Perlu diingati bahawa prestasi ekonomi UK sebahagian besarnya bergantung pada mana-mana perkembangan rundingan Brexit antara Britain dan Majlis Eropah. Walaupun perjanjian telah dilancarkan pada hari Jumaat lepas (belum diundi), fasa dua perundingan mungkin menyebabkan satu lagi halangan.

     


    ECB Mengekalkan Kadar Hampir Sifar, Khamis 14 Disember


    EURO menurun 0.60% sejak minggu lepas namun bagi bulanan ia didagangkan 1.14% lebih tinggi berbanding DOLAR. ECB tidak tergesa-gesa untuk menaikkan kadar pada masa ini, mengekalkan pendirian apabila inflasi kekal sekitar 1.0%. ECB bergerak sedikit ke arah penormalan walaupun mengekalkan sebahagian besar penyesuaiannya apabila mereka menurunkan pembelian aset mereka kepada 60 bilion sebulan dan bersetuju untuk mengurangkan kepada separuh bermula tahun 2018.



    Perbezaan dasar kewangan antara Eropah dan AS semakin melebar dan mungkin meningkat lebih tinggi susulan kenaikan Rizab Persekutuan pada bulan Disember kerana keputusan FOMC untuk menarik balik beberapa penyesuaian kewangan dua kali dan mungkin x3 pada tahun 2017.


    Dengan harapan bahawa aktiviti ekonomi kekal meningkat dan inflasi utama condong ke arah peningkatan, ECB nampaknya pada laluan yang betul untuk melepaskan rangsangan kewangan lebih cepat daripada jangkaan dan menunjukkan kenaikan 2 mata asas pada tahun 2018. Mesyuarat dasar pada masa ini mungkin akan mendedahkan ramalan ekonomi Eropah sehingga tahun 2020 dan memberikan isyarat tentang perbezaan dasar kewangan akan datang.

     


    Stavros Tousios,
    FX Market Specialist.


    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini adalah dibekalkan sebagai komentari pasaran umum dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak akan bertanggungjawab atas sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had terhadap, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang mungkin wujud secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau rujukan terhadap maklumat berkenaan.

     


  •  

    Keputusan Kadar Tunai RBA, Selasa 7 November


    ‘Kadar tunai’ RBA utama tidak berubah pada pernyataan dasar kewangan 4 Oktober, keputusan ke-14 berturut-turut tentang kadar tunai dengan RBA membuat keputusan untuk mengekalkan kadar pada 1.50%. Keadaan ekonomi yang mempengaruhi keputusan Lembaga tersebut diumumkan sehari selepas data menunjukkan bahawa harga rumah di Sydney menurun selepas tempoh 17 bulan, dengan harga rumah median menurun hampir 4.0% di kawasan tersebut manakala di bandar-bandar utama yang lain harga meningkat, walaupun sedikit.


    Memandangkan syarat kredit yang semakin ketat dan kadar kemajuan perlahan dalam pinjaman, hutang perumahan kepada KDNK kini meningkat lebih cepat daripada pertumbuhan dalam pendapatan negara kasar, seperti yang ditunjukkan dalam carta berikut.


    Tanpa kenaikan kadar tunai rasmi sejak November 2010 dan pertumbuhan kredit pelaburan dan peningkatan dalam pasaran perumahan kedua-duanya bertambah baik dengan ketara disebabkan oleh pemotongan kadar tunai pada masa lalu, pakar berkemungkinan betul tentang ramalan mereka bagi tiada perubahan pada bulan November. Namun pakar ekonomi meramalkan (anggaran 73%) kenaikan kadar dalam tempoh 6 bulan yang akan datang terutamanya disebabkan oleh pertumbuhan dalam pasaran kerja dan juga dalam keadaan perniagaan yang hasilnya mungkin menyokong upah yang lebih tinggi.


    Pertumbuhan upah kekal pada aras rendah di samping inflasi, walaupun Dolar Australia meningkat dalam keadaan Dolar AS yang semakin lemah. Kadar pertukaran yang lebih tinggi mungkin menambah tekanan dalam ekonomi kerana harga meningkat dan dengan itu eksport mungkin menurun, tetapi masih kekal pada aras tinggi tanpa memberikan kesan secara langsung terhadap eksport ke negara-negara OECD (selain penurunan yang ketara pada Januari 2017).


     


    RBA mengekalkan pendirian yang positif tentang pertumbuhan dan bertegas bahawa ekonomi akan bertambah baik secara beransur-ansur pada tahun 2018, dengan kenaikan kadar faedah kemungkinan besar akan berlaku.

     


    Stavros Tousios,
    FX Market Specialist.


    This special report is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.

     


  •  

    BoE Interest Rate Decision, Thursday November 2


    “As the latest GDP grew higher than the 0.3% that economists had anticipated (ac. 0.4%) and Unemployment Rate hit a 43-Year low back in July, BoE may be raising the interest rates in November; the first hike after a long period of 10 years. Despite that, scarce capacity in employment remains a concern. Policy makers must cautiously think as the UK’s economic performance largely depends on whether a transition deal with Europe is reaching or not.



    With inflation hitting 3.0% YTD (est. 3.0%, target 2.0%), the highest level since April 2012, and the increased uncertainty over Brexit, the pressure on MPCs intensifies, especially when considering the 0.4% fall on real wages compared to last year.




    The probability of a hike rate soared to 80% over the past few days in anticipation of curbing inflation and towards a path of gradual monetary normalisation, however, the UK’s economy has not been on its strongest footing and concerns over a weaker Pound weigh in. On the contrary, at the latest MPC meeting the MPC votes increased to 2-0-7 (exp 2-0-7, prev 2-0-6), with more members voting to hold rates unchanged. This estimate has now changed to 9-0-0, signalling that bond buying is likely to provide more yields to investors, albeit at the cost of tightening borrowing.


    The risk to consumers still remains real and is one of BoE’s top concerns.

     


    FED Policy Rate, Wednesday November 1st


    While US GDP grew by 3.0% in Q3 following a 3.1% gain in Q2 Consumer Spending rose 2.4% following a figure of 3.3%, albeit, both grew higher than economists’ estimations. Analysts’ estimations for a GDP figure of 2.6% were influenced in anticipation of a decline due to damages caused by hurricanes. Although nagging worries surrounding low inflation pressures keep inflation away from the 3.0% target demand from consumers and businesses, along with the latest Payroll report, may be paving the pathway for a December hike.


    * The Bureau highlighted that the collection data was incomplete and further revisions may be seen in November 29th, when the 2nd estimate will be released.



    With the Unemployment Rate falling to 4.2% (est. 4.3%) and the Bureau admitting that the Unemployment Rate was not affected by hurricanes, job growth seems to be followed by the growth in labour force. This in return supports some further strengthening in the US economic growth and especially in inflation since the pace in wage gains also shore up while consistent upward revisions took place.



    On October 17, Dollar was boosted by US Yields as the 10-Year Bond climbed above the 2.39% of July 7 on greater prospects of monetary policy. Dollar soared higher days later on a Senate Budget approval, marking the most meaningful day for Trump and his tax reform plan, while Dollar was rising against Yen some 1.7%. The latest political developments found the budget bill passed and ECB’s Draghi announcement of the QE changes just minutes before a report said Yellen was out of the Fed Chair race. The 10-Year Yield accelerated to its highest levels since March 20, 2017 at 2.44% where it lies today (26/10/2017 | 16:15 EDT), along with a fresh 14-Week high in USD/JPY.”




    Stavros Tousios, FX Market Specialist. This special report is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.

     



  • Berdasarkan angka tajuk utama gaji bagi bulan September, reaksi yang berbeza telah ditunjukkan berbanding Dolar AS yang semakin lemah. Sungguhpun pakar ekonomi telah menjangkakan pertumbuhan pekerjaan sebanyak 80K, Dolar telah meningkat melebihi tahap rintangan utama 113.00 berbanding Yen, walaupun ekonomi AS telah mengalami kerugian kira-kira ~40K pekerjaan.


    Ekonomi AS telah kerugian sebanyak 95K (diperbaiki dengan -41K) pekerjaan pada bulan September 2010, yang telah mencatatkan rekod 7 tahun. Dengan mengakui bahawa pemain pasaran membimbangi angka utama yang telah berkurang dengan mendadak dalam Kadar Pengangguran pada rekod rendah selama 16 tahun, dan kenaikan dalam NFP bulan Ogos manakala Pendapatan Jam Purata meningkat ke tahap yang tertinggi sejak bulan Februari 2016.


    Dengan pertumbuhan gaji yang meningkat, belanjawan bagi tahun kewangan 2018 telah diluluskan dan Hasil AS telah meningkat melebihi 2.33%, pakar ekonomi yakin bahawa NFP bulan Oktober dapat membawa kepada lonjakan yang diperlukan terhadap Dolar AS.


    Laporan bulan September telah menunjukkan peningkatan utama dalam penjagaan kesihatan, pengangkutan dan pergudangan, serta perkhidmatan profesional dan perniagaan manakala pekerjaan dalam bidang makanan dan perkhidmatan telah susut sehingga (-105K) berikutan bencana taufan yang berlaku pada baru-baru ini apabila kebanyakan pekerja tidak menerima gaji:



    Walaupun bencana taufan tersebut telah meninggalkan impak kecil terhadap pengumpulan data dalam kebanyakan bidang pada bulan September, berbanding ralat pemprosesan dalam anggaran bulan Ogos bagi pekerja wanita dan pengeluaran serta pekerja tidak berpenyelia dalam lima industri yang lebih kecil telah dikenal pasti.


    Perubahan dalam Gaji Bukan Ladang AS adalah pada tahap semasa sebanyak -33K, turun daripada angka 169K bulan lalu, dan dari ada 249K satu tahun yang lalu. Ini merupakan perubahan daripada -119.5% bulan lalu dan -113.3% daripada satu tahun yang lalu. Alasan utama bagi kenyataan yang lebih lemah berbanding jangkaan mengalami penurunan adalah:


    1. Upah meningkat daripada 0.2% kepada 0.5% manakala ahli ekonomi mengharapkan pertumbuhan sebanyak 0.3%.
    2. Kadar Pengangguran susut kepada nilai rendah selama 16 tahun kepada 4.2%
    3. Kadar Penyertaan turut meningkat kepada 63.1%
    4. Gaji bulan Ogos telah meningkat daripada 156K kepada 169K
    5. Potongan Pekerjaan Pencabar telah susut sebanyak 4.4%


    Perincian terhadap lima perkara utama...


    1. Pertumbuhan upah meningkat daripada 0.2% kepada 0.5%: Walaupun bancian mendapati terhadap peningkatan bagi pendapatan jam purata daripada 0.3% kepada 0.5%, yang lebih tinggi berbanding jangkaan dan sasaran inflasi Fed sebanyak 2.0%. Pendapatan Jam Purata AS pada paras semasa ialah 26.55. Pendapatan mingguan pertengahan bagi pekerja penuh masa adalah $859 dalam suku ketiga tahun 2017. Ini adalah 3.9% lebih tinggi berbanding tahun lalu.

    2. Kadar Pengangguran susut kepada nilai rendah selama 16 tahun: Kadar Pengangguran menurun kepada 4.2% mencecah paras rendah selama 16 tahun, Kadar Inflasi meningkat sebanyak 2.2% tahun demi tahun pada bulan September, walaupun terlepas daripada angka bancian sebanyak 2.3%. Kadar Inflasi AS ialah pada 2.23% berbanding 1.94% bulan lalu. Dalam pada itu, Kadar Pengangguran AS ialah pada 4.20% berbanding 4.40% bulan lalu. Menurut BLS, tiada kesan yang dapat dilihat terhadap kadar pengangguran kebangsaan berikutan Taufan Irma dan Harvey yang berlaku.

    3. Kadar Penyertaan meningkat kepada 63.1%: Kadar Penyertaan Tenaga Buruh AS telah meningkat kepada 63.10% berbanding 62.90% bulan lalu. Yang penting, ia menyokong kejatuhan Kadar Pengangguran dan sekaligus peningkatan yang berlaku terhadap kadar pada baru-baru ini telah membuktikan kekuatan pasaran pekerjaan.

    4. NFP Ogos telah diperbaiki: Walaupun NFP negatif telah diterbitkan pada bulan September, Dolar telah mengalami pertumbuhan yang lebih kukuh bagi data Ogos yang mencatatkan peningkatan daripada 156K kepada 169K serta pertumbuhan terhadap pendapatan jam purata. Deflasi telah menjadi salah satu daripada kebimbangan terbesar terhadap upah baru-baru ini yang memberikan alasan kepada pelabur untuk membeli Dolar.
       
    5. Potongan Pekerjaan Pencabar telah susut sebanyak 4.4%: Laporan Pencabar kini berada pada tahap semasa 32.346, susut daripada 33.825 bulan lalu. Suku kali ini telah menandakan jumlah suku ketiga paling rendah sejak suku ketiga tahun 1996.


    Penanda Utama untuk Diperhatikan dalam Laporan Gaji Akan Datang


    Major

    • Sebenar, Percanggahan bancian dan Percanggahan Purata
    • Tuntutan Pengangguran (purata 4 minggu) dan jika mereka menyokong data Pengangguran
    • Laporan Pembuatan ISM
    • Laporan Potongan Pekerjaan

    Minor

    • KDNK dan Sentimen Pengguna UoM (semakan)
    • Indeks Harga PCE Teras
    • Perbelanjaan Peribadi
    • Keyakinan Pengguna CB
    • Laporan Pekerjaan ADP


    Rujukan:


    1. https://www.bls.gov/
    2. https://www.challengergray.com/tags/job-cut-report

     

     


  •  

    Kenyataan Kadar BoC, Rabu, 25 Oktober


    Bank of Canada telah menaikkan kadar faedahnya sebanyak 25 bp pada 6 September yang lalu, selepas kenaikan sebanyak 25 bp pada 12 Julai. Peningkatan tersebut telah membawa Dolar Kanada 82 sen lebih tinggi berbanding Dolar AS manakala pakar ekonomi menjangkakan peningkatan lain dalam acara ekonomi pada 25 Oktober yang akan datang berbanding seawal bulan Julai yang lalu. BoC telah menaikkan kadar faedahnya daripada 0.5% kepada 0.75% pada bulan Julai buat kali pertama dalam 7 tahun, dan mencatatkan rekod dengan meningkatkan kadar tersebut kepada 1.0% semula pada bulan September.



    Pertumbuhan ekonomi pesat sebanyak 4.5% tahun demi tahun dalam Suku 2 dan prestasi ekonomi terbaik dalam kalangan negara G7 telah disokong oleh pertumbuhan dalam sektor Eksport dan Tenaga. Walaupun terdapat pakar analisis yang melihat kenaikan kadar kedua ini sebagai agresif, data berkenaan didapati begitu menggalakkan dan pendirian BoC terhadap polisi berkenaan nampaknya begitu memberangsangkan, walaupun kadar inflasi berlegar-legar di bawah sasaran 2.0%, namun keadaan sebenarnya adalah bertambah baik dalam skala kecil.


    Kadar inflasi Kanada ialah pada 1.43% berbanding 1.13% tahun lalu. Ini merupakan kadar yang lebih rendah berbanding kadar purata jangka panjang 3.89%, walaupun hakikatnya adalah 1.50% lebih rendah daripada jangkaan. Inflasi yang berlaku telah meningkatkan Perubahan dalam KDNK Sebenar, iaitu sebanyak 20 bp, berbanding 0.90% pada suku yang lalu dan -0.30% tahun lalu, yang lebih rendah berbanding purata jangka panjang 0.59%.



    Dengan pasaran Perumahan yang baru sahaja keluar daripada belenggu hutang, semakan terhadap polisi cukai, polisi perumahan semakin bertambah dan CPI meningkat 0.2% lebih tinggi pada bulan Ogos. Keputusan BoC pada 25 hari bulan mungkin bergantung pada trend pertumbuhan dan prestasi Dolar Kanada secara keseluruhan. Walau bagaimanapun, syarat pasaran buruh sebagai potensi ekonomi serta sama ada ia mampu bertahan menghadapi kenaikan kadar untuk tahun berikutnya, memberi isyarat bahawa tahap perangsang sedia ada mungkin tidak bersesuaian buat masa ini.


    Kadar Bida Minimum ECB, Khamis 26 Oktober


    Euro telah meningkatkan c. sebanyak 12.25% sejak bulan Januari terhadap Dolar AS, sebahagiannya dalam kebangkitan kewangan AS dan ketidakstabilan politik yang dihadapi namun kebanyakannya adalah disebabkan oleh suku pertumbuhan Zon Eropah dan pascakrisis KDNK kepada 2.3% tahun demi tahun dalam Suku 2 2017. KDNK Sebenar meningkat sebanyak .06% dalam suku yang sama manakala Kadar Pertumbuhan Tahunan KDNK EU telah meningkat secara serentak untuk 14 bulan yang lalu. ECB mengatakan bahawa inflasi dijangkakan untuk mengalami penurunan dalam jangka pendek sebagai kesan daripada peningkatan kadar tukaran Euro sebelum naik semula kepada 1.5%, walau bagaimanapun, keadaan ini juga turut dipengaruhi oleh keputusan ECB untuk menurunkan pembelian aset bulanannya. Pendirian ECB dan pemulihan Euro telah mengurangkan kecenderungan untuk berlakunya peningkatan kadar pada tahun ini.



    Sepanjang tempoh bulan Januari 2015 dan hingga kini, ECB telah mengekalkan kadar faedah sifar, namun keadaan ini tidak mencerminkan bahawa ECB cukup bersedia untuk mengikuti kenaikan kadar tersebut berikutan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berterusan, ia menggambarkan bahawa kelembapan ekonomi menerusi kadar faedah yang sangat rendah dan pengurangan pembelian bon bulanan mungkin bakal dilaksanakan tidak lama lagi. Selain itu, Reuters turut menerbitkan undian yang menyokong pendapat bahawa ECB mungkin mengumumkan pengurangan dalam pembelian bon bulanannya dalam sidang media pada bulan Oktober.


    Dalam Kenyataan Pengenalannya dalam Sidang Media, Presiden ECB Mario Draghi menyebut bahawa pembelian aset bersih "adalah diharapkan untuk berlangsung sehingga hujung bulan Disember 2017, atau selanjutnya, jika perlu" dan sehingga sasaran inflasi dicapai. Presiden Draghi turut menambah bahawa "kadar inflasi akan perlahan-lahan beralih ke paras yang sama dengan sasaran inflasi ECB", yang akan membawa berita gembira kepada para pelabur. Namun begitu, pendirian polisi kewangan berikut mungkin menjadi petunjuk kepada kenaikan yang telah nama dinanti-nantikan itu.


