FXPRIMUS Weekly is your comprehensive technical and fundamental trading guide for the coming week! Access the latest news and in-depth technical indicator data, delivered by our market experts each and every week!
With a new week comes new market opportunities. Let’s take a look back at the week behind us, and get a glimpse into the instruments and events to watch in the days ahead.
As always, don’t forget to follow our COVID-19 Market News page for the pandemic-related stories as they happen.
Catching you up on last week:
• Bitcoin’s halving, the cryptocurrency event of the year that takes place every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), took effect on Monday, lowering the BTC block reward to 6.25
• Weak employment data — Australia’s Employment Change showed 594k lost jobs over April, from the previous month’s +700k, though the Unemployment Rate came in at 6.2% compared to the 8.3% expected.
• A further 3 million jobless claims were filed, bring the total number of Americans claiming for first-time unemployment to 36.5 million over a span of eight weeks.
This week, keep an eye on:
• Walmart posts its Q1 earnings before Tuesday’s market open which will give an insider view as to how the retailer has adapted to the pandemic. Target and Alibaba post their own quarterly financials later in the week
• WTI’s June contract expires Tuesday — according to Reuters , the CME, brokerages and the US Oil Fund LP have all taken measures to reduce open positions ahead of expiry
• Fed Chairman Powell testifies again this week, after warning last Wednesday that further spending may be necessary to see an economic recovery sooner rather than later
Let’s take a closer look…
Each week, we take a closer look at the markets that move, and those you may have missed!
The dollar strengthened after Powell committed to avoiding a negative interest rate. After some volatility at the beginning of March, DXY has stabilized within a technical wedge, close to the upper bound of the previous long-term rising channel; 99.40–100.65 are the two extremes to monitor right now. A break to the upside would need a confirmation above 101, and downside, the support will be at 98.75.
XAU was approaching the end of the consolidation triangle in which it was trading, and after Wednesday, it looks to have broken to the upside and retested twice at 1710. Trading above the 1740–1750 area will be the final confirmation of a continuation in the upside move. If the price were to be rejected and trade down to 1690, it would be a short-term bearish sign.
The Nasdaq100, like other US indices, has been losing momentum over the past three weeks. It seems like it has lost the steepest (grey) channel and is now trading within a lower-inclined one (green), just above the 61.8% Fib ratio and the 9,000 psychological level. Only a break to the downside of 8850, and 8750 will bring in more mid-term weakness; right now the price is above both the 21 and 200 SMA. To the upside, watch 9160 and 9350.
Technically, after the sharp decline started in late January, the share price has rebounded and has been trading in a clear channel for two months and now facing a down trendline, around $107. A break to the upside would be a constructive signal, with the first target at $110.15, then $115.20. In the event that the price was rejected, $98.75 is a long-term support/resistance level, and if broken, there may be room to $91.50 followed by lows. Currently, the price is trading above its 66 SMA on this 4h chart, while indicators are neutral.
Save The Date(s)
Here are the reports, meetings and other fundamentals to follow this week
|May 19, 2020||06:00||UK Employment Change||GBP|
|May 19, 2020||09:00||ZEW Economic Sentiment Index||EUR|
|May 20, 2020||18:00||FOMC Minutes||USD|
|May 21, 2020||13:45||Markit Manufacturing PMI||USD|
|May 22, 2020||11:30||ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts||EUR|
*The above times are in GMT
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained here are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. FXPRIMUS does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.