    Melihat kepada inflasi harga Pengguna (HICP), ini berada pada paras 1.50% bagi bulan Ogos, sama seperti bulan lalu, dan 0.40% tahun lalu. Nilai ini adalah lebih rendah berbanding purata jangka panjang sebanyak 1.68%. Bagi memastikan ECB dapat mengekalkan kestabilannya, kadar inflasi HICP mestilah kekal berhampiran 2.0% lebih daripada jangka sederhana. Unjuran makro ekonomi ECB untuk Zon Eropah meramalkan penurunan sebanyak 1.20%, seperti yang telah dinyatakan oleh Draghi, menjelang hujung tahun/awal tahun 2018 bagi mencerminkan harga dagangan masa hadapan sedia ada bagi minyak dan kesannya terhadap nilai harga tenaga dan komoditi.


     


    Kadar Polisi BoJ, Selasa 31 Oktober


    Dalam pengumuman terbaru mengenai polisi pada 20 Julai, BoJ mencatatkan kadar yang malar dan ia kelihatan bagaikan kemenangan Abe dalam pilihan raya kebangsaan baru-baru ini telah membuka ruang kepada polisi kewangan telah lama longgar tersebut. Sementara ekonomi Jepun berkembang 0.5% menjelang suku demi suku, kadar inflasi kekal rendah berbanding sasaran luar biasa 2.0% dan masih jauh daripada jangkaan 1.0%.


    Pada kadar ini, ia sudah menjadi kali keenam untuk BoJ menolak unjuran jangkaan mereka dalam mencapai sasaran inflasi. Pertumbuhan KDNK Jepun pada bulan Jun merupakan catatan paling kukuh sejak Suku 1 2015 berikutan keputusan BoJ untuk memperkenalkan rangka kerja polisi pada bulan Februari 2016. Satu rangka kerja yang mengenakan kadar faedah jangka pendek negatif pada -0.1% dan Hasil Bon Tahunan menghampiri 0.0%. Sejak daripada itu, kadar faedah 10 tahun JGB jatuh daripada 0.45% kepada 0.07% hari ini, manakala kadar inflasi menjunam daripada 2.60% pada bulan Februari 2015 kepada 0.5% pada bulan Ogos 2017, setelah berada pada kedudukan tinggi selama 29 bulan.



    Dengan kemenangan Abe dalam pilihan raya pada kali ini, BoJ berkemungkinan besar akan mengekalkan polisi longgar mereka dan terus menawarkan hasil negatif. Sebagai hasilnya, modal Jepun akan terus mencari pulangan yang lebih tinggi dari lokasi lain selain Jepun dan dengan cara itu Pelaburan Jepun di negara-negara asing akan berupaya untuk membantu mengekalkan kadar faedah global, melalui peranan Jepun untuk terus kekal sebagai sumber eksport modal.


    Pada bulan September, Eksport Jepun telah meningkat sebanyak 14.1% walaupun nilai tersebut adalah lebih rendah daripada 14.9% yang dijangkakan. Rekod ini mencatatkan peningkatan 10 kali berturut-turut yang sebahagian besarnya dijana melalui pengeksportan kereta. Besar kemungkinan bahawa penerimaan hasil eksport akan membolehkan kepimpinan Abe untuk menolak reformasi cukai pengguna dan menggalakkan perbelanjaan kerajaan. Oleh yang demikian, ia menjadi satu kebanggaan untuk melihat peningkatan dalam perbelanjaan pengguna dan pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi perkara ini sebaliknya dapat memberi kesan kepada Yen selagi hasil negatif dan bantuan kewangan agresif masih dilaksanakan.


    Dengan keyakinan pengguna di bawah paras purata jangka panjang sebanyak 42.14 sejak Ogos 2015 dan nisbah hutang kerajaan yang sentiasa tinggi kepada KDNK sebanyak 250.40, dengan ramalan untuk tahun 2021 sebanyak 251.70%, dan Yen berkemungkinan besar untuk kekal di bawah tekanan jangka sederhana pendek. Keadaan ini mencadangkan bahawa tiada ketegangan geopolitik yang berlaku.


     


  •  

    Perdana Menteri Jepun, Shinzo Abe Diramal Akan Mendapat Kemenangan Besar


    Perdana Menteri Shinzo Abe telah mengumumkan pilihan raya tergempar pada 25 September yang lalu, dengan mengambil kesempatan terhadap pihak pembangkang yang lemah dan tidak terurus buat masa ini, yang menyaksikan sokongan meningkat terhadap beliau, hampir 44% menyokong pendirian tegas beliau dalam menentang Korea Utara.
    Walaupun pihak pembangkang - Parti Demokratik (DP) kelompok tengah - yang telah menggantikan pemimpin mereka, Murata dengan Maehara, menyaksikan kadar sokongan yang tidak meningkat, dan sebagai hasilnya parti tersebut telah dibubarkan yang membawa ancaman yang lebih besar buat Abe; Parti Harapan Yuriko Koike. Tuah buat Abe, kemasukan baru parti lawan dalam 'pertandingan' tersebut tidak bertahan lama apabila Koike memutuskan untuk tidak bertanding bagi kerusi parlimen, tidak mengabaikan kedudukan beliau sebagai Gabenor, yang membolehkan Parti Demokratik Liberal (LDP) Abe dan rakan kongsinya Komeito untuk mengukuhkan kerajaan campuran yang diramal untuk memenangi pilihan raya dengan lebih 300 kerusi.

    LDP sahaja berkemungkinan besar untuk memenangi 280 kerusi, manakala Koike pula dijangka untuk bergantung pada 57 kerusi, lebih daripada 40 kerusi Parti Demokratik Konstitusional (CDP) serta 21 kerusi yang dijangka untuk dimenangi oleh Parti Komunis Jepun.

     

    Potensi Kesan Ekonomi daripada Pilihan Raya Tergempar


    Walaupun keputusan Abe untuk mengumumkan pilihan raya tergempar merupakan sebahagian daripada niat beliau untuk mengawal ketegangan antara Jepun dengan Korea Utara, alasan penting lain bagi tindakan tersebut adalah untuk memerhati sokongan pengundi terhadap kenaikan cukai penggunaan berjadual yang akan berkuatkuasa pada bulan Oktober. Beliau merancang untuk menggunakan 40% daripada cukai tambahan tersebut sebagai pelaburan dalam perbelanjaan pendidikan dan perkhidmatan penjagaan kesihatan berbanding untuk keperluan pencen, dengan jumlah pelaburan sebanyak 2 Trilion Yen. Rancangan kerajaan untuk lebihan 5 Trilion Yen bagi rancangan cukai yang baru diusulkan ini dijangka untuk menjana peruntukan 4 Trilion Yen terhadap gabungan fiskal dan 1 untuk mempertingkatkan sistem keselamatan sosial. Pelan Abe adalah untuk menggunakan 2 Trilion sahaja. Akibatnya, pihak kerajaan mungkin perlu menggantung sasaran mereka untuk lebihan baki utama menjelang tahun kewangan 2020, yang mungkin menyebabkan berlakunya reflasi.

    Sebagai peringatan, peningkatan cukai penggunaan yang lalu tidak membawa kepada berakhirnya deflasi, namun begitu, perubahan dalam arah pergerakan BoJ dapat membawa kepada peningkatan untuk USD/JPY.

     

    Cabaran dan Kebimbangan Abe


    Dalam persiapan Abe untuk memenangi hati pengundi, beliau masih membimbangi akibat daripada peningkatan cukai penggunaan terhadap ekonomi serta kehidupan penduduk di Jepun. Polisi Abe kemungkinan besar akan turut dilaksanakan oleh pewaris beliau, jika kedudukan beliau diganti oleh pemimpin lain daripada parti yang sama, namun, sektor perkhidmatan penjagaan kanak-kanak dan kesihatan tidaklah begitu besar untuk memberikan impak yang ketara walaupun jika pakej penggalak yang dirancangkan diluluskan dengan segera.

    Pelan Abe untuk mengalihkan dana untuk perbelanjaan keselamatan sosial mungkin akan memanjangkan tempoh pembayaran balik hutang negara yang semakin menebal, yang akan dilihat oleh pelabur sebagai perbelanjaan awam yang agresif, kemudahan kewangan dan Yen yang lemah seperti yang telah sedia diketahui oleh para pelabur terhadap kepimpinan Abe. Pada masa yang sama, Koike turut meletakkan matlamat untuk mengelak daripada perbelanjaan awam yang agresif dan kemudahan kewangan, dan dengan populariti beliau yang semakin melonjak pada masa ini, pecahan anti Abe telah ditubuhkan.

    Di samping kebimbangan ekonomi dan politik, krisis Korea Utara merupakan cabaran terbesar buat Abe dan Jepun. Dengan ketegangan antara Jepun dan Korea Utara yang semakin sengit menerusi ancaman misil oleh Korea Utara dalam pada kempen Abe, beliau telah mengumumkan usulnya bahawa kerajaan akan melakukan pindaan terhadap Perlembagaan dan kuasa perundangan Jepun yang sedang bersiap sedia untuk menghadapi risiko keselamatan negara.

    Walau bagaimanapun, Abe menginginkan sebuah mandat dan berhasrat untuk melaksanakan sekatan terhadap Korea Utara, satu tindakan yang disokong oleh presiden Trump di AS, apabila masalah nuklear semasa mengganggu situasi geopolitik. Kedua-dua pemimpin pembangkang Koike dan Shii menggalakkan dialog untuk diadakan, dan bukannya dengan meneruskan tekanan.

     


  •  

    Merkel Bakal Menjawat Kerusi Canselor untuk Kali Keempat


    Walaupun undian menunjukkan parti Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Angela Merkel mendahului Pilihan Raya Jerman sebanyak 16% berbanding parti Social Democrat (SPD) Martin Schulz selepas parti Martin Schulz "gagal" dalam perdebatan, pasukan polis Jerman kini berhadapan dengan jenayah berkaitan pilihan raya yang semakin meningkat terhadap parti Alternatif berhaluan kanan untuk Jerman (AfD). Undian mendapati bahawa AfD akan turut mewakili kira-kira 10% memandangkan parti berkenaan telah menarik lebih ramai penyokong daripada kalangan anti pelampau dan anti pejuang kebangsaan, begitu juga dengan undian yang diperolehi Die Linke, manakala FDP dan Grune masing-masing memperoleh sebanyak 9.5% dan 8.2% undian.



    Wakil Parti dan Parti Campuran Berpotensi


    Sungguhpun parti CDU Merkel cenderung untuk memenangi pilihan raya pada kali ini serta kebanyakan daripada kerusi di Bundestag, beliau perlu menubuhkan sebuah parti campuran bersama parti lain, seperti yang dilakukan bersama Bavarian Sister (CSU), berikutan daripada kemungkinan besar untuk berlakunya kejatuhan singkat. Undian ini turut mencadangkan bahawa terdapat campur tangan Parti Campuran Utama, iaitu kerajaan semasa yang mentadbir. Persoalan ini berterusan, adakah CDU dan CSU akan bersatu dengan FDP jika diperlukan, atau memutuskan untuk menyertai "Parti Campuran Jamaica" bersama pihak Hijau? Pilihan lain adalah pembentukan kerajaan CDU-FDP memandangkan gabungan ini dapat mengatasi ambang sasaran untuk golongan majoriti. Satu-satunya risiko kepada Merkel adalah gabungan SPD-Parti Campuran Hijau Kiri , yang diterajui oleh Martin Schulz.


    Dalam sistem Bundestag semasa, sebanyak 631 kerusi mewakili CDU manakala 309 mewakili CSU, diikuti dengan 193 kerusi SPD, 64 kerusi Die Linke, dan 63 kerusi Parti Hijau.



    Pendapat Pelabur


    Debaran politik 2017 diikuti dengan tekanan geopolitik di Semenanjung Korea Utara dan kebangkitan Matawang Digital telah membawa kepada kesejahteraan dan kestabilan ekonomi kepada Zon Eropah sebagai hujung minggu Dolar. Walaupun Macron dan Merkel masing-masing bersetuju untuk memulihkan Zon Eropah ketika Euro masih kekal kukuh, tanpa perlu memuktamadkan sebarang perincian mengenai cara untuk pelabur yakin dengan peluang untuk menstabilkan kemelesetan kesatuan kewangan dan untuk membentuk semula Zon Eropah yang lebih baik. Dengan kedudukan Merkel yang mendahului undian, kestabilan dan kesejahteraan dijangka untuk terus berlangsung bukan sahaja di Jerman, sebagaimana yang diinginkan oleh para pengundi, tetapi ia juga dijangka untuk meliputi seluruh Eropah, memandangkan benua itu kini menerajui sentimen pelabur untuk lebih bersifat kelembuan mengenai Zon Eropah.



    Cabaran Akan Datang


    Dengan kemajuan dalam ekonomi di Jerman, tekanan masih dirasai. Masalah paling utama yang dihadapi oleh parti semasa, dan parti campuran akan datang merupakan isu imigresen, dan ketidaksamaan genre dan ekonomi. Menurut Reuters, populasi imigran telah mencecah satu rekod baru dengan gelombang imigran baru dari Timur Tengah dan Afrika. Lebih dari satu juta imigran telah diizinkan untuk memasuki negara tersebut selepas keputusan Merkel untuk membuka sempadan, yang menjadi salah satu alasan yang telah melonjak populariti AfD. Kini dengan lebih ramai wanita yang bekerja dalam keadaan yang teruk daripada lelaki, dan memperoleh pendapatan empat kali lebih rendah berbanding lelaki, ketidaksamaan genre dan ekonomi kini semakin meningkat, seperti yang dilaporkan oleh pihak kerajaan. Selain itu, ketidaksamaan ekonomi didapati semakin berleluasa berikutan taburan semula pendapatan yang tidak berkesan dan perubahan berstruktur dalam pasaran buruh.  Maka Merkel dan parti Campuran baru itu kini diharap dapat membawa kepada jalan penyelesaian terhadap isu ketidaksamaan genre dan ekonomi berkenaan.


     

     


  •  

    Laporan Khas NFP Ogos


    Laporan yang lebih penting daripada biasa dikeluarkan pada 4 Ogos apabila keraguan terhadap kenaikan kadar telah meningkat susulan inflasi yang perlahan. Di samping pendekatan Rizab Persekutuan untuk mengurangkan kunci kira-kira $4.5 trilion, bacaan pekerjaan bulan Julai ialah perkara yang paling penting bagi bank pusat dan pelabur.


    Bacaan NFP bulan Julai diumumkan dengan sangat positif kerana jangkaan konsensus ialah kenaikan 183K dalam perubahan pekerjaan manakala pekerjaan sebenar yang dihasilkan mencapai bacaan 209K. Kadar pengangguran berubah sedikit kepada 4.3% dan bacaan Jumlah Gaji Bukan Perladangan meningkat daripada 146.41M kepada 146.62M, pertumbuhan bulanan sebanyak 1.71%.


    Laporan yang sebenar menunjukkan kenaikan terutamanya dalam sektor Senggang dan Hospitaliti (+62K), Perkhidmatan Pendidikan dan Kesihatan (+54K) dan Perkhidmatan Profesional dan Perniagaan (+49K), manakala Pembuatan (+16K), Aktiviti Kewangan (+6K), Perdagangan Borong (+6K), Pembinaan (+6K) dan Kerajaan (+4K) memperoleh peningkatan yang lebih kecil. Jadual berikut menunjukkan Perubahan Pekerjaan mengikut Industri:



    Perubahan dalam Gaji Bukan Perladangan AS pada aras semasa ialah 209.00K, menurun daripada 231.00K bulan lepas dan menurun daripada 291.00K setahun lepas. Perubahan sebanyak -9.52% daripada bulan lepas dan -28.18% daripada setahun lepas. Walaupun bilangan orang yang bekerja mencapai aras tinggi baru sebanyak 153.5 juta, upah tetap tidak berubah. Malah, kita perlu memberikan perhatian terhadap bacaan dan peristiwa berikut untuk laporan pekerjaan yang akan datang:


    1. Kadar Pengangguran menurun daripada 4.4% kepada 4.3%.


    2. Kadar Penyertaan meningkat daripada 60.1% kepada 60.2%.


    3. Pertumbuhan pekerjaan ADP menurun kepada 178K daripada 187K yang dijangka manakala laporan BLS mencatatkan kenaikan daripada 182K kepada 209K.


    4. Euro mencapai aras tinggi baru bagi tempoh 2½ tahun berbanding Dolar selepas Simposium di Jackson Hole pada minggu lepas.



    Sekarang, mari perhatikan dengan lebih teliti pada lima perkara penting...


    1. Kadar pengangguran lebih rendah: Walaupun terdapat penurunan kecil dalam kadar pengangguran kepada 4.3%, terendah sejak bulan Mei 2001 yang juga dicapai pada bulan Julai, kebanyakan pekerjaan yang ditambah dalam tenaga kerja datangnya daripada sektor pendapatan rendah dan paling kukuh daripada pekerjaan separuh masa. Pekerjaan separuh masa meningkat 349K manakala sepenuh masa menurun sebanyak 54K.



    Individu-individu ini yang akan lebih memilih pekerjaan sepenuh masa, bekerja separuh masa kerana waktu kerja mereka telah dikurangkan atau kerana mereka tidak dapat mencari pekerjaan sepenuh masa – oleh itu, kadar yang menurun bermakna lebih ramai orang bekerja tetapi mereka bekerja dengan waktu bekerja yang berkurangan dan mendapat pendapatan yang berkurangan, dengan itu menyebabkan peningkatan dalam kadar penyertaan. Ambil perhatian bahawa waktu mingguan purata kekal tidak berubah pada 34.5 jam seminggu.



    2. Kadar penyertaan meningkat: Kadar penyertaan berubah sedikit pada bulan ini tetapi mata peratusan meningkat sebanyak 0.4% pada tahun ini. 1.6 juta orang dihubungkan secara sedikit dengan tenaga pekerja, 321K lebih rendah daripada setahun lepas. Pekerja yang kecewa, subset daripada pekerja yang dihubungkan secara sedikit, yang percaya bahawa tiada pekerjaan yang tersedia untuk mereka, mencatatkan bacaan 536K manakala orang yang bekerja menunjukkan kenaikan 345K.



    3. Pertumbuhan pekerjaan ADP bulan Jun mencatatkan bacaan 178K, lebih buruk daripada 187K yang dijangka: Laporan ADP membayangkan terdapat kemungkinan laporan pekerjaan yang melebihi jangkaan kerana kenaikan 9K telah menambah prospek laporan NFP yang positif, tetapi perkara ini tidak benar kerana purata pertumbuhan gaji swasta ADP bagi tempoh 12 bulan yang lepas adalah melebihi 200K. Anggaran ini merupakan pertama sejak tempoh yang lama yang diumumkan seperti jangkaan kurang 200K dan NFP menunjukkan keputusan yang sangat baik. Pelabur telah hilang keyakinan terhadap laporan ADP kerana perbezaan antara ADP dan BLS semakin meningkat. Laporan Jun juga telah disemak semula daripada 222K kepada 231K, tetapi laporan bulan Mei telah disemak semula menurun daripada 152K kepada 145K.



    4. Had tinggi hutang menyebabkan Euro meningkat tinggi: Walaupun Yellen dan Draghi telah mengecewakan pelabur pada hari Jumaat lepas kerana tidak menyentuh tentang dasar kewangan, Euro telah memecah aras tinggi rintangan teknikal 1.1913 yang lepas. Ketakutan terhadap had tinggi hutang dan juga terhadap taufan Harvey dan kemungkinan ekonomi AS yang semakin lemah telah menyebabkan pasangan ini meningkat ke aras tertinggi sejak bulan Januari 2015. Pergerakan ini berlaku selepas pengukuhan selama 3 minggu dan boleh menjadi permulaan bagi gelombang kenaikan seterusnya dalam rali Euro. Berdasarkan carta bulanan, keadaannya kini semakin agak jelas.



    Kata penutup...


    Ingatlah bahawa kenaikan yang ketara berlaku di kebanyakan pasangan mata wang, dengan kesan yang lebih rendah berbanding kenaikan pada EURUSD disebabkan oleh ketaktentuan yang lebih lemah. Sebagai contoh, peluang mungkin meningkat pada USDJPY, USDCHF, Emas dan sebagainya, sudah tentu bergantung pada selera risiko anda. Selain itu, harga biasanya kembali ke aras biasa menjelang penghujung hari, oleh itu pelabur mungkin mencari peluang untuk mengambil kesempatan apabila pasaran mula bertenang.



    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung pada e-mel ini atau yang dipautkan daripada e-mel ini diberikan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan tidak mengandungi nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak menerima liabiliti untuk sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had kepada, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang boleh berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan pada maklumat ini.

     


  •  

    Apa yang dijangkakan dari NFP bulan ini?


    Laporan NFP bulan Mei yang jelas “ringkas” kerana jangkaan konsensus untuk 185K peningkatan dalam pertukaran pekerjaan, data sebenar menunjukkan kejatuhan sehingga 138K, dan kadar pengangguran sedikit berubah kepada 4.3%; kedua-dua data ini adalah rekod beberapa tahun. Euro memperolehi melebihi 70 pip kerana keputusan pertumbuhan yang kurang, hampir 50K di bawah jangkaan median di tengah-tengah peserta pasaran yang meningkatkan sentimen bulis apabila ekonomi A.S. berkembang dengan sederhana.



    Laporan sebenar menunjukkan peningkatan terutamanya dalam penjagaan kesihatan, perkhidmatan profesional dan perniagaan serta perkhidmatan makanan dan tempat-tempat minum, aktiviti kewangan dan sedikit perlombongan.


    Pekerjaan dalam pendidikan dan penjagaan kesihatan mendahului dengan 47,000, sementara perkhidmatan profesional dan perniagaan meningkat kepada 38,000. Premis beriadah dan hospitaliti juga menunjukkan peningkatan sebanyak 31,000 diikuti oleh pembinaan, perkhidmatan kewangan, perlombongan serta pengangkutan dan pergudangan, di mana ia menampakkan sedikit peningkatan sepanjang bulan tersebut, dengan masing-masing mencapai 11,000, 11,000, 6,000 dan 3,600.


    Selain daripada industri-industri yang telah disebutkan, industri pengeluaran, perdagangan borong dan runcit, maklumat, utiliti dan kerajaan menunjukkan sedikit perubahan. Perkara yang paling penting untuk turut dipertimbangkan bagi NFP Jun adalah butiran-butiran berikut:


    1. Kadar Pengangguran jatuh daripada 4.4% kepada 4.3%, sementara kadar kekurangan pekerja jatuh daripada 8.6% kepada 8.4%


    2.Kadar Penyertaan jatuh daripada 62.9% kepada 62.7%, pendapatan mengikut jam selaras dengan jangkaan sebanyak 0.2%


    3. Perkembangan pekerjaan ADP meningkat kepada 253K menyokong NFP yang baik tetapi laporan bulan sebelumnya telah disemak semula


    4. Euro mencipta aras tinggi baru tetapi Indeks Dolar tidak mencipta aras rendah baru


    5. Defisit perdagangan April lebih besar daripada yang dijangkakan



    Sekarang, mari lihat pada lima butiran tersebut dengan lebih dekat…


    1. Kadar pengangguran dan kekurangan pekerja yang lebih rendah: Walaupun penurunan mengelirukan dalam kadar pengangguran kepada 4.3%, yang terendah sejak bulan Mei 2001, kadar kekurangan pekerja (U-6) juga menurun daripada 8.6% kepada 8.4%, yang terendah sejak bulan November 2007. Carta di bawah menggambarkan kadar pengangguran rasmi lawan U-6. Kedua-dua kadar menurun disebabkan kadar penyertaan yang rendah, daripada data pengangguran positif.



    2. Kadar penyertaan jatuh, pendapatan mengikut jam seperti yang dijangka, namun dengan bilangan yang disemak: Kadar penyertaan jatuh dua persepuluh kepada 62.7% daripada 62.9% yang dijangka, tahap terendah sejak tahun 70-an. Kadar penyertaan bulan Mei membawakan peningkatan kembali hampir ke tahap di mana ia berakhir pada Mei 2016. Penganalisis berhujah bahawa nilai pada bulan Mei yang rendah adalah dipengaruhi oleh kebermusiman kerana pengambilan pada musim bunga terbeban di kerana graduan-graduan baru yang masih tidak memasuki tenaga buruh. Bagi purata kadar mengikut jam, peningkatan sebanyak 0.2% mengekalkan tahap yang sama seperti yang dijangka oleh penganalisis, namun, para pedagang seharusnya ingat bahawa kadar jangkaan telah diramalkan pada peningkatan 0.3%, dan nilai ini kemudiannya telah disemak semula pada bulan April, dan itu bukan satu-satunya semakan yang berlaku.


    3. Pertumbuhan pekerjaan ADP masuk sebanyak 253K, lebih daripada 181K yang dijangkakan, sementara laporan bulan Mac dan April menunjukkan semakan lebih rendah sebanyak 66K.Laporan ADP membayangkan kemungkinan melebihi jangkaan laporan pekerjaan kerana peningkatan 72K meningkatkan prospek laporan NFP positif, walau bagaimanapun ini tidak harus berlaku kerana dua sebab; pertama, selama tempoh 7-bulan terakhir, ADP telah terlebihjangkah NFP swasta sebanyak enam daripada tujuh kali, dengan purata melebihi 55K, dan kedua, kecapahan daripada data senarai gaji yang dikumpul selepas akhir bulan ADP menjadikan ADP mudah terjejas, terutamanya pada bulan Mei kerana terdapat varians 12-hari. Carta berikut membandingkan laporan ADP lawan NFP:



    253K pekerjaan yang ditambah oleh ADP dan jumlah sebenar ADP sebanyak 138K adalah kejutan yang besar kerana ia adalah salah satu kecapahan terbesar dalam beberapa tahun.


    4. Euro mencipta setahun tinggi semasa siaran berita tetapi Indeks Dolar tidak mencipta rendah baru. Euro-Dolar mencapai nilai yang tinggi sebanyak 1.13000 pada bulan November yang lalu, sementara Indeks Dolar mencapai nilai rendah sebanyak 95.905 pada hari yang sama presiden A.S. dilantik. Pada 2 Jun, tarikh pelancaran laporan NFP Mei, Euro menguji semula tahap 1.13000, namun, Indeks Dolar langsung tidak menghampiri nilai rendah pada bulan November, hanya bergerak sedikit ke 96.605, dan hanya berjarak 300 pip daripada pengujian semula aras 905 pada tahun lalu. Tidak semua mata wang utama menunjukkan prestasi yang baik menentang dolar dengan penyumbang utama UsdJpy, yang membentuk 13.6% daripada indeks.



    5. Defisit perdagangan April adalah lebih besar daripada yang dijangka, oleh itu KDNK suku kedua telah disemak semula merosot daripada 4.0% kepada 3.4%. Disebabkan eksport jatuh dan import meningkat, masing-masing sebanyak 0.3% dan 0.8%, yang menunjukkan import berkembang lebih pantas berbanding eksport sementara barangan dan perkhidmatan A.S. menjadi lebih murah untuk warga Eropah. Ini menyebabkan penganalisis mengurangkan semakan semula mereka sebanyak 0.6% lebih rendah pada jangkaan KDNK disebalik nilai Dolar yang lebih lemah kerana baki dagangan adalah komponen utama bagi KDNK. Perubahan dalam nilai Dolar telah menyebabkan dagangan A.S. merosot dan sumbangan eksport barangan dan perkhidmatan kepada KDNK jatuh daripada -0.0217 pada Q1 kepada -0.5216 pada Q2 seperti yang digambarkan dalam carta berikut.



    Penutup kata…


    Ingat bahawa lonjakan yang tajam berlaku dalam kebanyakan pasangan mata wang, dengan impak yang lebih rendah berbanding lonjakan pada EURUSD disebabkan kemeruapan yang lebih lemah. Contohnya, peluang mungkin timbul pada USDJPY, USDCHF, Emas, dll., bergantung pada selera risiko anda. Sebagai tambahan, harga biasanya kembali semula ke tahap normal sebelum hari berakhir, oleh itu, para pelabur boleh mengambil kesempatan terhadap pasaran sebaik sahaja pasaran mula bertenang.



    Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung dalam e-mel ini atau dipautkan daripada e-mel ini disediakan sebagai komentar pasaran umum dan tidak dilihat sebagai nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak menanggung liabiliti untuk sebarang kerugian dan kerosakan, termasuk tidak terhad kepada sebarang kehilangan keuntungan yang mungkin berlaku secara langsung dan tidak langsung, hasil daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan terhadap maklumat yang diberi.

     


  •  

    Euro – Yen hit a fresh 17-Month high at 130.761 earlier in the week due to the latest sell-off in the Euro Bond market while BoJ is expected to hold its soft monetary policy unchanged as the introduction of Yield-Curve control in 2016 is far from improving inflation. According to analyst from Danske Bank, it is very early to even start talking about an exit strategy, despite that the weekly 200 SMA stands firm around 130.700.The recent decline to 129.000 levels may be the beginning of the impulse wave investors have been waiting for.



    The record move was supported by Draghi’s remarks which were heard at the Central Bank Forum in Portugal back in June, as well as ECB’s shift to tighten monetary policy, however, the pair managed to maintain a bullish bias since April 27 th , above 120.000, since BoJ decided to keep interest rates unchanged on both April 27 and June 16 reports. With the next interest rate decision approaching on the 20 th of July, it will be very interesting to keep an eye on the price of EurJpy and predict how rates will change in the future.


    Speculation of the pair may be completed via a few different tools. Our Correlation Matrix shows us a positive correlation of 83% with USDJPY, a negative correlation of 65% with EURUSD, both based on a period of 300 days.

     


  •  

    Harga Minyak Mentah - Ringkasnya


    Minyak telah menjadi tumpuan sejak beberapa minggu yang lalu, tidak menyatakan sejak awal tahun 2017, di mana emas hitam ini mencecah $55.72 setong. Krisis geopolitik di Timur Tengah, Putera Mahkota yang baru, kenaikan yang tidak dapat dibendung dalam kegiatan syal dan penggerudian dan pengeluaran AS menyebabkan para pelabur bertaruh terhadap minyak mentah, membawa harga minyak hampir 20% lebih rendah sejak Januari; penurunan terbesar suku pertama ke suku kedua dalam 20 tahun (lihat carta harian di bawah).



    Oleh itu, inilah yang berlaku dengan harga minyak dan minyak berakhir dengan mencecah aras terendah 10 bulan pada minggu lepas, di mana lebih daripada 560,000 kontrak bertukar tangan:

    Ketegangan geopolitik: Perang diplomatik Saudi dengan Qatar atas tuduhan menyokong ISIS dan putera mahkota baru yang bernama Mohammad bin Salman, anak lelaki Raja Salman, adalah risiko geopolitik terbaru yang muncul di pasaran minyak. Walaupun putera baru tidak mungkin membuat apa-apa perubahan besar kepada dasar pengeluaran minyak secara langsung, dasar asing yang lebih agresif boleh menyebabkan risiko premium politik kembali dalam harga minyak. Para pelabur seolah-olah telah meningkatkan pertaruhan mereka terhadap rombakan diraja kerajaan Saudi terhadap pendirian Raja terhadap Iran dan Qatar, dua pengeluar besar di dunia, dengan yang terakhir menjadi tumpuan untuk membiayai ISIS; Anggaran pengeluaran Qatar adalah 620,000 tong sehari. Bagaimanapun, para pelabur memperhalusi jangkaan mereka yang mana putera mahkota baru dalam misi untuk menamatkan kebergantungan terhadap minyak dan beralih kepada pasaran tenaga global. Malahan, putera itu ingin menjual saham besar dalam syarikat jualan negara, dan untuk itu, dia memerlukan pasaran minyak yang stabil untuk mendapatkan harga yang baik, dan dengan itu ketidakpastian terhadap turun dan naik meningkat.

    Peningkatan Pengeluaran Syal & Pengurangan Pengeluaran OPEC: Meskipun pengaruh Saudi terhadap pasaran, kemasukan kasar ke kilang petroleum meningkat kepada rekod tertinggi sebanyak 17.7 juta tong sehari disebalik peningkatan pengeluaran Syal AS; 30,000 sehari, membuatkan harga minyak lebih rendah. Produk yang dibekalkan ke pasaran AS juga meningkat kerana inventori serta eksport berada pada paras yang tingg. Operasi penapisan mingguan mencecah 17 juta barel sehari sebanyak 24 kali sejak Julai lalu namun utiliti tidak mengikuti kerana kapasiti meningkat. Pertubuhan Negara Pengeksport Petroleum memutuskan untuk menghasilkan kurang daripada kapasiti semasa untuk jangka masa yang lebih lama daripada jangkaan disebabkan kerisauan terhadap lebihan minyak mentah sementara syal AS melepasi jangkaan. Sasaran pengeluaran akan kekal pada 32.5 juta tong sehari sehingga suku pertama 2018, namun kekhawatiran berterusan dimana inventori berbanding dengan purata untuk lima tahun menjadi alasan penting utama dalam keputusan OPEC (lihat ilustrasi di bawah).



    Lebihan Pengeluaran: Penganalisis telah menyaksikan penurunan harga Minyak sejak beberapa minggu yang lalu dan melepasi tahap lebih jual manakala pengeluaran minyak mentah AS meningkat lebih daripada 550,000 tong sehari sejak keputusan OPEC memotong pengeluaran, menaikan eksport kepada hampir 1 juta dalam beberapa minggu kebelakangan ini. EIA menjangka kenaikan pengeluaran sebanyak 860,000 tong sehari sehingga suku keempat 2017, berbanding 210,000 yang diramalkan November lalu, yang menimbulkan kebimbangan sama ada pengeluaran cukup untuk mengimbangi aliran OPEC yang lebih rendah atau tidak, juga mengambil kira peningkatan kilang. Selepas OPEC kehilangan 15% daripada pendapatan tahun lepas berbanding tahun 2015, penganalisis percaya bahawa rendah baru-baru ini boleh menjadi aras terendah pasaran minyak. Pada masa yang sama, penghapusan pengharaman eksport AS pada bulan Disember 2015 dan gangguan Nigeria telah menyokong eksport minyak AS, meningkatkan permintaan untuk pengeluaran lebih, peningkatan kebimbangan terhadap lebihan bekalan ketika dunia mempunyai terlalu banyak minyak. Peningkatan pengeluaran, bekalan mentah dan penawaran berlebihan memberi perspektif yang berbeza kepada pelabur dan prospek permintaan minyak dunia jangka pendek EIA dengan keutamaan dalam aktiviti OPEC, seperti yang ditunjukkan dalam carta di bawah.


     


  •  

    Tentang FOMC dan peranannya

    FOMC ialah lembaga pembuat dasar kewangan bagi Sistem Rizab Persekutuan. Tanggungjawab utama jawatankuasa ini adalah untuk mengambil tindakan bagi mempengaruhi bekalan dan kos wang. Dalam mesyuarat FOMC, ahli Jawatankuasa mengkaji semula keadaan ekonomi dan kewangan A.S. untuk menjalankan dasar kewangan mereka dan menggalakkan pekerjaan maksimum, harga yang stabil dan kadar faedah jangka panjang yang sederhana di AS. Rizab Persekutuan menjalankan dasar kewangan dengan mengurus kadar faedah jangka pendek secara langsung dan tidak langsung, ini mempengaruhi harga saham, kekayaan dan kadar pertukaran mata wang.


    Keistimewaan mesyuarat FOMC bulan Jun

    Mudah sahaja, ahli Jawatankuasa yakin bahawa mereka telah mencapai mandat duaan mereka; inflasi sekitar 2% dan guna tenaga penuh. Mari kita terokai perkara ini. Kita akan melihat kadar faedah dan inflasi terlebih dahulu, dan bagaimana perkara ini mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi bagi tempoh masa baru-baru ini. Untuk ini, kita perlu melihat graf berikut:



    Graf ini mengesahkan bahawa walaupun kadar faedah berterusan meningkat pada pembentukan semula dasar fiskal utama dan meningkatkan kuasa membeli dolar pengguna atau CPI, kadar pertumbuhan KDNK Suku 1 2017 telah mencapai aras terendah sejak tahun 2016, walaupun meningkat suku tahun ke suku tahun apabila dibandingkan dengan Suku 4 tahun 2016, mengisyaratkan bahawa ekonomi AS semakin perlahan. Perlu diambil perhatian, CPI mewakili inflasi, manakala KDNK mewakili prestasi ekonomi.


    Minit mesyuarat daripada mesyuarat FOMC bulan Mei mengesahkan bahawa inflasi masih berada pada landasan, tetapi semakin perlahan dalam ekonomi yang menyusut. Khabar angin memberitahu bahawa pembuat dasar tidak mungkin akan mengelakkan satu lagi kenaikan kadar pada mesyuarat ke-14 bulan Jun apabila bergerak ke arah kunci kira-kira $4.5tn Rizab Persekutuan. Namun begitu, Rizab Persekutuan mesti berfikir dengan berhati-hati kerana kebarangkalian bagi peningkatan kadar faedah dan indeks mengejut, telah berpecah dengan ketara sejak bulan Mei. Indeks mengejut telah menurun, yang bermakna pengumuman ekonomi tidak seimbang dengan konsensus.


    Contohnya keputusan NFP terbaru, yang melebarkan jurang antara kebarangkalian kadar faedah dan indeks mengejut; aras pengangguran jatuh kepada aras terendah tahun 2001, tetapi jangkaan perubahan pekerjaan 43K - itu suatu kejutan. Selain itu, kadar pengangguran menurun ke aras terendah bagi 16 tahun, tetapi bukan atas sebab yang baik; penyertaan tenaga kerja menurun kepada 62.7% dan pertumbuhan upah juga mengecewakan pada 0.2% m/m. Graf di bawah mengesahkan bahawa walaupun kadar pengangguran rendah, lebih ramai orang terkeluar daripada gambaran pekerjaan, yang menunjukkan kekurangan dalam tenaga pekerja AS.



    Keseluruhannya, ini merupakan laporan NFP yang buruk, walaupun Rizab Persekutuan percaya mandat mereka telah tercapai. Malah mungkin seburuk bagi satu lagi kenaikan dalam kadar faedah yang boleh difikirkan. Kesilapan dasar Rizab Persekutuan kini boleh menyebabkan hasil perbendaharaan jangka pendek dan panjang semakin menurun; keluk hasil telah menjadi peramal yang sangat baik bagi aktiviti ekonomi masa depan dan inflasi. Oleh itu, Rizab Persekutuan mesti berfikir dengan baik bagi peranan Jawatankuasa untuk menyederhanakan kadar faedah jangka panjang dengan mengurus kadar jangka pendek secara langsung. Mari kita lihat maklumat yang boleh diperoleh daripada keluk hasil:



    Hasil perbendaharaan 10 tahun menurun 4.4 mata asas semasa pengumuman data Gaji Bukan Perladangan terbaru apabila pelabur bertukar kepada aset yang lebih kepada pengelakan risiko, manakala ia turun sebanyak 5.75 mata asas sejak pilihan raya kerana pelabur bimbang tentang dasar pentadbiran baru.


    Hasil jangka panjang bergerak ke aras aras rendah sebelum Trump, manakala peningkatan hasil jangka pendek 3 bulan menunjukkan kenaikan kadar faedah adalah sangat berkemungkinan.


    Bank pusat boleh mengelakkan kenaikan kadar bulan Jun sehingga ekonomi A.S. kukuh kerana hasil perbendaharaan terus mendatar dan cukup jelas, spread 10 tahun/2 tahun semakin lebar. Keluk mendatar menunjukkan ketidaktentuan, spread yang semakin lebar boleh menunjukkan tempoh kemelesetan yang akan datang. Oleh itu, percubaan Rizab Persekutuan untuk meningkatkan kadar faedah jauh daripada dasar kadar faedah sifar (ZIRP) dan ke arah penormalan, mungkin bukan idea yang baik pada masa ini. Selain itu, ramalan KDNK 3% setahun akan meningkatkan tekanan inflasi, tetapi ia boleh mengisyaratkan bahawa pelonggaran dasar mungkin perlu.


    Keputusan Rizab Persekutuan untuk menurunkan kadar boleh meningkatkan keluk bagi tempoh sederhana, kadar yang tinggi boleh menolak keluk ke tempoh kemelesetan. Dengan Dolar AS menurun 0.6% pada separuh fiskal 2017 dan ketidaktentuan politik masih lagi risiko terbesar bagi ekonomi.

     


  •  

    Langkah London Memerangi Keganasan Menyebabkan Pasaran Menjunam Jatuh

    Pihak polis di London mengukuhkan keselamatan di sepanjang River Thames susulan serangan ISIS ketiga dalam masa 3 bulan. 7 mangsa diumumkan terbunuh dan 21 mangsa yang tercedera dalam keadaan kritikal. Jeremy Corbyn dan Tim Farron telah mencabar Theresa May atas siasatan yang lama tertangguh terhadap pembiayaan dan sokongan asing terhadap kumpulan jihad di UK, selepas Kementerian Dalam Negeri mencadangkan siasatan tersebut mungkin tidak diumumkan. Niaga hadapan saham A.S. dan paun sedikit menurun selepas serangan tersebut. S&P 500 dan Nasdaq kedua-duanya jatuh kira-kira 0.14% pada petang hari Ahad, manakala Purata Industri Dow Jones jatuh 0.11%. Paun jatuh kira-kira 0.2% berbanding dolar pada pagi ini ketika pembukaan pasaran.


    Buka Akaun Sekarang

     


  •  

    WHAT ‘S SPECIAL ABOUT THIS MONTH’S NFP ?

    April’s NFP consensus expectation was for a 194.000 increase in employment change. EUSUSD reacted in a positive manner, giving the opportunity to market participants to take advantage of a +40 pips move (see graph below).



    The actual report showed an increase of 211.000 jobs compared to the slow growth of 98.000 positions that were added in the previous reporting month of March, whilst unemployment rate continued to slide. A solid employment report with nothing signalling a diversion of the Federal Reserve Bank from its transitory bet.



    Most job gains (see figure) were seen in Leisure and Hospitality (+55.000), Education and Health Service (+41.000), Professional and Business Services (+39.000), Financial Activities (+19.000) and Mining and Logging (+10.000).


    Does US economic stability mean we should expect more bulls in the upcoming NFP? No, not necessarily. This alone cannot constitute a good reason. Here’s our top-5 factors investors may want to consider for May’s NFP.

    1. An Unemployment Rate number lower than the expected does not necessarily mean the markets will react positively, however they will definitely be highly volatile.

    2. A lower figure on the Unemployment Rate will be a new record low since May 2007, signifying a boost in the US Dollar may occur.

    3. The Employment-Population ratio and positive GDP are an indication of how good the economic health of the US has been which could have a positive impact to the USD.

    4. May has been the best month since 1990, a month in which markets have been reacting positively for the US Dollar over the past 17 years, adding an average of 177.700 jobs per May.

    5. Statistics show that there is a correlation between the Dollar Index and NFP % change, signalling that the recent Dollar Index decline may have a positive impact on NFP.


    Now, let’s take a closer look at those key five points…


    1. Fed’s unemployment rate forecast looks vulnerable due to 3-month average of 177.700 growth in jobs (see figure below). Chances are that the Fed will expect a further decrease in unemployment rates, however keeping up with the projected labor force of 115.000 may prove to be the cause of higher inflation.



    2. April’s unemployment rate fell to lowest since May 2007, and has been in a bearish momentum since last October, excluding the month of January. There is some bragging on the record low from Washington however this growth pace will not definitely keep pushing the unemployment rate down. Since interest rates remained unchanged in the last FOMC meeting this could be suggesting a dovish move. The Feds decision to prioritise low unemployment over low inflation could play a big part as the unemployment rate/ labor force numbers come together (see below graph).



    3. April’s data reflect to Fed’s bet that 1st quarter GDP was negatively impacted due to residual seasonality issues. Policy makers get a confirmation that the Bureau of Economic Analysis indeed left some seasonal effects out of the equation when computing the actual performance of the US economy. The conclusion is that the unemployment rate may be ‘lagging’ and a further decline could be seen. The civilian employment-population ratio may be a good indicator to look at as it is not as affected by seasonal variations. The current E/P ratio is 0.1% behind Feb 2009 level of 60.3% (see graph below):



    4. May has historically been the best month since 1990. Average change in employment for the period has been 127.995 with 1994 being the best year on record (see graph below). Looking through previous statistics reports could provide valuable insights that have a directed impact on the markets, on the value of the U.S Dollar as well as on the price of Gold. May is also considered to be the best month for wage growth.



    5. US Dollar Index has been relatively low during May due to political turmoil. The Dollar Index slid to 97.43 as investors saw an opportunity to focus on safe haven currency pairs. But how does this relate to NFP, you may ask? Simply put, since there is a negative correlation on the negative side between the change in non-farm payroll and the US Dollar Index this means we could be expecting another positive NFP for the US in May.



    A closing word…


    Remember that sharp spikes occur across many currency pairs, with a lower impact than the spikes on EURUSD due to weaker volatility. For example opportunities may arise on USDJPY, USDCHF, Gold etc., depending always on your risk appetite. In addition, the price normally retraces back to normal levels by the end of the day, so, investors may look to take advantage of the market once the market starts settling down.

     


  •  

    MASA UNTUK …MENUNJUKKAN PREJUDIS

    Pemecatan Pengarah F.B.I. James Comey pada minggu lepas akan kekal dalam sejarah. Presiden Donald Trump menjelaskan pemecatan tersebut disebabkan pengendalian Comey dalam siasatan terhadap "Skandal E-mel Hillary Clinton". Menurut The New York Times, Comey baru sahaja meminta sumber tambahan untuk siasatan Trump/Rusia daripada Timbalan AG Rosenstein. Siasatan tersebut dikaitkan dengan penggodaman Rusia terhadap Jawatankuasa Kebangsaan Demokratik dan kempen Hillary untuk mempengaruhi pilihan raya demi kepentingan bakal Presiden Donald Trump.


    Pegawai rasmi berkata bekas Pengarah F.B.I. tersebut telah menyiasat perkara tersebut dengan bersungguh-sungguh sebelum pemecatan beliau, menyebabkan rakyat Amerika mengesyaki bahawa tindakan tersebut ialah reaksi Trump untuk menutupnya. Kebimbangan selanjutnya timbul selepas laporan Coney tentang memo dengan perincian tentang cubaan beliau untuk menyiasat Penasihat Keselamatan Kebangsaan Trump, Michael Flynn berkenaan dakwaan baru yang berhubung dengan kemungkinan Trump berkongsi maklumat keselamatan negara yang sulit dengan pegawai Rusia. Comey mendakwa bahawa Presiden Trump meminta beliau menutup siasatan tersebut. Dakwaan baru itu boleh menjadi asas kepada pemecatan; mengeluarkan Presiden daripada Pejabat, hujah penentang Trump.


    Siasatan terhadap dakwaan hubungan antara Trump dan Rusia akan diselia oleh Bekas Pengarah F.B.I. Robert Mueller. Presiden Putin menawarkan ketelusan penuh berkenaan minit mesyuarat.


    Presiden Trump mempertahankan diri beliau di rangkaian sosial, walau bagaimanapun, kesannya terhadap pasaran dan Dolar AS telah dramatik manakala VIX atau dikenali sebagai indeks kebimbangan semakin meningkat. Indeks Dolar AS jatuh ke aras 97.36 sejak beberapa hari yang lalu manakala EURUSD menunjukkan keuntungan yang besar sehingga 250 pip (lihat carta di bawah) dalam tempoh yang sama. Pelabur beralih ke pasangan safe haven seperti Emas, Swiss Franc dan Yen manakala Zon Euro juga meningkat dengan sokongan kestabilan politik dan prospek ekonomi yang baik.


    CARTA 1 JAM EURUSD



    Pada 18 Mei yang lalu, video tentang Comey tersebar dalam talian yang mendedahkan maklumat yang membersihkan dakwaan terhadap Trump yang dituduh meminta Comey menghentikan siasatan. Perkara ini memberikan harapan kepada para pelabur. Pasaran bertindak balas dengan positif untuk Dolar AS, apabila penurunan mendadak ditunjukkan dalam EURUSD dan terutamanya GBPUSD yang turun 100 pip dalam masa 5 minit (lihat carta di bawah).


    CARTA 5 MINIT GBPUSD



    GBPUSD telah melepasi aras rintangan utama 1.3000 pada hari yang sama. Selepas itu laman web konservatif menyatakan bahawa para pedagang tersalah tafsir tentang video tersebut dan video itu tidak menjelaskan sama ada Trump atau sesiapa pun, pernah meminta bekas pengarah F.B.I untuk menamatkan siasatan. Comey diminta oleh jawatankuasa kongres untuk memberikan keterangan tentang memo tersebut, di bawah sumpah, bermakna Trump mungkin menghadapi masalah baru dan drama baru di A.S. Pendedahan dijangka dilakukan pada hari Rabu, 24 Mei dan dijangka akan berlaku ketaktentuan. Perhatikan dengan teliti.

     


  •  

    French Elections: The Vote That Could Devastate The EURO

    On 23 April 2017, the French electorate will vote for a new President. Whilst market pundits are split on who is likely to take the Presidential title, all agree that the vote outcome may mean bad news for the European Union and for the Euro. The impact of the French elections will have consequences beyond France and beyond Europe, and is likely to impact on the global economy. How will you tailor your trading strategy to accommodate such impact?


    Goodbye to an unpopular President

    Francois Hollande’s approval ratings with the French populace have fluctuated wildly during his tenure as President, ultimately securing him as one of the most unpopular French Presidents of all time. Presiding over a country struggling to overcome great economic difficulty, he has failed to fulfill his manifesto pledge to bring down unemployment, and leaves behind him a fragile, culturally diverse & disillusioned electorate.


    A French revolution to rock the Euro

    The implications of the vote are far-reached and will have a tangible impact. While the two strongest candidates for the Presidency both promise to offer relief, change and an improved quality of life to the frustrated electorate, they both have very different ways of achieving such a result. Famously coining the EU as an ‘Anti-democratic monster’, Le Pen – President of the far-right party, The National Front - adopts a zero-tolerance approach to the Eurozone and pledges to take steps to follow Britain on the road to exit the EU. Helped by current anti-islam sentiment rife within France, Le Pen is currently topping the polls along with bookies’ favourite Emmanuel Macron, to win the race.


    How can you protect your trading strategy?

    While the French Presidential race is an unpredictable one, our clients are advised to diversify their portfolio in order to limit any volatility on the Euro. If you are currently trading on the Euro, keep up-to-date with the latest news on the French elections by visiting this page.

     


  • The Eurozone’s economics would seem to suggest a stronger currency, but instead the continent’s political problems are weighing the single currency down.

    The recent news we’ve had on the European economy – particularly Germany – has been good. Growth is strong and improving – the EU purchasing managers’ index continued to rise in February to the highest level since the Greek debt crisis.



    The EU has finally come out of deflation. Unemployment is still high, but falling. An agreement on Greek debt seems…well, if not likely, at least possible.



    Overall, the EU economic data has been surprising on the upside since October, and more so than in the US, except for a brief period earlier this month.



    So why is EUR/USD falling? In a word: politics. The net sum of all the details can be seen in the spread between US and German 2-year bonds. Despite the improving economy & inflation picture in the EU, this spread is now the widest it’s been in 17 years. And that’s putting downward pressure on the euro.



    The reason for the widening spread, at least on the Eurozone side, isn’t because of economics, as we’ve seen. It’s because of Eurozone politics, which has caused a “flight to safety” into German bonds. Consider the following:

    • Close race in the French election France is holding a presidential election in April and May. For a long time it was assumed that the Eurosceptic National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen, would probably come in second in the first round, but then would be soundly defeated in the second round. Now however her odds seem to be improving as the other candidates are all facing their own problems. The possibility of an NF victory is affecting financial market sentiment towards France.
    • Eurosceptics gaining in Italy It’s not only France where the Eurosceptic party is gaining. In Italy, former PM Renzi resigned as head of the governing Democratic Party (DP) as the party tries to counter the growing popularity of the 5 Star Movement, which wants Italians to hold an “Ixet” vote. The two parties are about even in the polls nowadays. The country is being run by a caretaker administration; fresh parliamentary elections may be held this year, which would give the 5 Star Movement a chance to take power.
    • Netherlands election as well The indications are that the anti-EU Party for Freedom (PVV) is headed for the largest number of seats in the 15 March Parliamentary elections. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to form a government, as the main parties have vowed not to enter into a coalition with them. But a wave of new parties entering Dutch politics could upset that calculation. In any case, if the PVV do become the lead party, it may make their brand of politics seem more mainstream throughout Europe as the Netherlands is a founding member of the EU.
    • Greece…again (or still?) The Eurogroup of Eurozone finance ministers Monday met to discuss Greece’s debt problems. Apparently they made enough progress to send officials back to Athens for more negotiations. The Greek government has agreed to examine measures to cut its deficit, which could give the IMF the confidence it needs to continue contributing to the country’s bailout. Nonetheless, the situation is likely to hit the headlines again in July, when a major debt repayment comes due.
    • Merkel no more? Finally, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been described as the “indispensable European” for her leadership of the Continent over the last decade. Nonetheless, it looks like she might not be the “indispensable German.” Her counterpart in the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Martin Schulz, is gaining on her in the polls. The thought that this well-known and experienced politician – effectively, the leader of the West -- might be pushed out of office in the federal elections in September causes investors sleepless nights even if Schulz is a similarly resolute supporter of the EU.

    The result is that even though the overall EU economy is doing better than it has been in some time, the euro is starting to have a risk premium attached to it. This risk premium is likely to last to some degree at least until the Germans elections are over in the fall. Even then, the results of the elections may continue to tinge the outlook for the single currency.

    Of course by then Britain will have triggered Article 50 and the FX markets will have something new to worry about, not to mention any missteps by the Trump administration during the coming months. And what’s going to happen with North Korea now that China has started to turn the screws on them…and how might that affect the yen? There’s lots else that can happen over the intervening months.


  • I’d like to discuss my general expectations for what’s likely to happen in the FX markets this year. Much depends on how the Trump presidency and the Chinese economy work out. In general, I expect the dollar to continue to gain and for the yen and pound to weaken further.


    The dollar

    We’ve seen the dollar soar after the presidential election as market participants expect the incoming Trump administration to cut taxes and boost infrastructure spending. Alas, those expectations ignore the way the US government actually works: the president submits a budget but Congress has to pass it. The Republican Party has been willing to pass tax cuts but is generally less enthusiastic about increased spending. In fact, the current plan among Congressional Republicans is to shrink the government’s budget, not expand it. The gap between what Trump is looking for and what Congress is planning currently totals many trillions of dollars. The wrangling over US fiscal policy is likely to be the main risk to the dollar in 2017.

    Nevertheless, I still expect the dollar to strengthen further. There’s likely to be some fiscal boost, if not everything that Trump hopes for. Moreover, in December the Fed boosted its interest rate forecasts without even assuming a more expansive fiscal policy. Thus the monetary policy divergence that’s kept the dollar rising for several years now is likely to continue into 2017, albeit with perhaps more volatility as US politics weighs on the outlook.


    The yen

    The outlook for the yen is to a large degree the mirror image of that for the dollar. Not only has the Bank of Japan pushed short-term rates into negative territory, but it’s also capped long-term 10-year rates at zero. So even if rising US Treasury yields exert an upward pull on long rates elsewhere in the world, they won’t have the same impact on Japan. The widening yield gap between Japan and the rest of the world should keep the yen on a depreciating trend during 2016. On top of that, the Trump administration’s focus on countries that run significant trade surpluses with the US is likely to be to Japan’s detriment, as it runs the fourth-largest surplus of any single country.


    The euro

    The outlook for the euro is particularly clouded. I expect the currency to be weak in the beginning of the year as the market worries about political risk. Elections in the Netherlands in March and France in April and May are likely to keep the specter of euro disintegration haunting the market. In addition, the Italian banking crisis is another centrifugal force for the currency union to deal with.

    However, I expect the elections to pass without much lasting impact and the pro-EU establishment parties to continue to govern. In particular, I don’t expect the National Front to come to power in France. That should mean less political tension in the Eurozone after May, just in time for people to start worrying about Britain again.


    The pound

    After plunging in the wake of the Brexit vote, the pound has had a respite recently as the British economy has proven more resilient than the pundits expected. Moreover, Britain has benefited through the contrast with Europe: the challenges Britain faces are now well known, while the impact of politics on Europe is more difficult to assess. That’s caused some selling of EUR/GBP. But by the late spring, concerns about European politics should be waning just as the wrangling between Britain and the EU over Brexit begins in earnest. At that point, the full impact of this historic move is likely to hit the markets and the pound is likely to suffer another leg down, in my view.


    The commodity currencies: AUD, NZD, CAD

    The outlook for AUD and NZD is tied to China, and the outlook for China isn’t that great, in my humble opinion. The Chinese government has been using every monetary and fiscal technique in the book to boost growth, but 2017 is likely to be the year that the book ends and the economy has to face reality. Moreover, Trump’s plans for revamping the global trade system are aimed squarely at China, which will compound an already difficult situation.

    AUD is likely to be the main victim of slower Chinese growth. China takes 32% of the country’s exports and developing Asia overall takes 48%. A slowdown in China’s growth, particularly in its property sector, will hit Australia’s commodity exports. Moreover, the global supply of iron ore is set to increase (and the price fall) as new mines in other countries start producing.

    NZD is less vulnerable to a Chinese slowdown than AUD is. China only takes 18% of the country’s exports (Australia takes 17%, the US takes 12%) and most of those exports are agricultural products, not building materials. If the economy slows, people might not buy a new house but they will still have to eat. Moreover, milk prices have been rising recently, in contrast to iron ore & coal.

    CAD is vulnerable to a downturn in oil prices, but the correlation seems to be waning recently. On the other hand, unlike AUD, Canada is leveraged to an accelerating economy: 73% of Canadian exports go to the US, which I expect will continue to enjoy fairly robust growth in 2017. And the Trump administration has said that they don’t have a problem with Canada’s trade patterns, so NAFTA renegotiation is not a significant threat. If the USD continues to rally because of a strong US economy, Canada should be a major beneficiary. That ought to help the CAD outperform the other commodity currencies.


  • It’s that time of year again when I do my favorite column, in which I ask: how did the FX experts perform last year? I’m going to look at the “market consensus” forecast for currencies at the beginning of 2016 to see what value, if any, the FX forecasting community added to our sum of worldly knowledge.

    The answer this year is actually good: the pundits did pretty well in forecasting the dollar in 2016. Other currencies though…not so well.

    For “market consensus,” I’m using the Bloomberg forecasts at the beginning of the year. Bloomberg collects forecasts for the major currencies from economists at the major banks and professional forecasters. It then takes the median of these forecasts and publishes that as the “market consensus.”

    The simplest way to measure the performance is just to look at the direction: did the currency go up or down vs the dollar as forecast? Looking at 31 major currencies, in 2015 the market consensus got the direction right only 55% of the time, or little better than a coin toss. This year though, the pundit community did substantially better: they got 20 right, or 65%.

    The forecasts were pretty accurate, too. Using the absolute value of the discrepancies between the forecast change and the actual change, the median forecast was only 3.4% off the actual turnout (average was 6.2%).

    The graph shows the forecasts on the Y axis and the actual returns on the X axis. A correct forecast would lie on the yellow line. A currency above the line did worse than expected; one below the line, better.



    As a control, at the beginning of the year I also used Excel’s RANDOM() function to forecast the direction. I just generated “up” or “down” calls randomly, not the actual rate. Alas, my super-duper quantitative forecasting technique, which I’ve named Gittler’s Unbiased Electronic Simulation Scorecard, or GUESS, only got 17 right or 55% -- about what you’d expect from a random program and this year not as good as the experts.

    What were the big outliers? Several of them had to do with political surprises. The pound was forecast to rise, but needless to say it plunged – the vote for Brexit was a surprise. Same with MXN, which plummeted because of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the US election. TRY weakened far more than forecast following the coup in Turkey.

    On the other hand, a number of the commodity currencies performed unexpectedly well, most notably BRL. It was forecast to fall by 5.6%, but in the event it rose by 22%! Adding on the high level of short-term rates in Brazil, anyone with a short position in BRL would’ve suffered grievously. The ZAR was expected to remain pretty steady, but actually rose 12.6%. The experts were bullish on RUB but not bullish enough. Finally, NZD was forecast to decline, but the turnaround in milk prices towards the end of the year resulted in a gain.

    Among the G10, the yen was forecast to decline by 3.8% but wound up rising 2.8%; not that big a difference, but an important one in such a key currency. On the other hand, the euro forecast was pretty much spot on: it was forecast to fall 1.5% and in the event fell 3.2%. Not bad!

    But before you start believing what everyone on CNBC says, note that we are only talking about the forecasts against the dollar. The market expected the dollar to be up, and got it right. But what about all the other cross-currency forecasts embedded in these forecasts? We can get an idea of how well the pundits did outside of the dollar by looking at the forecasts against the euro. Here, the record isn’t so great. In fact, it’s pretty bad. In this case, the experts only got the direction right 11 out of 31 times or 36% -- far worse than tossing a coin. My extraordinarily sophisticated GUESS methodology on the other hand got 58% right – almost tradable!



    I do this exercise annually for two reasons. One, I think it’s valuable to look at how the experts did to remind us not to believe uncritically everything we hear or read. Yes, some very smart people do spend a lot of time thinking about currencies and analyzing the world economy and it’s well worth hearing what they have to say. They may well think of things that had escaped us and provide some valuable insights. But just because they’re smart and knowledgeable doesn’t mean they’re always right. Unexpected and inherently unpredictable events – so-called “black swans” – can and do occur. Sometimes things just don’t go as expected. And just because events flow logically in retrospect doesn’t mean that they can be reliably forecast in advance.

    This shouldn’t get us discouraged, though. The second reason I do this is to demonstrate that the small investor actually has a fighting chance against the experts: they can and do get it wrong sometimes, too. Nobody has a monopoly on wisdom.







  • Donald Trump won a stunning upset victory in the US Presidential election. The Republican Party also retained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, so that gives them a clean sweep of the US government.

    The market reaction was pretty much as was anticipated: a swift risk-off reaction. The only surprise was that markets calmed down so quickly. One reason may have been because of ECB promises to intervene if necessary. Another reason we will discuss in a moment.

    The election has serious repercussions not only for the US economy, but for the global economy as well. Nineteen Nobel Prize winners in Economics recently wrote an open letter to US voters. They warned that Trump “offers an incoherent economic agenda. His reckless threats to start trade wars…his trillions of dollars of unfunded tax cuts, his casual suggestion that the United States could threaten default on its debt…each of these proposals could jeopardize the foundations of American prosperity and the global economy.”

    So the immediate result of his election is uncertainty. And the VIX index did indeed go shooting up initially, although it’s since come back down

    The other reason why markets may have calmed down despite the apocalyptic tone ahead of the election is because investors are considering not what Trump intends to do, but more importantly, what he can do. The fact is that many of his positions, such as opposition to free trade, go against mainstream Republican positions. He will have little if any support in pushing this agenda. Virtually none of the Republican members of Congress openly supported him during the election, which is quite remarkable. He’s therefore likely to encounter strong opposition from his own party as well as the Democrats in getting the more radical aspects of his policy through Congress. This is the US system of checks and balances at work.

    Meanwhile, the increase in uncertainty and the sharp decline in the stock market makes a December rate hike less likely. That’s going to be negative for the dollar in the short term, but may help support stock markets.

    Investors will be waiting to see who Trump appoints to key positions, such as Treasury Secretary and Secretary of State. They will also want Fed Chair Yellen to confirm that she intends to serve out her term, which runs until January 31, 2024

    While the dollar may be weakening in general, several emerging market currencies could be pushed higher over the coming months. Trump has expressed his determination to fight back against what he alleges is currency manipulation to gain an unfair advantage in trade. China’s FX policy in particular is likely to come under attack, even though China has been intervening to support its currency recently, not weaken it. That could prove positive for other Asian currencies but negative for their stock markets.

    In the longer term though, while the Trump victory isn’t good for the dollar, it’s not good for the euro either. The Brexit vote and now this are likely to embolden the anti-Europe, anti-Euro forces in Europe. They make it more likely that the Italians will vote “no” in their referendum in December and may improve Le Pen’s chances in the French Presidential election in April. So while the US election is negative for the dollar short term, it’s even more negative long-term for the euro, I’d say, because Europe overall has more economic and political problems than the US does.

    One other question: what does this mean for oil? Trump and the Republicans strongly opposed the deal with Iran that lifted US sanctions on the country. It could be that they try to renegotiate that deal or even just abrogate it. That could hurt Iran’s ability to sell oil and probably send oil prices higher. I think though that given the multilateral nature of the agreement, which included China, Russia and the European countries as well, it would be hard for the US to pull out now.


  • Investors may be wondering what is likely to happen in the financial markets after the US Presidential election. We know roughly what’s likely to happen, because we saw some natural experiments recently.

    For example, during the first debate between Clinton and Trump, observers sensed that Clinton was getting the better of Trump. As that happened, there was a big switch to risk-on: stocks gained, while the safe-haven assets – gold and JPY – fell. MXN was the biggest mover. Mexico has been a particular target of Trump’s, with his threat to dismantle the NAFTA agreement, throw out Mexican immigrants and build a wall between Mexico and the US. So the MXN has been the main bellwether of the election, and it rose sharply.



    Clinton has positioned herself as the continuation of President Obama’s legacy. In that respect, much less will change immediately if she becomes President. Furthermore, as we’ve seen, the US stock market is likely to rally if she wins. No immediate disruption to the economy and a higher stock market should allow the Fed to go ahead and raise interest rates in December. In that case, the dollar is likely to go up overall, too. The exceptions might be vs MXN, as I said, and CAD, which is also at risk from a Trump presidency and could be expected to gain somewhat.

    A “risk on” environment, higher dollar and Fed tightening would probably be bad for gold. But global stock markets can be expected to rally, particularly EM stocks, since the risk of a trade war would be averted.

    Similar trends are visible over the longer term. As this graph from the Iowa Electronic Market, a market for betting on the outcome of the election, shows, Trump’s popularity (the red line) bottomed out on Oct. 23rd. It then started to rise sharply.



    The US stock market peaked on the 24th, then started declining as Trump’s popularity rose. Global stocks were dragged down with US stocks. On Oct. 28th, the FBI announced that it was investigating more of Clinton’s emails, which gave a big boost to Trump again, and stocks and the dollar continued to fall, while gold rose (gold is inverted in this graph).

    But then on Sunday the 6th, the FBI announced that there was nothing new in the emails, and Trump’s chances of winning suddenly fell back. With that, stocks and the dollar rose, while gold fell.



    So just as the debate showed a big “risk on” shift when it looked like Clinton was more likely to win, the evidence of recent days is that if Trump wins, market sentiment will shift strongly to “risk off.” Gold and JPY are likely to benefit the most, while stocks may decline globally.

    Trump’s main policy focus has been on trade. Mexico would be his first target, but Canada would be affected as well, as so much of its exports go to the US. Moreover, all emerging market countries that export to the US would be vulnerable, such as China, Korea, and Singapore. We could expect MXN, CAD and the currencies of other countries that export to the US – plus commodity exporters in general -- to fall in case of a “risk off” trade.

    The impact of a Trump victory on the dollar overall is hard to determine, though. On the one hand, if he caused the US stock market to fall and generated uncertainty about US economic policy, then the Fed would probably delay hiking rates in December, much like the Bank of England cut rates after the Brexit vote. That could weaken the dollar.

    Furthermore, historically trade wars have been bad for the dollar, and the market might start discounting that. And most economists think Trump’s economic policies would be damaging for the US economy, which makes it hard to see why the USD should rally.

    BUT…we saw back in 2008 how even when the US was the source of a global meltdown, the US bond market and the US dollar were still the ultimate safe-havens and money flowed into the US. The dollar strengthened despite the fact that the collapse of the US housing market caused the global financial crisis. That might happen this time, too. Except of course the picture is complicated by Trump’s threat to renegotiate the national debt, which means Treasuries might not be considered as safe as they were before.

    In short, a Clinton victory would probably mean a rally in risky assets, such as stocks, commodities, USD, MXN and CAD, and a bear market in safe-haven assets, such as gold, silver, JPY and to a lesser extent CHF. A Trump victory would probably mean the reverse. The implications for the dollar overall are hard to predict in case of a Trump victory, however. It’s likely to gain vs EM currencies, but its performance against the G10 is uncertain.

    Probably the cleanest way to position for your expected result is either through MXN/JPY or gold.


  • There were two major changes in the outlook for the pound Thursday. First, the UK High Court ruled against the government on Brexit. It said that Parliament had to have a chance to vote on the Article 50 declaration. The UK Supreme Court will hear the case again in early December. Assuming that they agree, then it’s likely that there will be a general election next year before a new parliament votes on the issue. That means Article 50 probably won’t be triggered by next March as planned. More months of uncertainty but at the same time, more time within the EU and therefore less disruption to the UK economy. That should be good for the pound.

    As for the vote, it’s unlikely that Parliament would decide to block Brexit entirely. Instead, they will probably try to ensure that Britain stays inside the Single Market. In other words, a “soft Brexit,” which would also tend to be better for the pound.

    Then the Bank of England came in with a more hawkish than expected policy. They unanimously decided to keep rates unchanged, but that wasn’t the main thing at all. Whereas before they had said they expected to cut rates again, now they say rates could go either way. They raised their 2017 forecast for inflation to 2.7%, far above the 2% target, and said there’s a limit to how much of an overshoot they’ll tolerate. So this is very positive for the pound as well.

    The weekly Commitment of Traders’ report shows that investors are still holding nearly record short positions in the pound. Following this news, I expect to see further short-covering push the pound back up.


  • Incredible volatility overnight! For no apparent reason, GBP just suddenly collapsed as computer-generated sell orders flooded the market. But just as the currency collapsed for no perceptible reason, it quickly rebounded for no reason either. It went from down an incredible 6.1% in a couple of minutes to down 1.7% in an hour, which still a pretty sharp move when you consider that there was no real reason. (Cable went from $1.2610 to $1.1841 on Bloomberg, another site recorded a low of $1.1378. It recovered back to around $1.2450 within an hour.)

    The collapse demonstrates the dangers of algorithmic trading, when computers trade directly with each other at nanosecond speed. It can be particularly dangerous during times of low liquidity for a currency pair. That was the case with sterling today during the Asian trading day.

    Such events are becoming more frequent in financial markets as regulators require banks to back their operations with more capital. With higher capital requirements, risk-taking appetite and the ability of market participants to take large positions diminishes at the same time as more and more trading is being done by computers without human intervention. There was a similar “flash crash” in ZAR recently as well.


  • There was some big news out overnight: OPEC agreed on a production cut! This is the first time in eight years they’ve agreed to something like that. Expectations for the informal meeting that took place yesterday were quite low, so oil prices shot up over 5% on the news.



    The group agreed to restrict its total output to 32.5mn-33mn b/d. The smaller number would be a cut of about 750k b/d from what OPEC said it pumped in August.

    Now, this isn’t all that it seems. First off, they didn’t decide on individual country quotas. Who will cut production by how much? That’s the hard part. That will be decided at the Nov. 30th meeting.

    Secondly, Iran was exempted from the deal. Iran is currently pumping around 3.68mn b/d, which is about 11% of total OPEC output. Since Iran has said that it wants to increase production back up to its pre-sanction level as a percent of total OPEC output, even if we estimate a 13% market share for Iran, which is on the low side, and OPEC cuts production to the low end of its range, that would mean Iran would boost its production by at least 545k b/d. That alone would wipe out most of the supposed cuts.



    Furthermore, OPEC was pumping around that much oil from March to June. It’s not a major cut in production at all.



    And when it was pumping that much oil, Brent averaged $45/bbl, which is pretty much what it averaged before the meeting. So it’s not clear this will do much to shore up prices, especially if US producers jump in and increase their production in response.



    Nonetheless, the news is bullish for oil in that it signals a new approach by Saudi Arabia, which up to now had been intent on maximizing market share at the expense of price. So it could help to boost prices over the longer term. We’ll just have to see how OPEC and particularly Saudi Arabian policy develops. We’ll have to see how things go at the Nov. 30th meeting.

    Personally, I think the price of oil is capped, because if OPEC restricts production and pushes prices up, US producers will just respond by increasing their production and push prices back down. So overall output won’t be restricted at all and prices will be unable to rise in a sustained fashion, in my view. However, there may be plenty of opportunity for volatility.



  • Last night was the first of three US presidential debates. With the polls so close – Clinton leads by less than 2 percentage points -- the debates have the potential to sway the undecided voters and tip the election either way.



    The market clearly thought that Clinton won the debate. As the graph shows, both the stock market futures and the Mexican peso took off shortly after the debate started at 01:00 GMT. The Mexican peso is seen as a bellwether for Trump’s chances of winning the Presidency, because he has threatened not only to build a wall between the US and Mexico, but also to rip up the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, which has done a lot to promote manufacturing in Mexico.



    The debate may have convinced some people who were undecided, but it looks like it didn’t manage to change many people’s views. For example, the readers of the right-wing Drudge Report web site overwhelmingly thought that Trump won.



    Similarly, the readers of Fortune Magazine, a business publication with a generally Republican readership, gave Trump a small win even though the magazine’s own writers gave the debate to Clinton. Fortune said, "the Democratic nominee presented as composed and commanding, ticking through her policy prescriptions while landing a series of devastating blows on Donald Trump’s record and readiness. A fidgety Trump meanwhile tried repeatedly to ruffle her with interruptions while riffing his way through his own answers, but struggled on both counts."



    But a more scientific poll by CNN/ORC, which assembled a group of voters more representative of the US voting population, showed 62% of viewers thought Clinton had won while only 27% thought Trump did.



    That doesn’t mean Clinton now has the election sewed up. Four year ago, polls showed Mitt Romney won his first debate against Barack Obama by about the same margin, and we all know how that election turned out.

    What these polls show to me is the power of confirmation bias. That’s the scientific way of saying that people hear what they want to hear. People who support Trump naturally found his arguments & style more convincing, while people who support Clinton naturally preferred her performance.

    The question is what the undecided people thought. With the race so close, the undecided people could tip it either way. In that respect, the debate was a success for Clinton: the CNN/ORC poll showed that 34% of the respondents said they were more likely to vote for her after watching the debate, whereas only 18% were more likely to vote for Trump. (47% said it had no effect; these were probably people who were already decided.)

    What the market thought was clear: the market thought Clinton won. That’s considered to be good for stocks, good for the dollar, good for risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and SEK.

    The reason is that investors like stability and dislike uncertainty. Whether you agree with her ideas or not, Clinton represents continuity. Although many of her views and policy goals are different than those of President Obama, both she and he are selling her candidacy as a way to build on the successes of the Obama presidency. In that respect, she represents continuity.

    Also, investors no doubt remember how well the dollar did when her husband was in office. Once Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen was replaced by Robert Rubin, the administration’s mantra became “a strong dollar is in the best interest of the US” and the dollar enjoyed a multi-year rally under the first President Clinton.



    Trump on the other hand represents change, at least insofar as he would be a change from the incumbent. He is also known to have almost violently different views on trade than anyone who’s occupied that office for the last several decades. There’s been a free-trade consensus among policy makers of both parties for quite some time, but he’s pledged to rip up almost all the country’s trade agreements if he gets into office.

    When President Bush imposed tariffs on Chinese steel back in 2002, the move was enormously detrimental to the dollar. Imagine what would happen to the poor dollar if Trump made good his promises to rip up NAFTA and pull the US out of the World Trade Organization!



  • We had the long-awaited FOMC meeting last night. As expected, the Fed did not hike rates, but it did keep the door open for a rate hie in December.

    They said that “the case for an immediate increase in the federal funds rate is stronger” than it was when they last met in July, as the near-term risks to their outlook are now “roughly balanced.” But they decided in any event “to wait for further evidence.”

    Chair Yellen explained that slack in the labor market is being taken up somewhat more slowly than in previous years. What that means is that even though the number of new jobs each month is pretty strong, as shown by the steady rise in the nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate is no longer falling – it was the same 4.9% in August as it was in January.



    And broader measures of unemployment, such as people who are working part-time but would rather work full time, have flattened out, too. The Committee wants to let the unemployment rate get below 4.8%, which is what they estimate to be the long-term equilibrium level of unemployment in the US.



    It’s curious that Yellen spent a lot more time talking about employment than she did about inflation, which is consistently running well below their forecasts. That suggests to me that they are largely ignoring the inflation picture and instead looking to raise rates as soon as the employment situation makes it politically possible.



    Also she explained that since monetary policy is “only modestly accommodative,” if inflation did start to accelerate they wouldn’t have to raise rates very quickly or very far to shift to a tighter policy.

    The divergence of views among FOMC members is increasing. Three of the 12 voters dissented, because they wanted to hike rates at this meeting. At the same time, the dot plot shows that there are two people who see no need for a rate hike at all this year. So the committee is becoming more polarized.

    Nonetheless, the message from the meeting was clear: even though they still want to hike, they see the future path of rates being shallower than it was before. You can see here how the average forecast for rates at the end of each year came down compared to what they thought in July. The blue line represents what the market is expecting, which is still much lower than what the FOMC expects.



    The median FOMC member is now looking for only 2 rate hikes next year instead of 3 previously. (That’s assuming they have one hike this year.)



    And they continue to lower their estimate of the long-term equilibrium level of rates.



    While they revised down their interest rate forecasts, there were really no significant revisions to their economic forecasts. So they must simply believe that the appropriate level of interest rates is getting lower for any given level of economic activity. Over the longer term, that could be negative for the dollar – except that every major central bank probably thinks the same way.

    Unusually, the implied interest rate on the fed funds rate futures actually moved up slightly after the meeting – previously, the FOMC has revised down its forecasts but the market has moved down its forecasts too each time. The market may think Fed is reaching the limit of its dovishness. That’s why I think although the immediate impact of the meeting was negative for the dollar, I think this may represent the bottom or near the bottom for the US currency. I expect the market will start to give more credence to the Fed’s tightening intentions from here and that is likely to support the US currency going forward.


  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) today surprised the markets with yet another tweak of their monetary policy. As expected, it focused on the shape of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve, but it contained enough new and unexpected aspects to provide several surprises.

    First, a short history of BoJ policy. They introduced “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing”, or QQE, in April 2013. When that didn’t work, they introduced “QQE with Negative Interest Rates” in January of this year. Now that they see negative interest rates actually harm the economy, they’ve switched to “QQE with Yield Curve Control.”

    There are two major components of this new program:

    • Yield curve control: At the short end of the yield curve, BoJ has kept the benchmark rate for part of bank reserves unchanged at -0.1%.

      At the long end, will target 10-year Japanese Govt Bond (JGB) yields at around current levels of 0%. They’ll buy bonds if yields start to move up, or they will lend money for up to 10 years at a fixed rate if yields start to move much lower. I’ve never heard of anything like that before. Their longest operations up to now were 1 year. The ECB’s long-term refinancing operations are 3 years.

      Anchoring the 10-year yield at 0% has two effects. First off, they’re guaranteeing that if the banks (or anyone else) buy 10-year bonds at this level, they won’t lose money. Secondly, by preventing 10-year yields from going below zero, the yields of longer-term bonds should stay positive. That will help the profitability of insurance companies and pension funds, which need longer-term assets to match their long-term liabilities.

      In any case, cutting the interest rate on bank reserves further into negative territory would have hurt bank profits, so this is better than the alternative, as far as the banks are concerned.

    • Inflation-overshooting commitment: This is even more radical, in my view. Before, they were pledging to get inflation back up to 2% by a certain time. They never met that target, so they just kept pushing it out further and further. Now they’ve scrapped the target date and instead pledged to keep expand the monetary base until inflation is stable above the 2% target. In other words, they’ve committed to overshoot their inflation target. This is the only central bank in the world (that I know of) that has taken such a radical step.

    They also said they will cut interest rates further if necessary

    The moves seem aimed at reducing the harmful side effects from the negative rate policy, which was hurting bank profitability and could make them less willing to lend



    Japanese stocks rose as banks & insurers are seen as benefiting from the moves. That’s the white line in this graph. USD/JPY, the yellow line, moved up almost in lockstep with the stock market. That seems to have been the path by which the BoJ’s moves affected the currency market.

    But the graph shows, once the Tokyo stock market closed, the yen began strengthening again. That’s because these moves won’t directly impact the currency. It’s an indirect impact: by making banks and insurance companies more profitable, they won’t need to hedge their overseas investments so much and they may be more willing to take risks. But on the other hand, by making Japanese bonds more attractive, the BoJ could be discouraging them from investing abroad. So the impact on the currency isn’t that clear.



    Meanwhile, the JGB yield curve steepened somewhat as 10-year yields, which had been below zero, moved up to around zero %. Rates at the longer end moved up as well, which may have been as much the BoJ’s intention as anything else.

    All told, I believe that the BoJ’s pledge to keep policy loose not only until they achieve their inflation target but until they overshoot their target on a sustainable level is the most radical thing I’ve heard from a central bank. I think in the long term, that should work to weaken the yen, because it promises that they will just keep trying and trying. But in the short term, I’d say a lot depends on what the Fed decides tonight.


  • Today I’d like to discuss what impact the dramatic and largely unexpected Brexit vote will have on the world. But before I do, I’d like to discuss an event that happened almost 20 years ago: the Russian bond market default. The connection may not be immediately relevant, but I think it explains a good deal of why we are now entering into one of the most dangerous periods I’ve seen for the markets.

    You may remember that Russia defaulted on its bonds back in 1998. At that time, one of the favorite investments for hedge fund was to borrow money in the low-interest-rate yen and invest it in high-yielding Russian bonds. When the Russian bond market collapsed and their assets suddenly plunged in value, all these hedge funds rushed to close out their positions and repay their liabilities. The result was an enormous rally in the yen – up something like 4 yen a day every day for a week.

    The reason the Brexit vote reminded me of that event was this: it was completely understandable in retrospect, but completely unforeseen in advance. I don’t remember anyone warning that a collapse in Russian bonds would affect Japan. Yet it did, very much so. Now that we know why it did, we can see the cause and effect and we feel that we should have been able to forecast it. But certainly nobody did at the time.

    Now we are hearing a lot of predictions and forecasts for what will happen after Brexit. That’s only natural; we all have to make plans for the future, and so we all want to have an idea of what the future is going to be like. Unfortunately, it’s inherently unknowable. The one thing we can be certain about the future is that it’s unlikely to be the way anyone imagined. As Daniel Kahneman said in Thinking, Fast and Slow (a book that every investor should read – twice),

    …our tendency to construct and believe coherent narratives of the past makes it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability. Everything makes sense in hindsight…And we cannot suppress the powerful intuition that what makes sense in hindsight today was predictable yesterday. The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.i

    I’d like to list some of the effects we’ve already seen from the Brexit vote. The disintegration of the Conservative Party leadership might have been foreseeable, even though PM Cameron had pledged ahead of time not to resign, but the Labour Party too? Boris Johnson out of the running for PM? Perhaps the gating of the UK commercial property funds was foreseeable, but who predicted that Brexit would accelerate the collapse of Italian banks? (I’m not even sure what the connection there is myself – it seems to be based on the expectation that the ECB will have to keep rates lower for longer, and that’s a particularly difficult environment for the troubled Italian banks.)

    In fact, one of the consequences of the vote so far seems to be the absolute reverse of what everyone predicted. Most pundits – myself included, again – expected Brexit to be the first domino in a chain that would see voters in at least France and the Netherlands pushing for their own referendum. But so far the impact seems to be the exact opposite: voters in Spain strengthened the pro-European center-right party, while polls in Denmark, Finland and Sweden have shown increased support for staying in the EU. Perhaps people are seeing the problems that the UK is suddenly confronting by voting to leave and re-evaluating whether it’s worth it. Could it be that the ultimate impact of the Brexit vote could be greater Eurozone integration? Perhaps the Italian banking crisis will be the impetus. Seems hard to imagine, but not impossible.

    The impact isn’t just in Europe. For example, during the recent FOMC meeting, participants said they thought it would be “prudent” to wait for the result of the referendum “in order to assess the consequences of the vote for global financial market conditions and the U.S. economic outlook.” Now that they know the result, how much longer will they wait? Brexit has sent the yen up sharply and thereby destabilized Japanese markets. Investment decisions on hold globally, economic activity lower, oil prices fall…what will be the impact on the Middle East?

    In short, the implications of this event for investments are both global and unknowable. Money is flowing out of Britain (or it would, if the property funds would allow redemptions); where will it go to? If people sell their Belgravia flat, will they buy one in Vancouver instead? If they bail out of gilts, will we see the US long bond trade with a 1-handle, and US mortgage rates fall further? Will my house in Phoenix increase in value because of discontent in Sunderland?

    Nonetheless, we have to make decisions based on our incomplete knowledge. Even doing nothing, even keeping our money in cash, is a decision. Cash in which currency?

    We know that uncertainty has increased and that it’s likely to last some time. In that context, the typical trades in the FX market are to buy dollars; buy the safe-haven JPY and CHF; and sell the main currency affected, GBP. High-beta currencies such as AUD and SEK are also likely to be hit. Of course, these currencies have already moved a considerable amount. But just because they are cheap or expensive doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper or more expensive.

    The best plan at such times is to remember the wise words of Howard Marks, of Oaktree Capital: “You can’t predict. You can prepare.”

    i Kahneman attributes this idea to Nassim Taleb in The Black Swan, another essential investing book.


  • Fed and SNB lower their real interest rate forecasts: are we all turning Japanese?

    Four major central bank meetings in 24 hours and no change in policy at any of them. The Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu summed it up when he said, “By doing nothing, everything is done.”

    Yet as spectators at a soccer match well know, no score doesn’t mean no action. What emerged from two of these meetings was the conclusion that real interest rates – interest rates minus the rate of inflation -- would stay lower for longer than expected.

    In the US, the FOMC lowered its forecast for end-2018 interest rates by around 50 bps to 2.46% on average from 2.95% (2.38% from 3.00%, using the median). Yet the forecast for inflation was left unchanged for both 2017 and 2018. That means lower real interest rates. The Swiss National Bank reached the same place but from the other direction. It kept its rates the same while predicting a slightly higher inflation rate – make that, less deflation – for 2016 and a slightly higher inflation rate for 2017. That too means lower real rates.

    What was particularly significant for the Fed was the change in their forecast for the longer-run level of the Fed funds rate. Their median forecast for that fell 25 bps in March and another 25 bps this time as well. That’s a huge move, considering that this is their forecast for the long-run equilibrium level of rates – the rate over several economic cycles. It’s particularly significant given that there was no change in their forecast for the long-run rate of growth or inflation. They are now saying that for a given growth and inflation combination, interest rates will probably be lower than they were before. Note that their forecast of a future long-run Fed funds rate of 3% is only slightly more than half the actual long-run average, which is 5.73% (from 1954 to end-2007).


    The Fed’s downgrade of this longer-term rate coincides with an important break in the market’s expectations for inflation. Until recently, the market’s inflation expectations were closely correlated with the current price of oil. But in late April, the two started to diverge significantly, with inflation expectations headed lower even while oil prices headed higher. Perhaps the market thinks that higher oil prices are only temporary (as do I); perhaps they see energy prices having less impact on inflation over time. Whichever, this change in inflation expectations is worrisome for the Fed, as Chair Yellen admitted: “we can’t take the stability of longer-run inflation expectations for granted,” she said at the press conference.


    Note that this is also the week that 10-year German Bund yields went negative, suggesting that in Europe too, investors see little prospect of inflation any time soon. (Rates of course are also affected by the presence of a major non-profit-seeking buyer, namely the ECB.) We haven’t quite reached that point in either the US or the UK, however.


    Is Japan’s experience a harbinger of things to come? There, overnight rates have been 50 bps or less since 1995, yet inflation has only exceeded 1% when the government raised the consumption tax. It could be that we are going to see global conversion to the Japanese norm, at least among the advanced economies.


    What does this mean for currencies? In the near term, probably a weaker dollar as the “monetary policy divergence theme” fades even further from view. It is bullish for emerging market currencies as the reduced likelihood of any Fed tightening improves the outlook for those economies. It improves the outlook for carry trades; within the G10, that means NZD and AUD, the currencies with the highest interest rates, may benefit, while in EM, RUB, TRY and ZAR have the highest rates.

    I would recommend caution with carry trades right now and also with EM currencies in general. That’s because these trades don’t perform well when during a risk-off environment, and next Thursday is the Brexit vote – which could turn out to be a serious, serious risk-off event.

    Speaking of which, the statement following the Bank of England meeting today laid out the Monetary Policy Committee’s expectations for what would happen to sterling if the country votes to leave the EU. “On the evidence of the recent behaviour of the foreign exchange market, it appears increasingly likely that, were the UK to vote to leave the EU, sterling’s exchange rate would fall further, perhaps sharply,” the MPC predicted. “This would be consistent with changes to the fundamentals underpinning the exchange rate, including worsening terms of trade, lower productivity, and higher risk premia.” Note that by saying the fall would be “consistent with changes to the fundamentals,” they are in effect ruling out intervening in the FX market to counter any such decline. We could see some major volatility if the country votes Leave.

  • Oil prices were collapsing earlier this year, but they’ve since rebounded nearly 60% from their February lows. Is the price going to keep rising?

    Personally, I don’t think so. I think the price is likely to fall back down towards the recent lows, although probably not that low again.

    But in any case, I expect the oil price to remain quite volatile as economics, technology, geopolitics and finance combine to provide an unstable supply and demand picture for crude.

    Behind the recent rally has been a remarkable turnaround in speculative positions. So far this year, hedge funds and other investors have more than doubled their net long position in oil futures and options. It’s now approaching the record set in June 2014, when it looked like ISIS fighters might take over Iraq.

    As you can see, not only were investors accumulating long positions, but they also closed out over half of the record short positions that they held. It was this short-covering really that pushed oil prices up.

    read more

  • What to expect from the upcoming central bank meetings: ECB, BoJ, Fed

    Webinar held on 3 March on www.fxstreet.com The recording can be accessed at: https://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-central-bank-meetings-ecb-boj-fed-20160303/

    Hello everyone! This is Marshall Gittler, head of investment research here at FXPRIMUS.

    Today I’m going to be discussing the upcoming central bank meetings We’ve got three biggies in the next two weeks: the ECB on the 10th (Thursday), the Bank of Japan on the 15th (next Tuesday), and Fed on the 16th. In addition, the Bank of Canada and RBNZ both meet on Wednesday, March 9th (Thursday in NZ). There’s also going to be a Bank of England meeting on March 17th, but that is likely to have relatively little market impact now that all the Monetary Policy Committee members are voting the same way.

    So there’s going to be a lot of central bank activity in the near future. And as we all know, the markets are being totally dominated by the central banks nowadays.

    So what can we expect from these meetings? Well, let’s first see what the general world conditions are.

    The main things to notice are:

    • Growth in most countries is stagnant at best, slowing at worst
    • EM countries in particular are slowing sharply
    • Global trade is falling
    • Inflation is still well below target almost everywhere
    • Financial markets are volatile (although not as volatile as they were back in January)

    I’d like to take the fourth point, sluggish inflation. It’s true that inflation has picked up in many countries, but it’s still well below the central bank’s official target in most of them. We can see here that in the US, it’s moving back towards target, but the EU and Japan are nearly in deflation! So it’s hard to see how those two are going to hit their targets without further action. That’s why I think we might see further action from some central banks.



    But…how do lower interest rates help an economy? In theory, they should boost lending. But you can see here that bank lending hasn’t picked up very much outside the US even though interest rates are at record low levels. That’s because companies don’t borrow just because money is cheap, they borrow it because they think they can invest that money profitably. Why should they bother building a new factory if they don’t think they can make money with it? This is the other problem that central banks face: lowering interest rates hasn’t worked in one of the main ways it’s supposed to.



    So if lowering interest rates doesn’t encourage borrowing, what does it to? It weakens the exchange rate. That’s one way that central banks can help their economies out. But of course a country’s exchange rate will fall only if other countries don’t lower their rates too. If everyone lowers their interest rates, then relative interest rates remain the same and nobody wins – they just wind up in the same situation but with everyone worse off.

    Furthermore, negative interest rates have started to have the opposite effect. You can see here in this graph of bank stocks relative to their home markets how bank stocks have underperformed the overall stock market recently. That’s because investors worry about negative interest rates eating into banks’ profits. That might force them to charge more for loans! So it may be that the interest rates tool is no longer as effective as it was.



    Now let’s discuss the central bank meetings in the order in which they’ll occur:

    The ECB is the one where expectations are the highest. At their last meeting, ECB President Draghi gave a big hint that they would increase their market assistance. He said that Eurozone inflation dynamics were weaker than expected that it may be “necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting in early March, when the new staff macroeconomic projections become available which will also cover the year 2018.”

    The point about the ECB staff’s economic forecasts is quite significant. The forecasts that they have now only go out to 2017. At their next meeting, the staff will make forecasts out to 2018. These are really important for the ECB. As you can see, the ECB is forecasting that growth will recover and that inflation will move back towards the target over the next two years. But if they revise down their inflation forecast for this year and next and forecast that it’ll take three years to get back to their target, they’ll have to take some further action.





    As you can see in the graplh below, inflation expectations – the blue line – haven’t been affected at all by the ECB’s actions, and instead have basically followed the oil price, the yellow line. And in fact recently inflation expectations have continued to fall even as oil prices have stabilized. So with oil remaining at extremely low levels, the ECB has to do something lest a deflationary mindset get established.



    Now, we all know that they can’t really do anything. For example, the Bank of Japan has kept its short-term rates at 50 bps or less for the last 20 years, yet they’re still struggling with deflation So I’m not sure that central banks have the tools to create inflation right now. But they can’t admit that. No central banker can stand up and say, “well, really we’re powerless to do anything about it.” The former BoJ Gov. Shirakawa effectively said that, and he was forced out of his job early to make way for Gov. Kuroda, who promised to do more.



    So the ECB will have to take some steps even if they don’t really think that the steps will make any difference. That’s because of the role that confidence plays in the markets.They have to appear confident even if they’re not.

    The question then isn’t whether they’ll do anything. The question is what they’re likely to do, and more importantly, whether it will be enough to impress the markets.

    For example, they did increase their stimulus in December. They lowered the deposit rate by 10 bps further into negative territory, and extended the length of time the bond purchases were scheduled to run by six months, as well as some other small measures. But Draghi had built up expectations so high ahead of that event that the small increase was a disappointment to the market, and this is what happened: EUR/USD jumped 4 cents in one day!



    So the key point is that this time, they know they’ll have to do something really big, or else the market will once again be disappointed. And a second disappointment after such strong suggestions in January would be really really disappointing for the market. It would send the euro up sharply and stock markets down sharply. And they can’t risk that. Financial conditions in the Eurozone have already been tightening over the last few months, whereas in the US they’re actually looser despite the fact that the Fed hiked rates in December.

    So what can they do? They need to make a big impression on the market. Just changing one thing probably wouldn’t be enough. That’s why I expect them to reveal several new measures. Among these, I’d expect to see the following:

    • A further cut in the deposit rate. They’ve lowered it by 10 bps increments each time, maybe they’ll try 15 bps this time.
    • The introduction of a tiered deposit rate, like in Japan. That will be necessary to prevent the negative interest rates from pinching bank profits.
    • Raising the monthly bond purchases
    • Extending the minimum duration of the bond purchases
    • More miscellaneous measures

    I don’t want to get into the question of whether these issues would be effective in boosting economic activity and raising inflation. That’s not what matters for us. The issue for the FX market is whether it’s enough to boost market confidence. I think these measures would demonstrate to the market that the ECB is seriously worried about the downside risks to inflation and to the economy and is going to take, as Mr. Draghi said on another subject, “whatever steps are necessary” to fight them. That should probably boost Eurozone stocks and weaken the euro, as happened when they first cut rates into negative territory.





    BANK OF JAPAN

    Now, the next meeting is the Bank of Japan the following week. It’s a lot harder to predict what they will do at that meeting. On the one hand, Japan’s inflation isn’t going anywhere. The BoJ even invented a new measure of inflation, one that excludes fresh foods, energy and the effect of tax hikes, in order to make it easier to meet its inflation goal, but that measure too turned down in January.



    To make matters worse, inflation expectations are falling. The % of people who expect inflation to be higher next year is falling – that’s the graph on the left – and market-based inflation expectation measures show that the market expects no inflation for the next five years. So there is reason for the BoJ to act again.



    On the other hand, we saw earlier how Japanese bank stocks basically collapsed following the move to negative interest rates. That’s the yellow line in this graph. Furthermore, the BoJ board only voted 5-4 in favor of going to negative rates. That’s a very close vote, which doesn’t inspire much confidence in such a radical move.

    One of the four people who voted against negative rates – Ms. Shirai – will be leaving the BoJ board on March 31st, and another, Mr. Ishida, will be leaving on June 29th. BoJ board members serve 5-year terms so both of them were appointed before Mr. Abe came into office. If I were Mr. Kuroda, I’d wait until Mr. Abe had replaced these folks with more sympathetic board members before taking action again, rather than risk having the vote go against me. So I think they’ll wait at least until April, after Ms. Shirai leaves, and probably until July before changing rates, unless something big happens. That would suggest the yen is likely to strengthen further after the upcoming BoJ meeting.

    After that, it’s a lot to do with the general global risk environment. I still believe that Japanese investors have more money to put offshore and that those capital flows are likely to weaken the yen further, but risk aversion may interfere.

    FED

    Finally, there’s the Fed meeting the next day. I don’t think anyone expects them to raise rates at this meeting. Nonetheless, I think the market is underestimating the likelihood of another rate rise.

    This graph shows the FOMC’s forecasts for the Fed funds rate over time, taken from the materials that they publish every quarter, vs the market expectations as derived from the Fed funds futures. As you can see, there’s a huge gap. The FOMC is assuming at least 3 more rate hikes this year, while the market is only pricing in about a 50-50 chance of even one more. (Note: the probability has increased somewhat since the webinar.) But does the Committee really need to hold off so much?



    They have a dual mandate: they have to aim for price stability, which they define as a 2% rise in the core personal consumption expenditure, and full employment, which they estimate to be a 4.9% unemployment rate. As you can see, they’re pretty close to reaching both those targets.





    So why didn’t they move in January? They explained that they are “closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.” Note that they said “global economic and financial developments,” not just “domestic economic and financial developments.” So apparently a lot depends on whether global growth recovers and markets around the world stabilize. You can see here from this graph of the implied volatility of various instruments that volatility is still pretty high, but it’s coming down. If that continues, I think they’ll still plan on hiking later this year.



    The important thing will be to see the dot plot. This is the dot plot from the December FOMC meeting. Each dot represents the forecasts of a member of the Committee for the Fed funds rate at the end of each year. You can see from this the distribution of forecasts on the Committee. This is where I got the average weighted forecast that I used in the earlier graph. I think if the Committee is still forecasting at least two rate hikes this year, the market will have to adjust its rate expectations upwards. That is likely to strengthen the dollar. If on the other hand the Committee capitulates to the market’s view and forecasts only one hike this year, then I think the dollar will weaken.



    In any event, many of the US economic indicators are starting to come in better than expected. The mood in the US is improving. Against this background, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some further downward revision to the Committee’s forecasts, but I don’t think they’re likely to change that much. I expect that the market will be surprised on this account and the dollar will strengthen after the FOMC meeting.



    This is Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at FXPRIMUS. Get more market insights on our education pages and turn your trading ideas into action with FXPRIMUS, The Safest Place To Trade.

  • Brexit – the question of whether the UK will leave the European Union – is on everyone’s mind nowadays, after UK PM David Cameron called a referendum for June 23rd. Will they or won’t they? That’s not necessarily the right question, at least not for now. The proper question for the FX market is, might they? And the answer to that one is a definite “maybe.” So long as it’s “maybe” and not “no,” I think the pound is likely to be under pressure.

    Fears of a Brexit have made the pound the worst performing major currency over the last week, even worse than the Argentinian Peso, the habitual resident in the FX basement. Of course, at some point it may mean revert – markets tend to overshoot in one direction then overshoot in the other – but I’m not sure it’s overshot to the downside quite yet.

    At the end of the day I don’t think the British public will vote to leave the EU, but the market has to price in the chance that they might, and if that chance increases, then the risk premium associated with British assets and with the pound should increase too. That means a weaker pound.

    The problem is that I don’t see things getting better rapidly on the Continent, and therefore I think the risk of higher poll numbers for the “out” vote may increase. In particular, the refugee issue is heating up again and is likely to get even warmer along with the weather as more people decide to leave their shattered homes. Immigration is one of the main concerns of those British who are dissatisfied with the EU. PM Cameron’s modest renegotiation of the UK’s status within the EU will probably fail to mollify these folks.

    We can take some lead from the Scottish referendum on independence that was held in September 2014. While in the end the vote went against independence, it was noticeable that support for leaving rose as time went on, while declared support for staying in fell. In the event the vote to stay in was higher than the polls had suggested, but so too was the vote for leaving, as the “I don’t knows” made up their minds. The latest polls show some 46% want to remain in and 38% want to leave, but that’s almost exactly where we were with the Scottish referendum four months before it took place (48% “no” vs 35% “yes”) and it tightened up considerably after that.


    Investors who want to take a position on the possibility that the UK leaves should do so by selling GBP/USD or, even better, GBP/JPY. That’s because if something with such wide-ranging and unpredictable implications does actually happen, the safe-haven JPY is likely to appreciate overall. It might also be worth considering buying gold in GBP terms, because gold too could benefit.

    On the other hand, I think EUR would also be negatively affected in case of a vote to exit, although obviously not as much as GBP. That’s because not only would a vote to leave the EU be a leap into the unknown for the UK, it would also be a leap into the unknown for the EU itself, too. All sorts of questions arise, such as what will the people in Catalonia or the Basque region do? How would this affect the chances of anti-EUR parties, such as the National Front in France? Etc. Looking at the difference between the 6M risk reversals (which now include the referendum period) and the 3M risk reversals (which don’t encompass that event), it’s clear that the GBP options market is already concerned about the referendum while the EUR options market isn’t. That suggests the issue could put downward pressure on the EUR over the coming months as investors begin to think through the impact of a Brexit vote on other currencies besides GBP.


  • The year started out pretty badly, with the S&P 500 index down nearly 11% at one point. But since then it’s recovered about 40% of its losses in just five business days. Are we seeing a return of risk-seeking?

    Certainly, many of the factors that were weighing on the market earlier in the year have stopped or even reversed. Foremost of these is China, where the authorities offered more measures to support the economy and boosted the currency. The fact that lending soared in January was also significant as it holds out the promise of a stable economy – although one wonders if prolonging a debt-fuelled expansion is really in the country’s best interest over the longer term. A slight rise in inflation there in January is also positive.

    Meanwhile, in Europe, ECB President Draghi has reassured the markets that the ECB will do more in March, and even Bank of England uber-hawk Ian McCafferty has turned into a dove. Recent comments by (most) Fed officials give the impression too that they’re in no rush to hike any time soon, either.

    The impact has already been felt in the bellwether commodity sector, where prices of many growth-sensitive commodities have risen slightly or at least stabilized after a prolonged period of declines. Brent for example is 25% off its recent lows, while copper is up 5.7% from the bottom.



    Against this background, FX traders may want to put on some carry trades, taking advantage of the low interest rates among the buyers of commodities and the higher interest rates among the sellers. Going long ZAR, MXN, NZD or AUD and financing it with the safe-haven JPY or CHF, or the low-interest-rate EUR would seem to be one way to take advantage of this trend, if you think it’s likely to persist.TRY has the highest deposit rates among the readily available currencies, but given the geopolitical problems surrounding Turkey, its currency is likely to be subject to other forces. RUB is a strong oil playthat also has high rates; market participants who expect that oil will even stabilize should consider that currency too.

  • The Bank of Japan:  Propping open Pandora’s box

     

    The Bank of Japan’s introduction of negative interest rates is one of the most significant events to hit the FX market recently. By taking this action, the BoJ has basically said that its bond-buying operations have reached their limit and they need to find other ways to support the economy. The likely channel is through the exchange rate:  by depressing interest rates across the yield curve and (one hopes) raising inflation, the BoJ is aiming to lower real interest rates. This won’t benefit companies that much, because they can already borrow at extraordinarily low rates, so the aim must be to push down the yen by making overseas investment more attractive and at the same time implicitly guaranteeing Japanese investors that the authorities will prevent the yen from strengthening.

    Looking away from the yen, how might this move affect other countries? There are two ways:  through trade and through policy. On the trade front, countries that compete with Japan are not likely to give up without a fight. I would expect to see other trading countries, such as South Korea, allow their currencies to weaken, too.

    The big question will be whether or how China responds. If China responds by letting its currency weaken too, then that could set off a repeat of the round of risk aversion that we saw last August. Note that China has changed its way of managing the CNY and is now managing it against a basket of currencies, rather than just against the dollar, so it may move to offset a weaker yen. On the other hand, the country’s exports to Japan are relatively low compared to its imports from Japan, so it may decide to let the move slide as a wash.

    The policy implications may be even more important. Simply put, now that two major central banks have instituted negative rates, the policy is no longer experimental but rather is a “standard policy tool.” Thus the BoJ has in effect validated it for other central banks. This had an immediate impact on the UK, where the market is now pricing in more of a chance of a cut this year. Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland, which all have negative rates now, may be emboldened to lower them further. It may also help ECB President Draghi to overcome opposition on the ECB Governing Council to lowering rates further into negative territory. (Note that the BoJ specifically said it would buy bonds at yields below its deposit rate, contrary to ECB policy.)

    The BoJ said it “will cut the interest rate further into negative territory if judged as necessary.” And if other central banks cut in response to Japan, and then it cuts again, and then they follow again…it looks like the currency war is in full swing. The loser of this war – and hence the strongest currency -- is likely to be the dollar, as the Fed will probably at least keep rates steady if not hike further.

  • Special report:  Today’s US nonfarm payrolls report for January

     

    1330 GMT:  US nonfarm payrolls (Jan)  Today will be spent waiting for the US nonfarm payrolls report, the big indicator of the month. Strong employment data should encourage the Fed to keep hiking while any weakness might convince them to stand pat for longer. The market is looking for a relatively robust rise in payrolls of 190k, but after the stronger-than-expected ADP report of 205k, some people may have upped their forecasts. That would be a bit below the recent trend (229k a month over the last six months) but that would be quite reasonable after the enormous December (292k) and October (307k) increases. The market will also pay attention to any revisions to those earlier strong figures.

     

     

    To be really supportive of the dollar, the figure would also have to show a rise in earnings and a rise in the participation rate, which are announced at the same time.

    The reason is, the Fed wants to see a healthy job market. One part of that is that demand for labor should be rising and therefore the cost of labor should be rising. This has been happening; the rate of growth in earnings has accelerated from an average of 2.0% yoy in 2014 to 2.2% in 2015, and it was 2.5% yoy in December. However, the market is forecasting that the rate of growth in average earnings fell back to 2.2% yoy in January. That could be a negative for the dollar.

     

     

    Another aspect of a healthy labor market should be more people coming off the unemployment rolls and into the work force. That would mean a continued rise in the participation rate. The participation rate hit a bottom of 62.4 in September and has since crept up to 62.6. That’s still low but at least the trend is upwards. No forecast is available for this indicator.

     

     

    The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 5.0%. Only an extreme NFP number would be likely to change that.

    It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the data. On one hand there could be some relief if the data is weak, as it would discourage the Fed from hiking again any time soon. That could help risk-sensitive assets, such as the AUD and stock markets. On the other hand, more weak US data just adds to the evidence that the Fed shouldn't have hiked in December in the first place! One expects that the dollar would weaken in case of a miss or strengthen in case of a beat.

    However, it’s not always like that. This graph shows how EUR/USD moved in the hour following the NFP the last six times that it missed its forecast. Curiously, the dollar strengthened three times and weakened three times.

     

     

    On the other hand, the dollar gained for at least the first 30 minutes when it beat expectations. So it seems to me that its movement has more to do with the market’s view on the dollar than with what the number is. In today’s case, the market seems to be negative about the dollar for the moment, so unless it’s a pretty strong beat, the dollar could move lower.

     

     

    13:30 - Canada – Unemployment rate and employment Change (Jan) At the same time, Canada releases its employment data for January as well. The market expects the unemployment rate to stay at 7.1% and for the economy to add 6k jobs, down from 22.8k in December. As the Canadian economy is increasingly affected by the weak oil price, there is a danger that unemployment may tick higher and job gains lower.

  • The Delphic Fed

     

    The Fed’s January statement has replaced “Forward Guidance” with Delphic commentary that investors can interpret in line with their own biases. Some market participants believed that the Committee was still hawkish, because they did not rule out another rate hike in March (hence the fall in stocks). At the same time, those so disposed could interpret several key changes in the statement as dovish (hence the fall in bond yields). It’s as if they are now taking lessons in market communication from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who once told a senator that “if you understand me, I must have misspoke.”

     

    They no longer say that they are “reasonably confident” that inflation will rise back to its target, but they did not say they think it won’t rise back to the target. They also removed the sentence about the risks to economic activity and the labor market being balanced, but they didn’t explain which way they do see the risks tipping. And they said they are “closely monitoring” global economic and financial developments, effectively a euphemism for China, oil and stock prices. “Closely monitoring” is a catchphrase for the Fed, much like the ECB saying it is “vigilant” the month before it takes some policy action. “Closely monitoring” means they’re worried about some issue that may affect policy, but it allows them to remain vague about what they intend to do about it. So at the end of the day investors are probably more confused than ever about the FOMC’s intentions.

     

    There may be a reason for this ambiguity:  it could be because the Committee isn’t sure what’s going on, either. The Fed is notoriously poor at forecasting the economy and the current mixed bag of indicators doesn’t make it any easier, especially if you start off by ruling out forecasting a downturn. A study by researchers at the San Francisco Fed showed that since 2007, the FOMC has been “persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth.”[i] The previous year’s most recent annualized quarterly growth rate accounts for 62% of the variance in the FOMC’s forecasts even though there is little correlation between the quarterly growth rate at the end of one year and the actual growth rate over the next year, according to this study. In other words, despite the dozens and dozens of PhD economists at the Fed slogging away at forecasting the economy, the group responsible for steering the world’s largest economy basically makes policy using the rule of thumb that the future will be pretty much like the recent past.

     

    In fact, it seems that the market is better at forecasting what the FOMC will do than the FOMC itself is! Note how much higher the Committee’s forecasts for rates at the end of 2015 were than the market’s.

     

     

    The bottom line is that whether they hike again in March depends on the data, as usual. We now look to Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress on Feb. 10th for some clarity, but I doubt if we will get clarity then either, because I doubt if she has any clarity to give. This is only realistic, because in fact the economic signs are indeed mixed at the moment.

     

    Is this ambiguity good or bad for the dollar? I believe that as long as they don’t rule out further rate hikes or change their forecasts, it should be dollar-positive in that the Fed remains more hawkish than the market. Moreover, the monetary policy divergence theme remains intact on the ECB’s side, if not the Fed’s. Nonetheless, that is all in the price already and so should not be much of a factor for the dollar’s future direction. We’ll have to see how the dots fall in March.

     

    [i] Lansing, Kevin and Benjamin Pyle. 2015. “Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth.” FRBSF Economic Letter 2015-03. Available on the web at https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/february/economic-growth-projections-optimism-federal-reserve/

  • Facing the same problems, central banks decide to wait and see

     

    Both the ECB and the Bank of Canada remained on hold this week, but they both showed a bias for easing. The common point from their analysis was how both economies are being buffeted by the crisis in emerging markets and the collapse of oil prices. ECB President Draghi listed “uncertainty about emerging market economies’ growth prospects” and “volatility in financial and commodity markets” as two of the biggest factors causing heightened uncertainty, while BoC Gov. Poloz was more specific in mentioning “recent developments in China.” Of course falling oil prices hit the two areas in opposite ways:  Draghi noted that lower oil prices should help consumers and companies, while Poloz said the BoC Governing Council focused its discussions on the implications of oil for the Canadian economy – one assumes not on how beneficial these implications would be. 

     

    One other notable difference is that the fall in oil prices has recently had a different impact on Canadian inflation than on Eurozone inflation. In past years, higher oil prices have meant higher inflation in Canada as they boosted the Canadian economy, while lower prices naturally meant lower energy costs and lower inflation – just like in Europe. But recently, the collapse in oil prices has been enough to send the currency plunging, and that has pushed up the price of imports, including food. The result is that Canadian inflation has actually been rising recently (watch Friday’s CI for December).

     

     

    This creates somewhat of a policy dilemma for Canada. On the one hand, the economy is slowing and lower rates may be necessary to support business. On the other hand, that would probably weaken the currency further and push inflation up more (although at 1.4% it still has some way to go before it breaks out of the 1%-3% target range). My guess is that they will probably stand pat for some time further while they wait to see what kind of fiscal plan the new government comes up with. Meanwhile though I expect the market to do their work for them by continuing to weaken their currency as oil prices fall.

     

    In the Eurozone I don’t see any such dilemma. So far the ECB’s QE program seems to be boosting bank lending without causing any harm to the average individual, as retail bank deposits have yet to go negative. Oil prices are now far below what the ECB staff assumed when they made their forecasts in December, and the International Energy Agency Tuesday warned that the market “could drown in oversupply” as Iran resumes supplying world markets.  It’s quite likely that they will have to lower their 2016 inflation forecast of 1.0% at the March meeting, and probably the 1.6% forecast for 2017 too. Can they assume that oil prices recover by 2018? Nobody can assume anything nowadays. Draghi himself said that “the credibility of the ECB would be harmed if we weren’t ready to revise the monetary policy stance.” Of course, he also hinted that there would be more of a move in December than there actually was, but it will be hard to ignore yet another round of cuts in the inflation forecast within the time horizon of the ECB’s monetary policy. Further easing from the ECB should reaffirm and reinforce the “monetary policy divergence” theme that has been pushing EUR/USD down for some time.

     

    Next week there are two more central bank meetings:  the Fed on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. The Fed is likely to stand pat, as not enough time nor data has gone by since the last meeting to conclude that further tightening is warranted. The Bank of Japan though faces a dilemma, though the opposite one from Canada’s:  its currency is strengthening even while inflation is slowing. They too may choose to stand and wait at this meeting, but I think eventually they will have to take further action to prevent the safe-haven yen from becoming a danger to themselves.

  • Kirsten Donovan Please help me welcome Marshall Gittler, Head of Investment Research at FXPRIMUS, welcome Marshall, and thank you for joining us this morning.

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Thanks for inviting me, Kirsten!

     

    Kirsten Donovan Good to have you back. Folks, if you have any FX-related questions for Marshall, do post them up and don't be shy.

     

    But to start with, it all feels a little bit better out there this morning after the Chinese trade data. What's your take, are we just pausing for breath, or is it time for a reversal of some of the moves we saw last week?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest I was surprised by the data -- not only did it run counter to the market's expectations, but it also differed from what other countries are seeing. South Korea for example showed exports falling at an accelerating pace in December.

     

    The US is also reporting weaker imports. And the Baltic freight index has been down every day this year and is moving further and further into record low territory, indicating no pick-up in demand for freight.

     

    I would hesitate to make a big change in my investment outlook based on one print of data from China.

     

    Kirsten Donovan So does that mean you see more carnage ahead?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Yes, indeed. I think the slowdown in China will continue, with all the concomitant effects that we've been seeing around the world.

     

    The weaker yuan may boost exports slightly, but where is the increased demand coming from? Few countries are reporting any great increase in retail sales.

     

    Kirsten Donovan You mentioned your investment outlook....  what currencies are you liking at the moment?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Macy's announced on January 6 it will be shuttering stores and laying off staff.

     

    Yes...it's easy to find things to sell. What to buy in this environment?

     

    The dollar is my #1 choice, although that may just be confirmation bias.

     

    After that, I think it's relative trades -- buy SEK vs EUR, buy MXN vs CAD.

     

    I think the market is looking for a turnaround in oil prices by the end of the year, which of course is possible -- it probably won't go to zero so it can't go down indefinitely!

     

    Kirsten Donovan There was a forecast of $10 yesterday...

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest But I think that will take some time, it's not a 1H event maybe a Q4 event, so for now I"m bearish the oil commodities.

     

    $10/bbl...getting back to 1970s levels!

     

    Kirsten Donovan Leaving aside the enthusiasm for catchy headlines, we laughed at GS' $20 forecast not so long ago but it's not looking so ridiculous at the moment

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Not impossible as the world starts running out of storage space. I think there are some problems shutting down oil supply and so we may see a "Sorcerers' Apprentice" event.

     

    Kirsten Donovan What's that then?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Personally, I laughed at their $200 forecast in 2008.

     

    Kirsten Donovan bless

     

    Uresh Perera Hi Marshall what's the outlook for european equity markets

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Ah, I'm showing my age...and the fact that I have two girls. The Sorcerers' Apprentice is a Disney cartoon about Mickey Mouse as a sorcerers' apprentice who gets the brooms to fetch water from the well for him, but doesn't know the spell to get the brooms to stop. As a result his house gets flooded with water until the sorcerer comes home.

     

    European equity markets: seem to be underpinned by QE, but I think there could be problems ahead.

     

    Kirsten Donovan ah, of course! I was thinking of the most excellent book by that name

     

    these aren't problems now re equities?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest I wonder just how long Germany, one of the world's greatest exporters, can stay apart from this decline in global trade that's hitting Asian countries now.

     

    Kirsten Donovan Marc posted a chart earlier re the size of trade links with China, and Germany certainly stood out from the European countries

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Germany exports just under 50% of GDP.

     

    If China and Korea are suffering from slowing trade, why shouldn't Germany?

     

    Uresh Perera That's why they need the euro at 0.95 cents

     

    Ian Sapiano Hi Marshall, what are your views on EUR/USD for 2016 ?

     

    Hemendra Bhatia Marshall, where you see CNY going? Can it go beyond 6.8 as well?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Also while the surveys, such as PMIs, have been pretty good for Europe, a lot of the hard data, such as manufacturing & IP, have been weak.

     

    Kirsten Donovan ok, a couple of questions from the floor there..

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest EUR/USD: I'm bearish, like most of the market. I think ECB will have to increase its QE at some point, while I think the market is underestimating the FOMC's tightening moves.l

     

    maybe we don't get the 4 rate hikes that the FOMC is forecasting, but I think we'll get three -- which is one more than the market looks for now.

     

    Meanwhile, I think the disinflationary trend around the world is set to stay, and the ECB will be required to lean against that.

     

    Ian Sapiano Thanks Marshall

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Oddly enough, the BIS is saying that deflation might not be that bad, and that it might be caused by global & not local factors as well as demographic trends, so central banks really can't do that much about it. But it will take a long time before central banks admit to anything like that.

     

    https://fatasmihov.blogspot.com.cy/2016/01/bis-redefines-inflation-again.html

     

    Kirsten Donovan Won't we see inflation start to head back towards target *if* we start to see the oil price rise?

     

    Ian Sapiano Thanks for that. Though I agree with you .. it is not something that the central banks will buy any time soon

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest As for USD/CNY, I think it's headed higher. I don't have a target but I think all the signals are that the PBoC is preparing to let CNY float more vs USD.

     

    Uresh Perera And what would be your view on the cable for 3/6/12 months Marshall ?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Yes, if we see the oil price rise...but when will that be?

     

    Sorry one second, I just want to continue on CNY

     

    The PBoC's new focus on a basket of currencies for its target instead of just USD/CNY is its way of signalling that it will allow USD/CNY to move higher in order to keep the trade-weighted value of the currency more stable. This makes a lot of sense, as China does slightly more trade with Europe than with the US

     

    So I think they have prepared the market to accept a higher USD/CNY and are going to allow that in order to keep exports from collapsing. Makes sense from their point of view. They can't stimulate domestic demand enough to take up the slack from falling overseas demand.

     

    Sorry, now onto cable: a perfect storm for what was one of the FX market's favorite currencies just a few months ago!

     

    Hemendra Bhatia How likely is 1.35?

     

    Uresh Perera No prob - this is little while ago - Credit Suisse cut its 12-M GBP/USD forecast to 1.33 from 1.45. Cut 3-M forecast to 1.40 from 1.48 (from DR)

     

    Hemendra I would buy at 1.40.

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest The biggest fiscal tightening of any G10 country this year, record current account deficits, slowing manufacturing, slowing gains in wages, no inflation, and a referendum coming up just when free movement of people -- a major fear of UK voters -- has become a big issue on teh continent.

     

    There's a lot of talk now about the 30-year support line.

     

    Thinking back about it, many years ago when I was a journalist I wrote an article about planning for a "parity party" in the UK -- I think that was 1984. But cable only got down to 1.03 and then jumped 3 cents in one day...never reached that level again.

     

    I think the 30-year trendline is around 1.4380 now. It briefly broke through that level yesterday.

     

    Kirsten Donovan How much are Brexit risks priced in?

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest Good question -- not much, I don't think. That may be because the date for the referendum hasn't been set yet.

     

    The pattern we saw with the Scottish vote was that people really didn't pay much attention until a few weeks before. Then they paid a lot of attention. I think this is more on the radar screen now, though.

     

    The thing is, it's hard to buy options without knowing an expiry date.

     

    One thing I would stress here is just how unreliable polls have been recently.

     

    Kirsten Donovan Hmm, good point re the options

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest The Scottish vote poll, the UK election poll, the Greek referendum poll...they've all been bad.

     

    Kirsten Donovan true that

     

    Marshall, how time flies, it's 1030 and that means it's time to let you go

     

    Thank you for joining us here this morning in GMF and hopefully we see you soon

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest So if the polls show only a narrow victory for remaining in the EU, I'd pay the premium -- remember that EVERY poll showed nobody winning the last UK election.

     

    Yes I hear my lunch calling to me...thank you very much for inviting me and for your questions!

     

    Kirsten Donovan

     

    Marshall Gittler FXPRIMUS - Thomson Reuters Guest I look forward to visiting with everyone again.

     

     

  • How Did Pundits Do in 2015? Not Very Well, As Usual

    This first comment of the year is always the most fun one for me. I’m going to compare what the market was forecasting for 2015 with what actually happened. The result, as usual, was that the pundits did poorly. Flipping a coin would have resulted in a pretty similar result and only cost you whatever the coin was worth.

    For “market forecast,” I’m using the median consensus forecast from Bloomberg on 31 December 2014.  

    To start with, here’s a graph comparing what the market forecast the spot return would be for each of 31 major currencies against the dollar (the Y axis) vs what the spot return actually was (the X axis). (Spot return is just the change in the price of the currency.) If the market forecast was exactly correct, then the dot would fall on the yellow line.

     

     

    The results were not particularly inspiring. The market only got the direction against the dollar of 17 of the 31 currencies correct or 55%. This about what one would expect by flipping a coin.

    The biggest errors were BRL (expected:  -1.7%%; actual: -33%), ZAR (+0.6% vs -25%), COP (+2.6% vs -25%), RUB (+16.5% vs -20%), MXN (+9.3% vs -14%) and TRY (-0.6% vs -20%). Clearly the market underestimated the decline in commodity prices, particularly oil, and the sell-off in EM currencies, not to mention the political turmoil in Turkey. What this suggests is that the slowdown in China and the sharp fall in oil prices were major surprises to the FX market.

    Also note that almost all the currencies are either on or above the yellow line, meaning that they either met or were weaker than the market consensus. Only CHF (which abandoned its peg vs EUR) and JPY performed better than expected. That shows how the market underestimated the dollar’s rally in general.  

    If we look at total return (spot return plus interest income), the picture is even worse. In this case, the market got only 13 of 30 currencies correct, or 43%. Apparently the errors in forecasting interest were added onto the errors in forecasting currency rates, rather than cancelling each other out.

    RUB was the major outlier; the market expected a total return of 45% but in fact it lost 8.5%. Many of the other commodity currencies also did much worse than expected on a total return basis.

    One interesting point:  ARS had the worst spot return (-35%) but the best total return (13%) of any of the currencies. It happened in 2013 as well that ARS was both the worst-performing and best-performing major currency in the world at the same time.

    This analysis could be depressing for retail investors. You might think, if the highly paid experts working at the big investment banks who spend all their time thinking about FX can’t do any better than flipping a coin, how on earth can you? But I look at it the other way. This analysis suggests that even an amateur has a fighting chance against the experts, because the experts (and I include myself in this group) don’t really know for sure what will happen, either!

  • When will be the Fed’s next move?

    Now that the Fed has started its process of “normalizing” interest rates, the question the market is focusing on is:  when will be the Fed’s next move? I expect that there will be a period of waiting and watching while the FOMC members assess whether inflation is going to reach their target. If they decide it is, then they will tighten further and USD will appreciate; if not, then we may have reached almost the maximum for “policy divergence” and USD could weaken. But while they are waiting and watching, the dollar is likely to trade in a range.

    Fed Chair Yellen spelled out in broad terms the conditions necessary for further tightening in her opening remarks at the press conference following the recent FOMC meeting. She said that “the process of normalizing interest rates is likely to proceed gradually, although future policy actions will obviously depend on how the economy evolves.” In other words, we are not to expect a rate hike at each meeting, as happened in the 2004 tightening cycle; each meeting is “live,” i.e. they will have to make a fresh decision at each meeting.

    Under the Fed’s dual mandate, it is required to pursue “maximum employment” and “stable prices.” The former they define as 4.8% to 5.0%, which means that with the unemployment rate currently at 5.0%, they’ve met their goal. The latter they define as “inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures.” They’re not there yet by any means. That means progress on inflation will determine whether they hike or not. Inflation data may therefore supplant the monthly nonfarm payrolls as the key indicator for the markets.

    With inflation taking the spotlight, the monthly personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator, the Fed’s main target, becomes an even more important indicator than before. The figure for November, which was released Wednesday, showed the overall deflator rising 0.4% yoy – a welcome acceleration from +0.2% yoy in October but still close to zero -- while the core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained at 1.3%, well below the 2% target.

    While their target is defined as the PCE, the market assumes they look more at core PCE. The recent movements of this indicator are not encouraging. The three-month change annualized hit the target earlier this year, but has since declined and is now bouncing around 1.2% -- exactly where the yoy rate of change is.

     

    Given the relatively stable inflation rate, I would expect a period of stability on the FOMC too. I don’t see much chance of another rate hike at the January meeting; I think the earliest would be the next meeting after that, in March. That means we may be in for a period of range trading on the dollar, at least against the major currencies.

    I still believe that the Committee wants to raise rates further in order to normalize their monetary policy, but they need to move within the context of their mandate. That means they will be watching the inflation numbers carefully – and so should we.

  • South African Rand:  stay away!

    There’s been a lot of attention focused on the commodity currencies recently as commodity prices dive. I took a look at the South African Rand (ZAR) to see how it behaves relative to various commodities, stock market indices and interest-rate spreads and found out the following:

    1. 1) The strongest correlation is clearly with stock markets, notably the MSCI Emerging Market stock market index but also the S&P 500. As such, it appears that ZAR is a typical growth-sensitive EM currency.
    2. 2) It is more sensitive to movements in industrial metals than precious metals, even though the latter are a much bigger share of the country’s export basket. That probably ties in with metals as an indicator of global growth
    3. 3) The spread between official interest rates in the US and South Africa is little use in determining the exchange rate. On the contrary, the two-year spread actually works in reverse:  that is, ZAR tends to weaken against the USD when the spread widens. That suggests that the causality runs the other way, i.e. the spread is driven by the FX rate rather than the FX rate being influenced by the spread. Note though that I only looked at nominal interest rate differentials. Other research found that real interest rate differentials (that is, after adjusting for inflation and default risk) are a significant determinant of the exchange rate.

     

    The one thing that these sorts of studies don’t pick up is politics. Emerging markets have been described as "those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes,” and that certainly holds true for ZAR. (RUB and MXN are also EM currencies, but they are more closely correlated with oil than ZAR is.) For example, we saw barely a ripple in CAD recently when the Liberal Party ousted the Conservatives after nine years in office. On the other hand, on Wednesday USD/ZAR jumped after the well-respected Finance Minister was replaced, reportedly in part because of his opposition to a transaction involving a friend of the PM. ZAR is now at a record low.

    My conclusion from this analysis is that when the commodity currencies are weak, ZAR is likely to be particularly weak. That’s because of second-round effects of commodity prices on local politics:  low tax revenues and falling employment in the mining sector are likely to increase political instability. That’s why even though ZAR offers relatively high interest rates, I would not recommend carry trades using it at the moment.

  • Thinking about the direction of currencies in 2016, we have to start with the question: what will be the main themes likely to persist throughout the year? The past year was dominated by fears about global growth, particularly China; the decline in commodity prices, particularly oil; and the dénouement of policy divergence between the US and the rest of the world, particularly the EU.

    The global economy doesn’t hit a reset button on 1 January and so I expect these trends to continue at least into the first half of the year and probably longer. Specifically, I expect Chinese growth to slow further as the government continues its multi-year effort to restructure the economy. That means the price of commodities used for capital investment, such as iron ore and copper, are likely to remain under pressure for longer than those for day-to-day use, such as oil. The oil-sensitive currencies (CAD, NOK, MXN, RUB) may therefore recover vis-à-vis the AUD, CLP and ZAR.

    One side-effect is that EM countries, particularly China and the oil producers, may continue to run down their FX reserves. Their sale of US bonds should keep US interest rates well above those of other countries and support the dollar.

    Slower Chinese growth and weak commodity prices also imply no quick return to inflation. The ECB and BoJ are therefore likely to ease further. I expect the BoJ to follow the lead of the ECB and SNB and to lower rates into negative territory for the first time in that country. That would probably propel USD/JPY higher still.

    At the same time, the FOMC thinks rates will rise much more quickly than the market does. Assuming the Committee is even only half correct, that means further monetary policy divergence and a lower EUR/USD.

    As for new trends, watch the refugee crisis in Europe. This issue will add to the pressure on the EUR as the institutional foundations of the EU starts to crumble: first the Shengen Agreement, then the debt limits, and then what? Furthermore, political disarray and high levels of immigration on the continent increase the possibility that the UK votes for a Brexit – another big uncertainty for the market, and one that is liable to weigh on the pound.

    The US would seem to be an island of stability in this uncertain world. However, the impact of higher US rates and the Presidential election in November is likely to add to the global uncertainty. Still, the economics and the politics favor the dollar in 2016, in my view.

Sebarang pendapat, berita, kajian, analisis, harga atau maklumat lain yang terkandung di sini ini diberikan sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan tidak mengandungi nasihat pelaburan. FXPRIMUS tidak menerima liabiliti untuk sebarang kerugian atau kerosakan, termasuk tanpa had kepada, sebarang kerugian keuntungan, yang boleh berlaku secara langsung atau tidak langsung daripada penggunaan atau kebergantungan pada maklumat ini.

 

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